After the holiday, the weekly settlement price of caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon yarn, increased, and the market for high-speed spinning of nylon PA6 chips saw a narrow rise, with increased cost support; The operating rate of most nylon filament manufacturers’ equipment is still at a low level, and the on-site supply continues to decrease. The inventory levels of various manufacturers have slightly increased, and the performance of the supply side is average; The downstream factories plan to resume work slightly later, and some manufacturers mainly execute early orders, with low enthusiasm for replenishment and no significant improvement in demand. Overall, the upstream raw material market continues to rise, with decent cost support. Nylon filament and downstream manufacturers are mostly on vacation, with low trading activity in the market, resulting in a slight increase in nylon filament market prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament fell weakly after the holiday. As of February 9, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province is 16660 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.60% compared to the pre holiday price; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14275 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the pre holiday price. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17300 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton or 0.44% compared to the pre holiday price.

The center of gravity of raw materials is increasing

In terms of cost, on February 10th, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly settlement price was implemented at 11450 yuan/ton (interest free acceptance for liquid superior products in June), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the previous week’s settlement price., The market price trend of high-speed spun nylon PA6 chips is upward, and the price center of raw materials in the market has increased during the week, providing certain favorable support for the nylon filament market.

Supply and demand: The operating rate of most nylon filament manufacturers’ equipment is still at a low level, and currently the nylon filament market is operating at around 5.90%. The on-site supply continues to decrease, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers have slightly increased. The performance of the supply side is average; The downstream factories plan to resume work slightly later, and some manufacturers mainly execute early orders, with low enthusiasm for replenishment and no significant improvement in demand. Overall, the upstream raw material market continues to rise, and the cost side support is still acceptable. Nylon filament and downstream manufacturers are mostly on vacation, and the trading activity in the market is not high.

Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the raw material pure benzene has been consolidated at a high level, and the market supply of caprolactam is normal. Downstream demand follow-up is the main trend, and some operators have a positive attitude. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will steadily rise in the short term.

Supply and demand side: With the end of the holiday, nylon filament manufacturers may gradually resume work, and there is a possibility of a gradual increase in on-site supply. It is expected that the supply of nylon filament in the market will increase narrowly in the short term; The downstream market plans to resume work relatively late, which limits the increase in demand for nylon filament market and makes it difficult for the demand side to show significant improvement. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side support for short fiber nylon filament market will be insufficient.

Overall, the short-term nylon filament raw material caprolactam spot market and PA6 slicing market may continue to rise, with cost support remaining. Downstream manufacturers may gradually resume work and purchase according to demand. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market price will be cautiously upward, with an expected increase of 100-300 yuan/ton.

This week (February 2-8, 2025), the price center of the adhesive short fiber market has slightly increased. As of February 8th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13660 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 0.74% compared to the pre holiday price. The upstream raw material market prices remain firm, with cost support remaining. The inventory level in the market is not high, and coupled with the increasing operating load of downstream yarn factories, businesses have sufficient confidence in the future. Some adhesive short fiber manufacturers have raised their prices, resulting in an increase in high priced sources in the market and a slight increase in adhesive short fiber market prices.

In terms of cost, there has been little change in the market price of the main raw material for viscose staple fiber dissolution slurry this week, while the market price of auxiliary liquid alkali has risen at a high level. The market price of sulfuric acid has fallen narrowly, and the center of gravity of the raw material market price has shifted upward. The average production cost of viscose staple fiber has slightly increased.

Supply and demand: From the supply side perspective, there is little fluctuation in the supply of adhesive short fibers in the market after the new year, and the inventory levels of various manufacturers are not high. There is currently no sales pressure, and the supply side provides some upward momentum for the market. The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market is not high, and prices are mainly stagnant. Downstream yarn manufacturers plan to resume work slightly later. Although adhesive short fiber manufacturers have raised their quotes and increased on-site inquiries, actual transactions are limited and demand side performance is poor.

Market forecast:

The main material dissolution slurry market and auxiliary material liquid alkali market may remain strong in price, while the sulfuric acid market may still decline. It is expected that the cost of adhesive short fibers will remain stable next week. In the short term, the adhesive short fiber market is expected to operate stably, with little fluctuation in industry supply and low inventory levels on site, and there is currently no significant inventory pressure. Some downstream yarn factories mainly fulfill early orders and replenish urgently needed goods, while others plan to resume work later, making it difficult for the demand for adhesive short fibers to increase significantly in the market, and the demand side performance is average. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small fluctuations next week, with prices expected to be around 13600-13800 yuan/ton for acceptance.

