According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has recently been sorted out from November 11th to November 11th. As of November 11th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market is around 17184 yuan/ton, up 1.95% from 16855 yuan/ton on November 1st, with a low point of 16764 yuan/ton during the cycle. Recently, the price range of raw materials has fluctuated; Domestic Tianjian inventory continues to increase slightly; Downstream tire factories tend to stock up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, but they have some resistance to high priced sources, and the natural rubber market is consolidating in the high range.

With the arrival of the peak season for the opening and cutting of natural rubber in the fourth quarter, there is upward resistance in the price of raw rubber; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally are still fluctuating within a certain range. As of November 11th, the price of Thai glue is 73.17 Thai baht per kilogram; As of November 11th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 17600 yuan/ton.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of November 3, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 413000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous period.

Downstream tire production is undergoing narrow consolidation, with demand mainly supported by the natural rubber market’s essential needs. As of November 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 60%.

Market forecast: The current range of raw material supply prices both domestically and internationally is fluctuating; The tire market supports the demand for natural rubber, but is resistant to high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian has slightly increased; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly fluctuate in the weak range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on November 8th, the average market price has been adjusted to 6345 yuan per ton.

In terms of costs, the Federal Reserve continued to cut interest rates in November, coupled with Hurricane Rafael posing risks to crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region, leading to an increase in international oil prices. With the temporary consumption of bearish sentiment in the market, polyester dual raw materials rose again on the 7th, and PET costs still have some support.

In terms of supply and demand, local sources of goods are tight, and PET market quotations are rebounding along with the raw material side. Considering the overall loose supply and limited downstream follow-up, the actual increase is limited.

Overall, it is expected that the PET market will remain stable in the short term with limited upward potential. The actual trend will depend on the trend of the raw material side and the subsequent actual supply and demand situation, and attention will be paid to changes in crude oil.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 7th, the reference average price of domestic urea market is 2183 yuan/ton, which is 0.42% lower than the reference average price of 2193 yuan/ton on November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

In the first week of November, the domestic urea market price first fell and then rose. As of November 7th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1800-1820 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1840 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1830 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 1860 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, there has been a decrease in supply and limited demand in the urea market. On the supply side, there has been a decrease in urea market supply this week, with some companies undergoing equipment maintenance and a high volume of pending orders. In terms of demand, downstream purchases are made on demand, mainly for essential needs, and market transactions are still acceptable.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has seen a slight increase in recent days, and market transactions have improved. At present, urea inventory remains high, and downstream demand follow-up is limited. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market will mainly experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation.

This week, the melamine market has indeed shown a weak trend, with an increase in supply being an important factor leading to market weakness. As of November 6th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6675.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.19% compared to the beginning of this month (6687.50 yuan/ton).

The following is a detailed analysis of the current operation of the melamine market:

1、 Supply increase

New production capacity deployment: Recently, multiple melamine plants have been put into operation or planned to be put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in market supply.

Restoration of Maintenance Equipment: Some melamine units that were previously shut down due to maintenance have resumed production, further increasing market supply.

2、 Weak demand

Insufficient production in downstream industries: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in production load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.

Reduced procurement demand: Due to increased supply and insufficient demand, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their procurement demand for melamine, further exacerbating the weak market situation.

3、 Market price trend

Price decline: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. Although prices have fluctuated during certain periods, overall, the market price center is gradually shifting downwards.

Limited decline: Due to factors such as raw material costs, the decline in melamine market prices is relatively limited. However, against the backdrop of oversupply and insufficient demand, market prices still face significant downward pressure.

4、 Trend of raw material prices

The main reasons for the decrease in urea prices this week include increased supply, reduced demand, lower costs, pessimistic market expectations, and policy impacts.

The main raw materials for producing urea are coal and natural gas. In the first half of 2024, domestic coal supply was abundant, downstream daily consumption recovered slowly, coal inventories remained high, and the center of gravity of coal prices continued to shift downwards, resulting in a decrease in the production cost of urea and providing some space for the decline of urea prices. As of November 6th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2181.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.63% compared to the beginning of this month (2195.00 yuan/ton).

5、 Market outlook

Prominent supply-demand contradiction: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the sustained weakness of downstream industry demand, the supply-demand contradiction in the melamine market will become even more prominent.

Low price operation: It is expected that the market price of melamine will remain low for a period of time in the future. However, the specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.

