September 20, 2017, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the “Federal Bulletin” issued management regulations (2017-20050): the exclusion of Spirulina extract as a pigment additive certification procedures, allowing it to use shell boiled eggs (21CFR73.530), the amount of use in accordance with good production standards.

This provision was entered into force on 3 July 2017 and the effective date was confirmed again on 3 August 2017.

Plastic consumption season comes, the downstream plastic sheeting rate continues to increase, usually this trend will continue until the end of October or early November, at this stage, plastic demand will be significantly improved. The second quarter of the device centralized maintenance makes petrochemical stocks quickly digested, has recently been maintained at a low level, then the peak season, petrochemical stocks is difficult to accumulate, and even further to the possibility of inventory, so low-shelf status of short-term difficult to change, this plastic price will be Produce strong support.

However, plastic production has returned to high, lucrative support device high load operation, is expected to plastic production in the third quarter will be at a high level. In terms of imports, there is also a large increase in the amount of imports due to the substantial increase in trade profits. Once the import flows are concentrated, the domestic stocks will accumulate rapidly and the price will be downward.

The season has come, and demand has improved

Usually in May is the most light production of plastic film production period, the device operating rate for the lowest level during the year, since June, July start operating rate bottomed out, and began to continue to improve until the beginning of November to reach the highest level in the year. As the downstream companies need to purchase raw materials in advance, therefore, plastic demand in September gradually into the consumption season, and continued to October, while the corresponding demand for plastic in May is the most weak period. Although the seasonal seasonal law of packaging film is not significant, but the three or four quarters is gradually increasing the process.

Second-quarter intensive installation equipment, PE device operating rate dropped to a minimum of about 70%, therefore, despite the consumption in the off-season, but the supply of shrinkage makes the petrochemical stocks fell rapidly. In late July, with the pre-maintenance device restart, the supply gradually increased, while the market demand is still weak, petrochemical stocks accumulated slightly, but still in the low, and significantly lower than the level of the same period last year, which is supporting the sharp rise in plastic main reason. Then, into the peak season, demand improvement will help petrochemical stocks remain at a low level. This year by the impact of environmental protection, season demand started relatively slow, but the production of plastic sheeting has just need the nature of raw materials demand will gradually increase.

Lucrative or lead to supply pressure

At present, the overall crude oil is still in the low stage of oscillation, oil olefins cost is low, and since June, plastic prices rose sharply, oil production of considerable profits, August average profit of 3,000 yuan / ton.

Coal production costs of olefins, although the coal prices rose significantly increased, but the strong polyolefin makes the production of coal olefins is still rich, August average profit of 3600 yuan / ton or more.

PE enterprises in the high profits to stimulate the production of full power, the recent PE overall operating rate remained at 90% or more, part of the original planned maintenance of the device also delayed parking is expected in the third quarter PE production increased by 7% in the second quarter, LLDPE was 11%. PE maintenance in the fourth quarter less, and Shenhua Ning coal production, so PE and LLDPE production will remain high.

Import, first of all, according to seasonal rules, usually the third quarter imports will be due to the consumption season significantly higher than the ring. Second, since June LLDPE imports began to profit, and the recent profit has been maintained at a high level, so high profits will inevitably lead to increased imports, which is very similar to the situation in the fourth quarter of last year, if a large influx of imported goods, plastic prices Will be under pressure, but the current hurricane affected by the United States exports to China a limited number.

Operational strategy

Short-term plastic is still the demand for season support, the price adjustment can be considered after the end of the bargain to do more, but after the peak season, the supply pressure, when the plastic or there will be a larger decline in the market,

In addition, from the seasonal pattern of demand, 1801 is the peak season contract, and 1805 is the off-season contract, while the short-term low inventory, and there is tired after the peak season is expected, so more than 1801 empty 1805 contract sets can participate.

