First, the price trend

According to the business community statistics show that this week the domestic dry fluoride aluminum market prices temporarily stable, the market average price of 8050 yuan / ton, up 17.25% year on year.

Second, the market analysis

Products: aluminum fluoride market prices remain stable this week, the mainstream offer in the 8800-9000 yuan / ton. The overall market started less than five percent, lack of factory inventory, most manufacturers still have plans to increase the latter part.

Industrial chain: upstream raw materials sulfuric acid: sulfuric acid market this week, steady decline in domestic. Shandong, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions of the market few manufacturers can still ship, inventory pressure, acid prices down, the range of 10-20 yuan / ton, did not affect the local market trends; upstream fluorite: fluorite market prices continue to rise this week, In environmental protection, maintenance and other reasons, the phenomenon of business downtime is still relatively common, so supply is still tight, offer strong, coupled with strong demand downstream, prices continue to rise. At present, the price of fluorite powder in the south area is stable and the price of individual manufacturers is slightly changed. The market price of downstream electrolytic aluminum is better, but there is no improvement in demand for aluminum fluoride.

Industry: the downstream electrolytic aluminum market to improve the good and seasonal procurement and other positive factors, low levels of aluminum fluoride business, supply and demand imbalance situation is no longer, production and marketing gradually stabilized, aluminum alloy shipments and trading atmosphere is more active, but Downstream prices have some resistance to their own, low-profit production enterprises to run space.

Third, the market outlook forecast

According to analysts believe that the upstream raw material prices higher support for aluminum fluoride is limited, the downstream aluminum market is better, is expected next week to stabilize the price of aluminum fluoride.

MOSCOW On Aug. 18, the Russian central bank said on Friday that Russia’s gold reserves were 55.6 million ounces, valued at $ 70.04 billion, as of August 1.

Joint oil database (JODI) Thursday (August 17) data show that in June Saudi crude oil exports fell slightly to 688.9 million barrels / day, compared with May to reduce 3.5 million barrels / day.

JODI website information, as OPEC largest crude oil producer, Saudi crude oil production in June to 1007 million barrels / day, compared with May growth of 19 million barrels / day.

June Saudi Arabia, the number of domestic combustion of crude oil increased by 7.6 million barrels / day in May to 68 million barrels / day, due to peak summer electricity.

Saudi June refined oil demand from May to 253.5 million barrels / day increased to 263.4 million barrels / day.

Other data show that Saudi Arabia continues to consume inventory of crude oil, June inventory levels fell 225.3 million barrels to 2.5655 million barrels. The country’s crude oil inventories reached a record 32,443 million barrels in October 2015.

Saudi Arabia, as a faithful defender of production cuts, has been pushing for cuts since the implementation of the cut. The country’s crude oil production in June only 100.58 million barrels / day limit production target of about 1.2 million barrels / day, indicating that it will continue to promote production cuts.

On the other hand, the Saudi refinery in June processing volume of 257.7 million barrels / day, higher than the May 25.17 million barrels / day, while the oil refining products export volume of 136.2 million barrels / day, also higher than in May of 127.9 million barrels /day.

The recent soda ash market overall turnover light, light, heavy alkali trend differentiation. Light base downstream demand is light, heavy alkali downstream float glass market within a narrow range, the price of heavy alkali also experienced a brief high after the now has been temporarily stable. Heavy base of the overall inventory is too small, part of the soda ash enterprises have been adjusted light, heavy alkali production ratio, the relative balance between supply and demand, the whole soda ash market in July after a relatively stable operation phase. At present, the mainstream of the base of the base price of 1450-1800 yuan / ton, the mainstream of heavy alkali to offer in the 1700-1900 yuan / ton. But with the recent fourth batch of central environmental protection inspectors will be fully launched, high-pressure environmental policy of soda ash market where the road is up, is down? Late soda ash market offer supply and demand game under the dilemma. The reason for the following:

First of all, is the impact of environmental inspection on the soda ash business itself. New Minister of Environmental Protection Li Ganjie put forward the “five-step” environmental supervision and management of new ideas, strict governance “scattered pollution” enterprises, and can not upgrade the scale of the discharge of the enterprise, before the end of September 2017 will be closed. Affected by this, parking maintenance business gradually increased, enterprise device operating rate decreased, supply will also be tense situation.

Some enterprises even appeared in the phenomenon of not quoted quote. The industry pulled up a strong state of mind, upward signs seem to be ready, but the environmental inspection not only affected the soda ash market, the impact of the downstream business is also a small can not be discounted.