In summary, the main reasons for the weak operation of the melamine market this week are the increase in supply and weak demand. Against the backdrop of oversupply and insufficient demand, market prices are showing a downward trend. The future market trend will be influenced by various factors, including the deployment of new production capacity, the recovery of downstream industry demand, and changes in raw material costs. Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships in order to flexibly respond to market challenges and seek development opportunities.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market continued to operate steadily in early November, with an average price of 2775 yuan/ton, unchanged from the same period in October.

Market situation: The decline in raw material prices has weakened support for formic acid, and downstream industries continue to make essential purchases. The formic acid market is mainly stable.

Upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market has recently surged and fallen, with no practical support for downstream demand, and market sentiment is cold. It is expected that the reduction in import volume in the later stage and the expected restrictions on the use of natural gas at home and abroad will further provide support for the methanol market, leading to a strong and volatile trend in its prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there are favorable factors for upstream methanol, which may provide certain support for the formic acid market. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

Market summary: The phenomenon of supply differentiation between the north and south regions still exists during the week, and the supply in the east China region is still tight. With the support of cost, the domestic acrylonitrile market is fluctuating upwards.

On the supply side: During the week, a 130000 ton production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 1 # acrylonitrile plant was recently shut down for maintenance. Currently, the remaining two lines are operating, and the overall load has dropped to less than 50%. The capacity utilization rate in the East China region has decreased, and the supply is tight. The northern market is basically operating normally, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry has reached 73.42%, an increase of 0.02% compared to the same period last week. The total output of the factory during the week was 67900 tons, and the inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was 49400 tons. Currently, there is no inventory pressure in the industry.

In terms of cost: This week, the price of propylene in Shandong’s market fluctuated at a high level, with the mainstream closing reference being 6870-7000 yuan/ton. At present, the inventory of propylene enterprises is mostly at a low level. With the rise of propylene prices to a high level, the downstream sentiment of gradually increasing prices has weakened, which may support or weaken the price trend.

In terms of demand, the utilization rate of downstream ABS production capacity has increased to 68.82%, an increase of 7.32% compared to the same period last week at 61.5%, indicating an increase in demand for acrylonitrile.

Market expectation: Currently, the supply differentiation between the North and South regions continues, and the domestic acrylonitrile market is expected to remain strong. The supply in the East China region is still tight, and the current industry inventory is not under pressure. Main manufacturers will continue to raise prices. However, with abundant supply in the north and overall supply-demand balance in the country, there are also obstacles to continued market growth.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke rose in October. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 1478.50 yuan/ton on October 31 and 1428.50 yuan/ton on October 1, with a monthly increase of 3.50%.

Cost wise: International oil prices fluctuated in October, with a significant increase in crude oil market prices at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East has had an impact, which is positive news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In mid to late October, oil prices began to fall, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market. Overall, the price of crude oil market has not changed much and is mainly fluctuating.

Supply side: During the National Day holiday, the crude oil market rose, the domestic commodity market pushed up, local refineries shipped normally during the holiday, downstream receiving sentiment was positive, and with downstream demand support after the holiday, the market for local refined petroleum coke continued to rise in the first half of October; In the second half of October, downstream purchases will be made on demand, and refineries will actively ship. Refineries will adjust the price of petroleum coke based on indicators and inventory. In October, the spot of low sulfur petroleum coke at the port was limited, with low inventory and increased market inquiries.

On the demand side: The overall market situation of 10 metal silicon is not volatile, and the supply of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Shandong is relatively stable. Yunnan mainly delivers early orders, and the overall price on the supply side is relatively low and stable. The overall purchasing volume of silicon metal downstream is limited, and downstream purchases are cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The overall market recovery from the demand side is average. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is average, and the support for the petroleum coke market is average.

The market for sulfur calcined coke in October first rose and then fell, with limited downstream demand. Currently, most companies are pre-saleing orders for next month, and downstream customers are mainly observing and waiting.

The daily production of Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises is at a high level, and the upward space has narrowed. However, recently, Southern Power Grid announced that Yunnan electrolytic aluminum may lift power restrictions this winter and next spring, and downstream electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is expected to not reduce production in the fourth quarter; Downstream multiple sectors have experienced a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing slight destocking. Aluminum carbon enterprises have stable demand and mainly purchase on demand.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream demand for petroleum coke in the refining industry is increasing, supporting the petroleum coke market. However, the latest pricing for pre baked anodes in November has slightly declined, and carbon companies are showing a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that petroleum coke prices will be adjusted narrowly based on indicators and inventory in the near future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8258 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 8466 yuan/ton on October 30th, with a price increase of 2.52% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10500 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 10866 yuan/ton on October 30th, with a price increase of 3.49% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8125 yuan/ton on October 1st, and the average price was 8475 yuan/ton on October 30th, with a price increase of 4.31% during this period.

