The recent decline in the domestic PTA market has improved slightly, showing a slight rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 18th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4855 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26% compared to March 12th.

Crude oil tends to fluctuate strongly. On March 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.58 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.07 per barrel. In the PX market, some South Korean PX facilities have delayed restart or extended maintenance time, which is favorable for the PTA market. Starting from mid March, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons, CNOOC Huizhou’s 1.5 million tons, Jiujiang Petrochemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical’s 660000 tons, and Tianjin Petrochemical have all planned maintenance, and the domestic PX operating rate has gradually decreased. The planned maintenance of PX units in April and May is still relatively concentrated, and the scale of maintenance is slightly lower than the same period last year. It is expected that the destocking of PX in the second quarter will exceed 500000 tons, and the spot liquidity of PX may be tight in the future.

In March, PTA plant maintenance increased due to low processing costs and lower than expected terminal demand. In March, with the maintenance of more facilities such as Yizheng Chemical Fiber and Hengli Dalian, the scale of PTA maintenance has expanded again, and the current operating rate is around 75%. The expected PTA destocking in March is around 300000 tons, and the overall destocking in the second quarter is expected to be around 500000 tons.

The downstream polyester performance is weak, and the pressure is mainly affected by weaving. The performance of “Golden Three Silver Four” is not as expected, and the current operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines is only 67%. This year’s spring and summer orders are insufficient compared to the same period in previous years. At the same time, the release of US tariffs has further dragged down the textile market with orders placed in the export market, resulting in average demand support. Finished fabric inventory remains high, post holiday orders are insufficient, the market is cautious, and purchasing enthusiasm is not high.

Business analysts believe that with the strengthening of cost support, PTA will show a trend of destocking in March. At present, downstream consumers mainly consume pre season inventory. With the traditional peak season of the textile industry gradually approaching, if the downstream order situation improves, it is expected to continue to boost the PTA market.

Price index: The market price index of melamine in this cycle remained at 67.5 points, with fluctuations of no more than 0.5% compared to the previous week, indicating a high degree of stability in market prices. The market price range is 6080-6250 yuan/ton, and there has been no significant change in the price range compared to the previous week, further proving the stable wait-and-see trend of the market.

Market supply and demand data: According to statistics, the total supply of melamine in this cycle is about 31100 tons, with a change of less than 2% compared to the previous week, indicating the stability of the supply side. The capacity utilization rate remains stable, with a demand of approximately 61.73% for this cycle, fluctuating within 4% compared to the previous week, indicating that the demand side is also in a wait-and-see state.

Trading data: The trading frequency of this cycle has not changed much compared to the previous week, and trading activities are mainly concentrated in several major trading periods, indicating a wait-and-see attitude among market participants.

Inventory data: Manufacturer inventory: This week, the inventory level of melamine manufacturers remained at around XX%, with relatively small fluctuations compared to the previous week, indicating that manufacturers are maintaining stable supply while also cautiously controlling inventory levels. Downstream inventory: The inventory level of downstream industries remains stable, and the inventory level on Wednesday this week has not changed much compared to the previous week, further confirming the stable wait-and-see trend of the market.

In summary, the melamine market has shown a stable wait-and-see trend this week, with high stability in terms of supply and demand data, price index, transaction data, and inventory data. The future market trend still needs to be closely monitored for changes in market dynamics and influencing factors.

This week, the epoxy propane market has been operating weakly and steadily. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 14th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7925 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.25% from the beginning of the month.

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Currently, market inventory has decreased. Enterprises tend to have a strong mentality of supporting prices.

Raw material side: The price of raw material propylene liquid chlorine fluctuates. In terms of cost, there is still high pressure, and the market price of epoxy propane is mainly high. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 13th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6935.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.80% compared to the beginning of this month (6813.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream market is mostly wait-and-see, and the trading atmosphere is average. Due to the expected reduction in raw materials caused by the maintenance of epoxy propane units in some regions, the market’s purchasing enthusiasm has increased.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the maintenance plan for epoxy propane supply side inventory has reduced inventory, coupled with the continuous rise of liquid chlorine on the raw material side, the cost pressure on enterprises still exists, and the main focus is on raising prices. However, due to the reduction in epoxy propane inventory, downstream purchasing enthusiasm may follow suit, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market price will show a stable to strong trend in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices.