Followed by the impact of environmental protection under the downstream needs. The remediation of the “scattered chaos” business focus, including non-ferrous metal smelting processing, rubber production, leather, chemicals, carbon production, ceramic firing, and involving coatings, inks, adhesives, organic solvents such as printing, furniture And other small manufacturing and processing enterprises. Then the downstream light industry and printing and dyeing small businesses will be basically all shut down, soda ash market downstream demand will also be reduced. Which on the late soda ash market also produced negative factors. While the heavy alkali downstream of the glass industry, nor in the environmental storm survived the storm In recent years, the glass industry is also facing environmental protection at any time check the situation. Backward production enterprises have been shut down last year, if this year did not meet the standards of environmental protection, some companies are also facing delayed production. Despite the results of environmental protection inspectors, the glass industry is still problematic. But have to admit, under the weight of environmental protection, the glass industry has been reduced production capacity, product prices once straight up. Since last year, the glass industry environmental monitoring efforts have become more stringent, if the manufacturers fail to meet the standard, or stop production, or increase the desulfurization and denitrification equipment to improve.

Coupled with the current trend of the downstream market is running weak, alumina, for example, the recent continued weakness in alumina prices.

Shanxi 2510 fell 130, Shandong 2510 fell 130, Henan 2520 fell 130, Guangxi Baise 2430 fell 120, Lianyungang 2750 yuan / ton. Alumina prices fell last month to maintain the 0-130 yuan / ton. According to statistics, as of July 2017, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached 38.36 million tons, illegal illegal electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 8.74%. In April this year, the Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Land and Resources and the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the four ministries jointly launched a cleanup rectification of electrolytic aluminum industry illegal activities special action to open the electrolytic aluminum to the prelude to production capacity. The special action is divided into four stages: enterprise self-examination (completed before May 15), local verification (completed before June 30), special spot checks (completed before September 15) and supervision and rectification (completed before October 15). According to the production of 1 ton of electrolytic aluminum consumption 1.93 alumina calculation, the first half of the alumina supply of about 80 million tons, the average monthly supply of excess 140,000 tons.Melamine

On the whole, under the high pressure of the soda ash market offer supply and demand game under the dilemma, the late soda ash market in the supply and demand game will be a dilemma. Late standardization of production will be soda ash and downstream enterprises to survive the protection, so enterprises should make up the environmental assessment procedures as soon as possible, equipment updates and so on.

Since last week, China’s epichlorohydrin market into the uplink channel, the price again and again hit a new year to the East China market, for example, the end of July market negotiations in the 8000-8100 yuan / ton, closing today, the market price has risen to 9,000 yuan / Ton near, or up to 11.80%. However, the downstream industry in the traditional off-season, the demand has not significantly improved, coupled with the impact of environmental protection and cost, the market is also relatively light atmosphere of the negotiations, high-priced transactions are limited.

Epichlorohydrin plant operating load is not high, the market spot has significantly reduced. The main factory Dafeng device and Yihai Kerry devices are in the parking, the other plant installation load more than five or even lower, the manufacturers spot inventory is small, the market supply slightly tight, but the downstream epoxy resin by environmental protection and demand Constraints on the consumption of raw materials in general, the market did not improve the new trading atmosphere.

Short-term look at the downstream demand in the off-season, only part of the liquid resin downstream orders better, epichlorohydrin plant maintenance to improve the fundamentals of the situation, the production of new single offer also rise, the current Shandong Haili Chemical single offer 9,000 yuan / ton sent to East China, higher than the July low of nearly 1,500 yuan / ton, the venue is simply a little up with a slow, high prices still need time to implement. At present, the domestic environmental protection and safety supervision efforts, Shandong Haili chemical start limited, Jiangsu Haixing chemical short-term maintenance will resume full load start, and glycerol factory with the spot price increases the cost pressure gradually reduced, follow-up To enhance the space, is expected to short after the tight, the market will gradually increase the stock supply, and the main downstream of the epoxy resin factory no clear intention to raise start, the fundamentals of good and lasting to be wait and see. Short-term domestic sales of epichlorohydrin is expected to remain high consolidation, but high-priced stalemate after digestion risk.

The first half of this year, the domestic ammonium chloride market continued a few years ago in the weak supply and demand imbalance in the case of contradictions, manufacturers can only reduce the operating rate to control the decline in market prices. Although the operating rate to a certain extent, the control of the proliferation of market sources, but the price of ammonium chloride was once fell near the cost line, and even some factories have a loss of state, ammonium chloride stocks reached more than one million tons.

However, from mid to late June, beginning in July, the ammonium chloride market began to change, although the market price did not show a sharp rise in the trend, but the early lower than the cost price has basically disappeared. Kyrgyzstan enterprises began to recover the device started in about 7 percent, although some manufacturers started unstable, but the supply is relatively adequate. But from the market inventory point of view, ammonium chloride but not higher than the previous year, the phenomenon of more than one million tons of inventory.