1、 Market price overview

According to the latest market trends, the market price of melamine showed a slight downward trend after the holiday. There are differences in the prices of melamine from different brands and origins, but overall they reflect the characteristic of stable and decreasing market prices. For example, some traders provide quotes for melamine in Shandong region, some as high as 7100 yuan/ton, while others are as low as 5500 yuan/ton, but most quotes are concentrated between 6300 yuan and 7000 yuan/ton. As of February 7th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.48% compared to the beginning of this month (6230.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Market supply and demand relationship

1. Supply side: The supply of melamine in the market is relatively stable, but the deployment of new production capacity and inventory adjustment strategies have had a certain impact on market prices. The supply and demand pressure in the upstream raw material urea market is relatively high, with daily production maintained at a high level, and new facilities being put into operation one after another, which to some extent suppresses the price of urea and thus affects the production cost of melamine.

2. Demand side: The market demand for melamine is relatively weak. Although downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have a certain demand for melamine, overall growth is weak. In addition, the insufficient purchasing power of fertilizer distributors and low market activity have also led to a negative attitude from the demand side.

3、 Market Trend Analysis

1. Short term trend: In the short term, the market price of melamine may continue to maintain a stable and slightly declining trend. The price fluctuations in the raw material urea market, the introduction of new production capacity, and changes in downstream demand will all have an impact on market prices.

2. Long term trend: In the long run, the trend of the melamine market will be influenced by various factors. With the development of the economy and the improvement of residents’ living standards, the demand for melamine in downstream industries may change. Meanwhile, fluctuations in the raw material market, policy guidance, and overall industry capacity will have a profound impact on market prices.

In summary, the trend of stable and slightly decreasing prices in the melamine market after the holiday is the result of multiple factors working together. Enterprises should closely monitor market trends, strengthen inventory management, optimize product structure, and look forward to policy guidance to promote the healthy development of the market.

Market Overview: After the holiday, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market prices continued to rise. During the Spring Festival, the entire Lihua Yi plant was shut down for maintenance, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate once again declined. Spot resources remained tight, and major manufacturers continued to push up prices. Intermediaries were also reluctant to sell at high prices, and some traders had no offers due to shortages. As of February 7th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 11800-12000 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 11700-11900 yuan/ton.

Supply shortage: The 260000 ton/year acrylonitrile unit of Lihua Yilijin Refining and Chemical will be shut down for maintenance for one month starting from February 1st, and is scheduled to resume by the end of February or early March; In addition, there is still a maintenance plan to maintain low load operation in February, and coupled with the lack of specific start-up time for the new Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Plant, the tight supply is still driving the market to explore further. There is no pressure on industry inventory, and currently contract supply is the main source. Spot resources continue to be scarce, and the shortage situation is difficult to improve in the short term.

Stable demand: Although the three main downstream industries of acrylonitrile are currently in a loss making state, and most of the inventory has been completed before the Spring Festival, production reduction and shutdown are relatively limited, so the demand side is still relatively stable.

Cost wise: International oil prices continue to decline, which is bearish for the market sentiment. And currently, downstream centralized replenishment has ended, and enterprise shipments are tending to be flat, which has a certain degree of suppression on price trends. As of February 6th, the market price of propylene in Shandong is 6980 yuan/ton, with average cost support.

Market forecast: Overall, the domestic acrylonitrile market remains strong at a high level, with no pressure on industry inventory. In the short term, spot resources are still tight, and major manufacturers continue to raise prices. However, post holiday buying has not fully recovered, and downstream users are also resistant to high raw material prices, which also poses resistance to market growth.

After the holiday, the acrylic acid market showed a quiet and stable operating trend. As of February 6th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society is 7725.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month.

1、 Market quotation and transaction situation

Returning after the holiday, the market price of acrylic acid is mostly stable with a moderate upward trend. Although the follow-up of new orders has slowed down compared to the previous period, the manufacturer’s mentality is firm, and market demand is holding a moderate purchase at low prices.

In the case of good transactions in the low-end supply of goods in the market, manufacturers tend to execute pre-sale orders, and some companies even stop quoting, creating a clear upward trend in the market.

2、 Supply side

After the holiday, some acrylic acid factories were in a state of shutdown and maintenance, resulting in a shortage of spot supply. This supply side contraction has to some extent offset the pressure of insufficient demand and pushed the price of acrylic acid to remain stable and strong.

With the resumption of some facilities, the expected utilization rate of acrylic acid production capacity is expected to slightly increase, and market supply is expected to be supplemented. However, due to the factory’s low expectations for market volume and the tight supply of goods in some regions such as southern China, the sales pressure on holders may not be significant.

3、 Demand side

The downstream industry mainly purchases acrylic raw materials for immediate needs and has a general intention to accept high priced goods. This has led to limited actual demand growth and a relatively cautious market trading atmosphere.