Need to pay attention to the risk factors: First, do short-term risk, such as the demand for fake season, imports soared. Second, the risk of short season after the risk, such as the accident occurred in the installation of the accident, the output is less than expected.

In the haze management and environmental incentives, the traditional high-polluting paint is accelerating water-based paint and other emerging paint instead. Dai Guoqing, deputy secretary general of China Chemical Industry Association, said that in 2016, the output of paint enterprises above the national scale was 18,977,800 tons, up by 7.2% year on year. The first half of this year, the paint industry under construction, production and planning projects, water paint accounted for up to 70%.

Many people do not know that the paint can be seen everywhere is one of the factors causing haze. As the use of paint need to add organic solvents, the release of a large number of volatile organic compounds, and automobile exhaust, industrial waste gas together, and ultimately the formation of ozone and PM2.5 pollution. And the water can only be diluted with water, resulting in volatile organic matter less than 1/10 of the paint.

“Water-based paint industry is an important means of transformation to the green environment.” Dai Guoqing held in the day of the first water paint Expo, said the recent efforts to increase environmental protection, China has imposed by the paint consumption tax, the development of key downstream paint industry Air pollutant discharge standards and a series of initiatives to accelerate the paint to the paint changes.

“The current water paint in the steel structure, wood furniture, automotive and other industries to promote the use of a relatively high degree of ‘oil to water’ wave has begun to paint upstream and downstream industry chain expansion.” China Chemical Industry Association, deputy director of the Institute of Water Painting Said that is expected after 5 years, China’s water paint market demand will be more than 6.3 million tons.

According to the reporter to understand, the National Stadium “Bird’s Nest” recently updated film, on the choice of environmentally friendly water paint as a paint. Street streets everywhere to see the shared cycling “yellow car”, but also brush the water paint.

Ministry of Industry and other issued by the “key industries volatile organic matter reduction action plan” clearly requires that by 2018, low (no) volatile organic compounds, the proportion of green paint products to reach more than 60%. The industry generally believe that there is a lot of water paint to promote space.

“China’s water use paint in 2016 about 1.89 million tons, accounting for less than 10% of the proportion of the entire coating industry.” Hong Dingyi that, with the improvement of water paint performance, in the past that is difficult to replace the petrochemical, railway, The field of anti-corrosion coatings, now nearly 70% can also be replaced with water-based paint.

As of September 25 closing, butadiene FOB Korea 1549.00-1551.00 US dollars / ton; butadiene CFR China reported 1599.00-1601.00 US dollars / ton.

As of September 25, butadiene FOB Rotterdam spot 1198.00-1202.00 US dollars / ton; butadiene FD Northwest Europe spot 948.00-952.00 euros / ton.

September 25, 2017 European strategic small metal cobalt ingots (99.3%) offer 28.5 US dollars / lb, unchanged from the previous day; electrolytic cobalt (99.8%) offer 30.25 US dollars / lb.

LME nickel and zinc rose on Monday, after a sharp decline in late last week, copper prices held steady, but China’s demand worries and the dollar stronger limit gains.

“We are trying to build the bottom because the price has fallen from the recent highs,” said Robin Bhar, head of metal at Societe Generale.

Three-month zinc did not reach a deal, but the offer rose 2.4 percent to $ 3,103 a tonne, dropping to $ 3,000 a week on Friday.

Three-month nickel rose 0.5% to $ 10,475 a tonne, after falling over 8% on Thursday and Friday, when the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised its handling fee to limit speculative trading.

Three-month copper rose 0.1% to $ 6,460 a tonne. Hit $ 6,366 on Friday, the lowest level since August 16.

Three-month aluminum fell 0.5 percent to $ 2,147 a tonne; three-month lead rose 1 percent to $ 2,507 a tonne; three-month tin rose 0.2 percent to $ 20,575 per tonne.