From the latest customs data to understand that the larger market inventory where, in June 2017, China’s export fertilizer grade ammonium chloride 194,000 tons, a record monthly export history of the most record. According to the preliminary statistics of the customs, in July 2017 China’s ammonium chloride exports are expected to reach 250,000 tons, another record high. Since 2011, domestic ammonium chloride as a dual fertilizer export stranded in the port, the international demand for ammonium chloride is also significantly affected. In recent years, domestic fertilizer grade ammonium chloride in Southeast Asia to promote and demonstrate a good effect, so from the beginning of 2015, the international community has increased the demand for ammonium chloride.

A large number of exports can not effectively promote the domestic ammonium chloride prices up, edge is why? Mainly in terms of supply and demand, although the export volume increased significantly, but in the case of soda ash market is relatively good, the base unit operating rate is relatively high, basically maintained at 7-8 or so. The autumn market for small nitrogen and other raw materials demand is relatively limited, so manufacturers even if the intention to raise the market price, but the downstream acceptance is still general.

On the whole, the ammonium chloride market will temporarily maintain a stable operation of the situation, although the alkali companies have adjusted intention, but the difficulties can be achieved, so the short term, the ammonium chloride market needs to pay close attention to the downstream plant started The situation, the constraints of domestic demand is still in control of the market price of ammonium chloride changes.

Non-ferrous metal collective cooling, rising power can continue into focus. Since the midday metal rally kinetic energy gradually dissipated, the day the overall volatility is limited, closing only copper fell slightly, the rest of the metals are closed up.

Development and Reform Commission shut down the country’s largest enterprise electrolytic aluminum illegal production capacity, on behalf of China to resolve electrolytic aluminum and other industries excess capacity attitude is very firm, the market was encouraged. The current round of metal collective rise, on the one hand is the supply side of the reform from the limited production to environmental orderly advance, the number of enterprises cut off the market exceeded the market expectations; the other hand, in the supply from the surplus to clear the background, steel, , Electrolytic aluminum and other industry profits rose sharply, the market outlook will continue to be optimistic.

However, from the various varieties of view, the strongest fundamentals of zinc, zinc production this year, China is not as expected, so that the supply shortage situation is more serious. While the high inventory of aluminum, suggesting that the state is still in excess, but the hype space. Copper is the most stable metal at this stage, the fundamentals tend to balance the state is the main reason for its price fluctuations, but should pay attention to the recent hype of copper.

According to the United States, fuel and petrochemical manufacturers statistics show that the United States in June propylene exports increased by 19%, from 5.1348 million tons in May increased to 609.77 million tons. According to the US International Trade Commission recently released the latest statistics, the United States in June propylene exports to record highs.

Statistics show that the United States in June propylene exports in June last year, 3.9488 million tons of exports soared by 54%.

Statistics also show that the United States in June propylene exports of the three largest destinations are Mexico, Canada and Belgium and Luxembourg, the three were imported 3.2834 million tons, 2.0826 million tons and 7038 tons.

Statistics show that Canada in June is the largest supplier of propylene in the United States, exports reached 13.48 million tons.

What is the importance of changes in market demand for oil prices? It is worth noting that a new change in the global oil market is happening quietly – electric cars are gradually replacing traditional cars. What impact does this have on oil prices?

At the end of the 19th century American oil production, gasoline was considered a useless by-product of oil refining, when gasoline prices were very cheap, or even burned or dumped in rivers. When the first batch of large-scale production of traditional cars appeared, the demand for gasoline was greatly improved, gasoline prices also led to rising crude oil prices.

From the above historical facts, we can find that the change in market demand is important for oil prices. It is worth noting that, just over a century later, a new change in the global oil market is taking place – electric cars are gradually replacing traditional cars.

First, the emergence of electric locomotives become a major challenge in the oil industry

Britain and France recently announced a plan. The plan is to ban the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040. The plan has been the key issue for the oil industry: the emergence of a large number of electric vehicles is leading to a decline in oil demand?

1, oil producers began to pay attention to the impact of electric vehicles on oil prices

Some of the world’s oil company executives in the status quo, but also did not realize the importance of the problem. These executives take for granted that the current oil company’s overall performance in the second quarter is generally strong, even in the long run, the global oil demand slowed, but the recent outlook is still optimistic.

However, Ben van Beurden, chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, did not try to cover up the challenges facing the oil industry. “Our company must reduce the development of oil fields, and only the lowest cost and most likely to remain competitive will be mined.”