Market Overview: This week, supply support has significantly weakened, with downstream main sectors experiencing narrow fluctuations in production. Overall demand has not undergone significant adjustments, and fundamental support is insufficient. Acrylonitrile prices continue to fluctuate at a low level. As of March 14th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 8600-8800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week. Short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8600-8800 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Cost aspect: With the decline in acrylonitrile prices, the cost pressure on acrylonitrile factories has significantly increased. Currently, the propylene price in the Shandong market is around 6880 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton or 1.03% from the end of February. Another major raw material, synthetic ammonia, is priced at 2600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 1.96% from the end of February. The prices of two major raw materials have significantly increased, while the price of acrylonitrile has significantly decreased. The profit margin of acrylonitrile factories has significantly narrowed. Currently, the theoretical loss level of manufacturers has exceeded 800 yuan/ton, which is more than 2000 yuan/ton lower than the average profit in February. Acrylonitrile prices have fallen to a relatively low level, and profits have once again suffered losses.

Supply side: There are plans for new units to be put into operation from late March to April, while Shanghai SECCO plans to overhaul a set of units by the end of March. Some acrylonitrile units of Sinopec are scheduled to be shut down for maintenance by the end of March or April. There is no clear news about other factory units, and the supply of acrylonitrile industry is expected to continue to increase.

Demand side: Downstream ABS, Yulong Petrochemical and other facilities are expected to be put into operation, and the demand for acrylonitrile is expected to increase slightly. We will pay attention to the progress of their new facilities and the release of production capacity.

Market forecast: After the price of acrylonitrile drops to a relatively low level, the cost pressure on factories will significantly increase, and the role of cost prices in supporting acrylonitrile prices will gradually strengthen. As profits begin to lose again, the mentality of acrylonitrile factories to raise prices will gradually increase. Considering that there are still planned facilities under construction, the supply of acrylonitrile is expected to continue to grow, and the loose supply situation in the industry is expected to continue. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will maintain a low and narrow fluctuation trend.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on March 13th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 10980 yuan/ton. Compared with March 7th (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11110 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has been weakly declining. At the beginning of the week, the overall market situation remained stable, with occasional price reductions for certain brands in some regions. By the middle of the week, many regions and brands of metallic silicon in China have adjusted downwards. Among them, the market price of metallic silicon 441 # in Tianjin is based on 10700-10900 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is 10600-10800 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port area is 10900~11000 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton.

analysis of influencing factors

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall atmosphere of the silicon metal market is relatively pessimistic. On the demand side, downstream users are cautious in their demands, with low enthusiasm for inquiries and a predominance of new orders driven by urgent needs. On the supply side, currently, silicon companies have both increased and decreased production, but there has been a certain increase in overall supply. Overall, the increase in supply is greater than the increase in demand, putting pressure on the transmission of supply and demand.

In terms of raw materials: This week, the silica market has been operating steadily, with a relatively loose supply side and average demand area polarity. At present, the ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Jiangxi is around 430-460 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Inner Mongolia is around 350-380 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Hubei is around 400-450 yuan/ton.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is light, and the mentality of industry players is average. Downstream demand is gradually recovering. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate within a certain range, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has maintained a fluctuating downward trend since March. As of March 12th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57% from the beginning of the month. The average ex factory price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 6968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.22% from the beginning of the month.

The raw material market, the negative economic outlook of the US tariff policy, and the escalation of trade frictions have led to a larger than expected increase in US crude oil inventories. Investors are concerned that OPEC+will decide to increase production starting in April, causing a weak adjustment in international crude oil prices. As of March 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $66.25 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $69.56 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the destocking of US crude oil and the disturbance of the situation in the Middle East.