Beginning in mid-August this year, silence for half a year of the styrene market began to force, as of mid-September just a month, or up to 20%. Once reached 11850 yuan / ton high, from the highest price this year, 12,000 yuan / ton only one step away. The current round of styrene prices rose by the domestic part of the device parking, downstream ABS demand and other comprehensive effects, which is expected to reduce the import volume has played a vital role in driving.

As we all know, for a long time, China has been a net importer of styrene, although in recent years, domestic production has been launched, making the domestic supply of styrene has increased, but by the end of 2016, styrene imports are still about 40% Changes in the international market for the domestic market trend of a great impact on the styrene.

August European market supply continued to tighten, in which the French Gonfreville styrene device suffered force majeure, part of the styrene plant plans to repair and replace the catalyst in September, the European market supply tightening, the price soared. As the price in Europe is much higher than that in the US and Asia, and freight costs between Europe and the United States are lower than those between the US and Asia, most US traders have chosen to deploy their goods to Europe, thereby reducing their supply to the Asian market.

China’s major sources of imports in the United States, in late August, affected by Hurricane Harvey, Texas and Louisiana area suffered heavy losses, the United States has a total of 4.8 million tons of styrene production capacity, and these devices are located in the above mentioned Affected areas. Affected by this, Benzene and Lee Andre Basel located in the local total of 2.47 million tons of equipment to stop, other manufacturers part of the load operation.

In addition, the beginning of June on originating in South Korea, Taiwan and the United States imports of styrene anti-dumping program investigation also plays a supporting role in the market traders mentality. For a long time, the above areas have been the main source of imports of styrene in China. In this case from January to July this year, for example, South Korea accounted for 36.0% of the total import territory, the United States accounted for 9.1%, Taiwan accounted for 6.3%, the three together accounted for half of the source of imports, if the final determination of the region There is anti-dumping behavior, the domestic supply pattern of styrene will be a big change, and domestic products will become the biggest profit.

In the long run, with the gradual release of domestic production capacity, the international market to guide the domestic price trend will be reduced, the right to speak of domestic products will gradually increase. 2016, the domestic production capacity compared to the previous year, a substantial increase of 865,000 tons to 8.55 million tons. In 2017, Jiujiang Petrochemical 80,000 tons / year plant and Ningbo Branch yuan 120,000 tons / year device has been put into operation, the latter will also have CNOOC Whitening two 630,000 tons / year plant and Qingdao Alkali 50 million tons / year device plan Put into operation, if the device put into operation, the end of 2017 the domestic styrene production capacity will reach 9.88 million tons, the industry self-sufficiency rate to further improve.

At present, the domestic styrene market is still largely affected by the international import market, the latter if the anti-dumping is established, coupled with a substantial increase in domestic production capacity, the styrene market self-sufficiency rate will be effectively improved, domestic products in the market to further strengthen the right to speak, but Subject to the import supply is still a certain unique advantages, domestic import substitution process will be long and full of uncertainty.

Wang Haihua and the progress of production will help to find and extract oil and gas from the world’s major reserves. At the same time, the demand for petroleum products has increased in every corner of the world. But the supply and demand situation is rarely concentrated in the same place. As a result, transportation is essential to ensure the reliable and affordable flow of oil. Tankers, railways and pipelines have proven to be effective and economical means of connecting oil supply and demand. Supply pipelines and railways to transport crude oil from the production area to the port loading and unloading station. The tanker then delivers the crude oil directly to the demand side pipe connected to the refinery that converts the raw material into a useful product.

In recent years, the US tight oil supply continued to grow, by 2035, the US oil production will increase to 12 million barrels / day, natural gas growth will be more significant, 2035, natural gas production from the current 72 billion cubic feet / day To 110 billion cubic feet per day to 131 billion cubic feet per day. Natural gas will also develop with the production of natural gas. Growing energy production depends on an expanding network of energy infrastructure, including railways, pipelines and maritime transport.