With the gradual resumption of work in downstream industries and further recovery of demand, it is expected to have a certain alleviating effect on the supply-demand imbalance in the acrylic acid market. However, until demand fully recovers, the market will still maintain a certain wait-and-see attitude.

4、 Cost and Profit

Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated within a narrow range, which has limited impact on the cost fluctuations of acrylic acid. As of February 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6943.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.76% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

With the continuous rise in acrylic acid prices, the industry’s profitability level continues to rebound. However, the improvement of profitability still needs to pay attention to changes in factors such as raw material prices, supply and demand relationships, and market competition.

5、 Future prospects

Overall, the post holiday sentiment in the acrylic acid market is stable but slightly strong, with rising prices but cautious trading atmosphere. With the gradual resumption of work on the supply side and further recovery of downstream demand, the market supply-demand contradiction is expected to be alleviated.

However, until demand fully recovers, the market will still maintain a certain wait-and-see attitude. Therefore, it is recommended that acrylic acid industry enterprises closely monitor market dynamics and supply and demand changes, and reasonably arrange production and sales plans to cope with market fluctuations.

In summary, after the holiday, the atmosphere in the acrylic acid market is quiet but shows a stable to strong trend. Against the backdrop of supply side contraction, gradual recovery of demand side, and limited fluctuations in cost side, the acrylic acid market will maintain a certain upward momentum, but the trading atmosphere is relatively cautious.

In January 2025, the market price of acrylonitrile will significantly increase. The price surged sharply in the first week of the month, and there are currently few market quotes, only sporadic merchants offering high prices. The manufacturer has tightened spot sales. The rapid increase in prices this time is a rare occurrence in recent years, which has led some market participants to believe that the market situation has returned to the past.

There are several reasons for the price increase this time. Supply is tight, and a acrylonitrile production line has been shut down for maintenance due to a malfunction, resulting in an overall operating rate of 50%. The market supply has decreased, and prices in Shandong have increased one after another. In terms of the East China market, the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been delayed, and Sinopec East China has had to purchase spot acrylonitrile to fill the gap, thereby reducing market inventory.

Northbound goods are moving southward, and acrylonitrile is supplemented by the northern market in the eastern and southern markets, resulting in a corresponding increase in prices in the relatively low Shandong market. As a result, both Haijiang and Korur in Shandong have reduced their spot supply, leading to price increases. At the same time, some manufacturers have adjusted their pre-sale pricing systems, improved price flexibility, and paved the way for gradual price increases.

In addition, transportation delays in overseas markets and suppliers in neighboring regions have reduced the supply of imported goods, making it difficult to meet downstream demand in the domestic market. In addition, the delayed restart of ZRCC company has led to an increase in market expectations.

In terms of demand, some December equipment maintenance manufacturers restarted in January, and the sharp rise in raw material prices has put acrylic fiber manufacturers in a difficult situation, facing the contradiction between losses and replenishing inventory. In addition, with the shutdown of downstream yarn mills, the demand for acrylic fiber is approaching zero. In 2025, the government announced the continuation of the subsidy program for car and home appliances trade in, which will stimulate the production willingness of ABS market manufacturers and increase their enthusiasm for stocking up.

Overall, the price increase this time is driven by various supply and demand factors, but it is still uncertain whether its upward trend can continue. The increase in capacity utilization driven by profit recovery may limit further price increases.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in January was mainly consolidated, with some brand products experiencing narrow price reductions. As of January 31st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7558.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.16% compared to the price level at the beginning of January.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

Due to the strengthening of the US dollar at the end of December last year and the contraction of consumption, oil prices weakened in early January. Entering 2025, concerns about crude oil supply have risen due to the extension of the OPEC+production reduction agreement until the end of the first quarter and the obstruction of some ship exports. In addition, the recent low temperature weather in Europe and America has boosted demand, and under various stimuli, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen. Overall, the upstream support of PP is strengthening. At the beginning of the month, the price of propylene increased due to the increase in midstream inventory and high external prices. However, after the price rose to a high level, trading cooled down, resulting in a significant decline in propylene in late January. The overall consolidation of propane has been weak throughout the month. Although it received positive news from crude oil in the second half of the month, transmission still needs time, and the market is still in a weak consolidation trend. Overall, the PP raw material market fluctuated before the Spring Festival in January, and the cost value at the end of the month remained positive guidance.