In the PTA market, spot processing fees continued to weaken by the end of 2024 and remained at a low level around 300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The profit gap of the enterprise has led to an increase in maintenance enthusiasm. There were many PTA plant maintenance in March, and as of March 11th, the industry’s operating rate was at a one-year low of 77%. According to statistics, the domestic PTA production capacity for maintenance and planned maintenance in March was 10.15 million tons. However, due to weakened costs and insufficient demand, the average PTA market price in East China was 4748 yuan/ton as of March 12th, a decrease of 4.41% from the beginning of the month.

On the supply and demand side, some polyester staple fiber facilities are planned to restart, with an expected increase in supply, and the industry may experience an increase in production. The terminal weaving production has also increased, with the spinning industry’s production rising to 79%. However, there is a lack of enthusiasm for purchasing polyester staple fibers and cautious stocking. At present, the factory indicates that the issuance of new orders is still slow and lacks confidence in the future market. The space for further increase in weaving end elasticity and weaving start-up rate is limited. Currently, the weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 67%, and insufficient orders may lead to a subsequent decline in start-up rate.

Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that weak demand will maintain basic needs, coupled with weak costs driving the price of polyester staple fibers to a bearish trend. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will continue to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly declined recently (3.3-3.11). As of March 11th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16709 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from 17180 yuan/ton on the 3rd. The high prices of raw materials have fallen back; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly increased; After the holiday, downstream production gradually increased, coupled with strong fluctuations in the Shanghai rubber market, which led to a slight upward trend in the natural rubber spot market.

At present, foreign natural rubber supply will gradually enter an increasing production period from a low production period. The Yunnan production area in China will be the first to enter a trial cutting period, while production areas such as Hainan, Vietnam, and northeastern Thailand in China will still stop cutting. Currently, natural rubber raw material prices are consolidating at a high level, and it is expected that they may decline in the future. As of March 11th, the price of Thai glue was 67.50 baht/kg, slightly lower than 70.00 baht/kg at the beginning of the month.

Natural rubber inventory continues to increase slightly, but overall it remains at a high level. As of March 2, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 584400 tons, an increase of 8800 tons or 1.53% compared to the previous period.

Supply and demand side: The slight increase in downstream tire production mainly supports the demand for natural rubber in the market. As of March 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 8.2%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.

Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at a high level, but in the later stage, with the opening of some regions at home and abroad, the price of natural rubber raw materials may continue to fall. The downstream construction is gradually increasing, which provides some essential support for the demand for natural rubber, but the inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to grow slightly; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

As of March 10th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6275.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the beginning of this month (6267.50 yuan/ton). This slight increase indicates that market prices have not fluctuated significantly and the overall trend is stable. From a longer-term perspective, although the price of melamine has fluctuated, there has not been a significant increase or decrease in recent times.

market equilibrium

Due to equipment aging, malfunctions, or maintenance needs, some melamine production units may still undergo planned maintenance this week. These maintenance activities are usually notified in advance and minimize the impact on production as much as possible. The implementation of the maintenance plan will have an impact on the supply and demand relationship of the melamine market. If maintenance leads to a decrease in supply while demand remains stable or increases, it may have a certain impact on market prices. The demand for melamine in downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings remains stable without significant growth or decline. This stable downstream demand has to some extent supported the smooth operation of the melamine market.

Inventory and raw material impact

Some melamine production enterprises may respond to fluctuations in raw material prices by adjusting inventory. This inventory adjustment mechanism has to some extent stabilized market prices and reduced the direct impact of raw material price fluctuations on the market. Although there may still be some volatility in the future raw material urea market, the impact of current raw material prices on the melamine market is relatively limited. This is due to the combined effect of market supply and demand balance and inventory adjustment mechanism. As of March 10th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1861.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.64% compared to the beginning of this month (1892.00 yuan/ton).

market prospect

According to the market analysis report, the market size of melamine is expected to continue to grow. For example, the global melamine market is expected to reach approximately $7.5 billion by 2025. This growth trend provides broad development space for the melamine market.