Ben van Beurden said, “We must objectively face the resilience of the oil market, the current strong demand in the oil market, but there will be demand when the downturn, when the specific demand will decline, we do not know, but sooner or later will happen We are sure. ”

Ben van Beurden said, “oil peak demand may be in the late twenties and thirties, that is, electric cars began to appear in a large number of optimistic circumstances, after the oil demand will gradually reduce.However, now look at the electric car industry also Need more innovation in battery technology, and more policy support, it is possible to compete with the oil car.

2, electric vehicle policy advantage can not be ignored

Britain and France plan to phase out gasoline and diesel vehicles over the next two decades, increasing the policy advantage of electric vehicles. Equally important, car manufacturers have also made their promises for this.

Volvo said last month that all new models will be converted from 2019 to electric or hybrid. At the same time, Tesla (365.22, 10.05, 2.83%) increased the effort of the new electric car launched last month.

Figure 2: growth expectations of electric vehicle sales (dark blue for the growth of China’s electric car is expected, light blue for the global growth of electric vehicles is expected) Figure 2: electric vehicle sales growth expectations (dark blue for China’s electric vehicle growth is expected, light blue for the global electric Car growth is expected)

3, China and India are expected to vigorously develop battery technology

China and India are ambitious in battery technology, and these two countries are likely to promote the development of electric vehicles.

At present, China is already the world’s largest electric car market, Chinese companies have begun to dominate the battery manufacturing industry.

Research firm Trusted Sources analyst Kingsmill Bond predicts that “with the cost of electric vehicles and traditional vehicles parity, there will be a turning point in early 2020. The rise of electric vehicles is another indicator of systemic changes in the energy market, but also the oil investors Early warning. ”

Second, the transformation of market demand still takes a long time

Many oil industry analysts believe that the transformation of market demand takes a long time. ExxonMobil (79.96, -0.20, -0.25%) the company expects the current growth of electric vehicles on the global oil demand is relatively small. The company also believes that despite the slowdown in oil demand growth, but oil demand will continue to grow until the twenty seventies of the twenty-first century.

1, the traditional vehicle replacement in developing countries is relatively slow

It is worth mentioning that the UK and France may be on the new electric vehicle policy advantage and will not determine the fate of the oil industry.

According to the International Energy Agency, non-OECD countries will grow by 19 per cent, although oil demand is expected to decline by nearly 12 per cent in the more affluent OECD countries between 2015 and 2040. By the end of 2040, 60% of the demand will come from outside the OECD.

“The growth of internal combustion engines in developing countries is still strong because they do not have electrical infrastructure and electric cars do not simply replace traditional cars,” explains Ben van Beurden.

Bob Dudley, CEO of BP, said, “Although the rise of electric vehicles is inevitable, but the traditional car will last for several decades.We predicted that by 2035, electric vehicles will reach 1 million.Even if the electric car growth rate turned Fan, the road is still a lot of traditional vehicles.

2, gasoline demand decline may also be offset by other industry demand growth

Gasoline’s declining demand for oil is also likely to be offset by growth in air and heavy freight, and freight is harder to turn to alternative fuels. Petrochemical is also another source of long-term demand.

According to the International Energy Agency statistics, 2015 passenger cars accounted for 26% of global oil demand, more than aviation, shipping and petrochemicals. But then, with the conversion of passenger cars to electric cars, oil demand will turn to the head of shipping and petrochemicals.

Saudi oil chief executive Amin Nasser said last month that even if the traditional fuel began to lose market share, history tells us that the demand for oil will continue to rise.

Amin Nasser believes that even in the 20th century, coal growth, it is difficult to reduce the global market demand for oil.

In summary, the current global oil industry is still in the early stages of solving the problem of electric vehicles affecting the oil market. Some companies have begun to take precautions, some companies do not agree. Among them, Shell plans to spend billions of dollars a year to develop alternative energy, but this is still a small part of the overall capital expenditure.

“We are a $ 280 billion company, and we invest $ 25 billion to $ 30 billion a year, so ten years only, we will build a new shell, which gives us a lot of flexibility to adapt,” Shell executives said. Changes in global market demand. ”

August 9 news, the same day the news that the Libyan Sharala oil field in the short-term after the resumption of production to return to about 27 million barrels of normal level. The market worried about the crude oil market will continue to maintain oversupply situation, oil prices under pressure.

As of the day closing, the New York Mercantile Exchange in September delivery of light crude oil futures fell $ 0.22 to close at $ 49.17 a barrel, down 0.45%. October delivery of London Brent crude oil futures fell $ 0.23 to close at 52.14 US dollars a barrel, down 0.44%.