Supply side:

Domestic PP enterprises have resumed work and production, resulting in an increase in pre holiday load levels. During the month, the load of enterprises such as Daxie Petrochemical, Zhonghan Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical has gradually returned. Overall, the industry’s overall load has increased by about 5% to 83%. The domestic weekly average production is over 730000 tons, and the PP shipment volume is flat. At the same time, newly put into operation devices are being produced one after another, and the market supply is abundant. Overall, the supply side provides moderate support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

Before the holiday, the demand for PP tends to be weak and rigid. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice decreased, and the consumption level of plastic weaving also declined. The stocking intensity of terminal enterprises is average, and their willingness to continue purchasing before the holiday is low. Their operations tend to be short-term and buy as you go. As companies gradually enter the holiday season, the workload decreases. In addition, with the trend of year-end fund withdrawal in the market, overall, the demand side has shown weak performance.

Future forecast

The domestic PP market price consolidation was weak before the Spring Festival in January. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The industry supply has increased. According to consumer feedback, during the Spring Festival period, businesses gradually withdrew from the market and there was a lack of purchasing power in the market. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain relatively stable in early February.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 24th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.52% from the reference average price of 1798 yuan/ton on January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the domestic urea market price first fell and then rose. In the first half of this month, domestic urea prices fell weakly. The supply of urea in the market is relatively loose, and the market inventory has increased. Downstream demand is weak, and downstream consumers tend to be cautious and cautious. The market trading is light, with many low-priced transactions. In mid to late this month, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated and rose. The demand for pre holiday market replenishment has increased, market transaction volume has increased, and enterprise quotations have been raised.

market conditions

As of January 24th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1640-1685 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1750 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1670 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1770 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

On the supply side, the urea market has had loose supply this month. Partial regions have resumed production, resulting in an increase in daily urea production in China. On the demand side, in the first half of this month, due to the continuous decline in prices and cautious downstream procurement, there was not much market trading and a light trading atmosphere. In the second half of this month, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased and demand increased.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has been rising recently. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking demand remains high, coupled with the recent rise in urea futures prices. Under favorable factors, it is expected that the domestic urea market prices will remain stable with a moderate upward trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 24th, the price of lead 1 # was 16750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.21% from the lead price of 16785 yuan/ton on January 20th.

This week’s market analysis

As the Spring Festival holiday approaches this week, trading in the spot lead market has turned weak. Recently, there has been a significant reduction in transportation vehicles, leading to an increase in freight rates and constraining spot trading. At the same time, downstream enterprises are about to take a holiday, and with the rise in lead prices, some companies’ plans to stock up on dips before the holiday have been disrupted.

Native end

Part of the electrolytic lead plants provide accompanying quotes for delivery, with a slight reduction in the markup. The strong trend of lead prices this week has led to companies that originally planned to stock up adopting a wait-and-see attitude or directly canceling their inventory plans.

Regeneration end

The supply and demand in the spot market are both showing a weak trend. Most battery manufacturers have completed pre holiday stocking, resulting in a sluggish transaction of recycled lead. The price of lead in Shanghai remains relatively strong and volatile, and the supply of goods for holders is tight, resulting in a significant decrease in quotes compared to last week.

Demand side

Major lead-acid battery companies have basically entered a holiday period, and the procurement of raw materials and shipment of batteries have also gradually ended. Considering that logistics vehicles will be shut down no later than around January 23rd, downstream enterprises may use this time window to carry out the final nearby stocking work. The demand for lead consumption is showing further weakness.

comprehensive analysis

At the beginning of the week, as the holiday approached, the number of logistics vehicles gradually decreased. As a result, most downstream enterprises have suspended their procurement activities for lead ingots. Next week, coinciding with the arrival of the Chinese Lunar New Year, the logistics system will be completely shut down. In this context, spot trading of lead ingots will be suspended.

Aluminum prices strengthen in January

Aluminum prices strengthened in January. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 23, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20213.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17% from the market average price of 19783.33 yuan/ton on January 1, and a decrease of 0.62% from yesterday.

Reasons for the increase in aluminum prices in January:

Lun Aluminum Drive:

1. The EU may implement a ban on Russian aluminum, and the news that Russian aluminum will once again face Western sanctions has raised expectations of increased demand for LME spot goods.

2. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the information that may affect the natural gas facilities, together with the decline of natural gas inventory in Europe in the severe winter, has significantly promoted the rise of natural gas prices in Europe. The rise in energy prices has pushed up the cost of aluminum ingots in Europe. Supporting the price of London aluminum

The Trump Effect:

On a macro level, Trump’s inauguration within this month has intensified uncertainty in policy interpretation. The domestic tax cuts and external tax increases advocated by Trump have pushed up the prices of imported goods and increased market concerns about re inflation.

In the trend of domestic aluminum ingot destocking:

Aluminum ingot inventory maintains a trend of depletion, and the rate of depletion far exceeds expectations. According to data, as of January 23, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in mainstream areas of China was 459000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons from 469000 tons on January 2.