Tanker

Waterways are the most effective way to transport everyday products (from oil, food, coal and agricultural products to steel, sand, chemicals and other construction supplies) to the rest of the United States. The current advanced tanker is a safe combination of computer-aided design products, more powerful, more mobile, more durable. The maritime (tanker or barge) has long been an important part of the trade in crude oil and its products for certain areas (especially from Alaska to the West Coast and from Vancouver to the United States). For the US Midwest and the Gulf Coast producers, it is becoming increasingly attractive to transport crude oil through waterways. In 2013, 16% of the crude oil is transported by water to the refinery.

Pipe

The United States has more than 190,000 miles of liquid pipelines and more than 300,000 miles of natural gas pipelines, which are the primary means of moving petroleum products to the consumer market.

Pipelines can extend tens to hundreds or even thousands of miles long. The United States in 2013 had a total of 19,239 miles of liquid pipelines, including 60,911 miles of crude oil pipelines, 63532 miles of refined petroleum product pipelines for the transportation of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other refined products and 62,742 miles of natural gas , Ethane and other industrial raw materials. The US Natural Gas Pipeline Network is a highly integrated transmission and distribution network that can deliver natural gas to almost any location in 48 states. It consists of more than 210 natural gas piping systems and 300,000 miles of interstate and state internal pipelines.

The cost of transporting crude oil or petroleum products through pipelines is only a fraction of the cost of other modes of transport. The cost of transporting crude oil through railways is typically $ 10 to $ 15 per barrel, while pipeline transportation costs less than $ 5 a barrel.

The United States has a wide range of natural gas infrastructure that can effectively produce, store and transport natural gas. The United States is the world’s largest natural gas consumer, with the recent shale gas production growth, the United States has become the world’s largest producer of natural gas. Its developed natural gas pipeline system will supply the natural gas delivery to the major markets and smaller markets. While most of the pipes are relatively short (hundreds of miles or less), some of the major pipelines can extend over thousands of miles.

In 2014, nearly half a million miles of liquid and natural gas pipelines in the United States delivered 16.2 billion barrels of crude oil and petroleum products and 27.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas at a security rate of 99.99 percent. The United States needs more pipelines to keep up with growing demand for production and consumption.

Rail transport

Railway infrastructure to support oil and gas, manufacturing, agriculture and other industries transportation needs. Railways are safe and effective means of transporting crude oil and other petroleum products.

Technological advances have increased crude oil production in shale deposits and made the United States the world’s largest oil and gas producer. The Bakken Group, located in North Dakota, Montana and Canada, has seen crude oil production from about 200,000 b / d in 2007 to more than 1.2 million barrels per day by 2015. Because the US liquid pipeline network was built to link oil and oil and oil production and imports from the Gulf Coast and refineries and demand centers in the central and western regions, there was no pipeline to transport light Bakken crude oil to those with high demand , The operator has been passing Bakken crude oil from the production area to the refinery through railways. The railroad was initially used only to transport crude oil from Bakken to the eastern refinery. With the increase in Bakken crude oil production, rail transport in Bakken exceeded 2014 Billion barrels, since the increase of 16 times since 2009. Other regions of the producers have also expanded their rail capacity to transport crude oil to oil refineries on the eastern and western coasts. In just a few years, railways have become increasingly important alternative channels in areas where energy infrastructure is relatively scarce Of the transport channels, its handling capacity in the United States are improving. With these crude oil from domestic, crude oil imported from other countries to the East Coast refinery has fallen. Crude oil from the US shale zone to the West Coast refinery also offset the decline in crude oil production in California and Alaska. The railway will transport more than half of this crude oil to the east coast. Bakken crude oil increases the energy resources of the East Coast through rail transport and reduces the cost of home heating oil, gasoline and petroleum products.