Although the melamine market remained stable this week, there is still some uncertainty in the future market trend. Fluctuations in raw material prices, changes in downstream demand, and policy adjustments may all have an impact on market prices. Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, and develop reasonable business strategies to cope with potential market risks.

In summary, the melamine market was mainly stable this week, thanks to the combined effects of multiple factors such as market supply and demand balance, stable production capacity, inventory regulation, and relatively stable raw material prices. However, there is still some uncertainty in the future market, and companies need to respond flexibly.

Market summary: This week, acrylonitrile prices hit the cost line, and the market downturn has slowed down. At present, the price of acrylonitrile has fallen below the level before the price increase in early January and has dropped to below 9000 yuan/ton, gradually approaching the theoretical production cost line. Acrylonitrile single products have already shown a loss state. As of March 7th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 8700-8900 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8600-8800 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Currently, the capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry remains at a relatively high level of around 89%, and although the domestic demand and export situation have improved, the overall supply is surplus. But as the price of acrylonitrile gradually approaches the cost line, the market’s expectations for future supply cuts have strengthened, and some factories have also released plans for maintenance or load reduction in order to have a stabilizing effect on the market. Considering the expectation of a bottoming out in the market and the improvement in downstream buying intentions, the market decline is gradually narrowing.

High inventory: Overall supply surplus. According to statistics, as of March 5th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was around 50000 tons, an increase of+0.1 million tons from last week, and the inventory was at a high level.

On the demand side: In March, the main downstream industries of acrylonitrile showed an increase in operating load, with ABS maintaining above 70%, acrylic gradually recovering to above 70%, and acrylamide slowly increasing to nearly 60%, resulting in an overall increase in consumption. In addition, as domestic prices fall to low levels, the export arbitrage window opens again, and spot negotiations resume, it is expected that export volume will significantly increase in April and May.

Market forecast: In the short term, the acrylonitrile market will continue to bottom out, waiting for factory production cuts to take effect, and the improvement of supply and demand relations will still take time. However, new production capacity will gradually follow suit in the future. From late March to April, Yulong Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Zhenhai Refining and Chemical’s new acrylonitrile units are all planned to be put into operation, and the supply from north to south will still increase at that time. Therefore, with the expectation of reduced production in existing facilities and the release of new capacity, the acrylonitrile market is expected to hit bottom but lacks momentum for rebound.

This week (3.1-3.7), the macro sentiment is positive, supported by rising costs, and the nickel market is moving up. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of March 7th, spot nickel was reported at 130658 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.71% and an annual decrease of 3.85%.

Macro: China’s official manufacturing PMI for February was 50.2, returning to the expansion range. The domestic two sessions boost market confidence. The domestic economic target is to achieve a GDP growth rate of around 5% by 2025, a CPI increase of around 2%, and a deficit rate of around 4%. Overseas, the US ISM Services PMI for February was 53.5, higher than expected. However, the ADP employment figure of 77000 was lower than expected. Against the backdrop of escalating trade conflicts following US President Trump’s imposition of new tariffs, the US dollar has weakened.

Supply side: In March 2025, the benchmark price for domestic trade of Indonesian nickel ore was 15306.52 US dollars per wet ton, an increase of about 0.2%, highlighting the cost support of price rebound.

Inventory: Domestic inventory reduction growth rate, but the pattern of nickel surplus continues. On March 7th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 26682 tons, a decrease of 989 tons during the week; The trend of LME nickel inventory accumulation has not stopped. On March 7th, LME nickel inventory was 198522 tons, an increase of 3558 tons during the week.

Demand side: Stainless steel still maintains a low price, high production, and high inventory pattern, the real estate market is sluggish, and consumption is still trying to recover. After March, there may be positive changes on the demand side, such as a rebound in demand in industries such as construction and home appliances, and inventory pressure is expected to be alleviated. On March 7th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in Shengyi Society was 12271.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% from the beginning of the month. The market share of ternary batteries is expected to further weaken.

Market forecast: Macro sentiment is boosted, demand slightly improves, short-term supply-demand contradiction is suppressed, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate within the range.