As a result of its exponential growth, crude oil rail transport, which was previously considered too expensive to compete with the pipeline, has received serious attention. In 2008, the amount of crude oil transported by rail would be negligible (less than 9400 trucks). This situation began to change around 2010, from 2011 to significantly accelerated to 66,000 truck crude oil loading. In 2013, more than 430,000 trucks of crude oil were transported by rail, and by 2015, rail transport of oil accounted for about 8% of US oil production and a security rate of 99.99%.

As the railways can transport crude oil to any place, in the absence of pipeline facilities in the eastern and western coastal areas of the most competitive. Rail transport of crude oil in North Dakota dominated, 2013, 70% of the state’s crude oil is transported by rail, in October 2013 reached 80 million barrels per day peak, Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Wyoming And Utah, the amount of rail traffic is increasing rapidly.

Future trends

A secure, efficient and properly maintained reliable infrastructure system can reduce the cost of providing oil and gas and its products to consumers by reducing congestion, maximizing efficiency and preventing accidents. The US energy infrastructure system was originally intended to deliver oil and gas from coastal areas to refineries and inland areas. Today, energy revival in the United States is driven by a large amount of energy resources in inland rocks, including EagleFord and Barnett shale in Texas, Woodford shale in Oklahoma, Bakken shale in North Dakota, and Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Maryland and West Virginia Marcellus Shale. In order to take full advantage of its full potential, the United States needs to maintain its existing infrastructure and invest in new infrastructures to transport US resources from these inland areas to refineries and ultimately to consumers. While the decline in oil and natural gas prices affected by supply and demand has created a much uncertain environment for future energy investments, according to the API’s study of oil and gas infrastructure investments in 2017, Marcellus in the northeastern United States And the Utica shale zone and the West Texas Permian basin shale gas and dense oil production is the main driving force for the development of oil and gas infrastructure, oil and gas infrastructure development will continue for a long time, the oil and gas base The strong investment in the facility will have a significant positive impact on the US economy.

WASHINGTON continued to decline after the previous period, since September, the domestic price of ammonium phosphate stabilized stabilized. At present, the price of ammonium phosphate factory in more than 1800 ~ 1900 yuan (t price, the same below), East China compound fertilizer manufacturers to accept the goods in the 1950 yuan, the low end of 1920 ~ 1930 yuan.

There is four reasons for the price stabilization of monoammonium phosphate:

First, the overall fertilizer market by the impact of the trend. Fertilizer market trend this fall better than expected, urea mainstream ex-factory price from 1450 yuan rose to 1550 yuan, up to 100 yuan a month; potassium sulfate prices rose

More than 150 yuan; and ammonium diammonium phosphate prices are closely related to the diamine factory price raised to 2350 ~ 2450 yuan. Most of the fertilizer prices are rising, an ammonium prices are difficult to fall.

Second, compound fertilizer business rate to improve. Environmental protection inspection of the impact of complex fertilizer is limited, autumn fertilizer sales into the final, winter fertilizer sales start, large-scale compound fertilizer business rate increased to about 60%, an increase in demand for ammonium phosphate.

Three is the cost of rising. The production cost of monoammonium phosphate is mainly from three aspects: phosphate rock, sulfur, liquid ammonia. The current price of phosphate rock is relatively stable, but the price of sulfur and liquid ammonia are rising, Puguang sulfur in Chongqing Wanzhou port price has exceeded thousands of dollars, reaching 1020 yuan; Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan and other places ex-factory price of ammonia in 2600 yuan the above.

Four is good for export. According to the national customs statistics, in July China’s exports of ammonium phosphate 286,600 tons, up 79%; 1 to July total exports of 1.356 million tons of ammonium phosphate, up 66.92% year on year. International prices of ammonium monoammonium phosphate, Morocco FOB 335-340 US dollars; Brazil 63% grain ammonium diammonium phosphate price 345 to 350 US dollars, up 5 to 10 US dollars. It is expected that this year’s export of ammonium phosphate will hit a record high.

At present, Hubei, Sichuan and other places manufacturers have raised the price of ammonium phosphate program, the range of 20 to 30 yuan.