The overall trend of polyethylene in October was strong, with a significant increase occurring after the National Day holiday. During the National Day holiday, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the crude oil market rose. After the holiday, the polyethylene market was boosted by favorable conditions, and prices increased significantly. The demand for agricultural film in October has entered the peak season, and there are positive expectations from the consumer side. On the supply side, with an increase in maintenance equipment and a reduction in supply, multiple favorable factors have boosted the upward trend of polyethylene prices. Starting from mid month, most enterprise quotations have remained firm, with a significant decline in high-voltage products. There are expectations of an increase in the supply side of high-voltage products, and some enterprises have restarted their equipment, which has suppressed the continuous downward movement of high-voltage product prices. In addition, the market has a resistance to high priced goods, and the market demand is lower than expected, resulting in low downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods. Most of the essential needs are mainly purchased at low prices. As the end of the month approaches, polyethylene is undergoing a weak and narrow adjustment. In order to promote transactions, businesses are actively offering discounts and shipping.

On October 31st, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8071 yuan and closed at 8150 yuan, up 76 yuan, with a high of 8166 yuan and a low of 8061 yuan, up 0.94%. The October futures market trend is weak, suppressing the spot market.

The maintenance of the polyethylene plant in the fourth quarter is limited, but the supply is sufficient, and new production capacity is gradually being put into operation; The demand for agricultural film is gradually weakening in November, and it is expected that polyethylene will mainly show a weak trend.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been stable with some weakness, and spot prices of various grades have fluctuated. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11500 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -0.11% compared to the price level on October 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: At the end of October, the load level of the domestic ABS industry slightly increased. Recently, some maintenance facilities in northern Huajin and Tianjin Dagu have resumed work, and the industry’s operating rate has increased by 5% to nearly 67%. The overall amount of goods produced on-site is slightly more than digested. The supply remains at a sufficient level, and the macroeconomic atmosphere in the early stage has stimulated some short positions. The current situation is basically exhausted, and the effect of destocking is limited. Currently, the inventory position remains at a high level of over 180000 tons. Overall, the current supply side’s support for ABS spot prices has weakened.

Cost factor: During late October, the upstream three materials of ABS showed two increases and one flat trend, which eased the drag on the cost side of ABS. The acrylonitrile market continues to rise. Some regions experienced a contraction in spot supply within the next ten days, prompting producers to raise prices accordingly. At the same time, the overall inventory position of the industry is moderate, providing ample room for the market to rise. The increase in operating rates of downstream products has also raised demand expectations, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to rise.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been consolidating sideways, and the good news of replenishing inventory after the holiday has been completely digested. At the same time, the industry’s production has increased and supply has increased, resulting in a decrease in supply and demand, and the market is under pressure. However, as downstream markets such as synthetic rubber shift profits from butadiene, consumer power also builds a bottom for the butadiene market. The current spot market is balanced by long and short positions, with prices generally stable and fluctuating slightly.

Recently, the styrene market has continued to rise. The current basis continues to strengthen, and monthly negotiations are mainly focused on exchanges. Styrene inventory has decreased in Jiangsu ports and in South China ports. Combined with last week’s decline in industry operating rates, the styrene market has shifted from a decline to an increase. There are many inquiries in the current market, and actual orders are cautious. It is expected that the styrene market will slightly strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

In terms of demand: At the end of October, the main terminal demand for ABS has not yet shown the peak season level. With the decline of stocking up and short selling after the beginning of the month, the market has returned to the off-season trend, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence in the future market, their willingness to build warehouses decreases, and their offers are subject to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

At the end of October, the domestic ABS prices showed weak consolidation. Upstream three materials saw two increases and one leveling off, providing comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS to stabilize. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly increased, while the high inventory of finished products remains unchanged. The weak demand on the demand side is difficult to change, and market trading is weak. The mismatch between supply and demand within the venue has not been effectively improved. It is expected that the ABS market will mainly operate weakly in the short term in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 29th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 2175 yuan/ton, which is 0.83% higher than the reference average price of 2157 yuan/ton on October 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market price fluctuated and rose in October, but then fell weakly. As of October 29th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1770-1810 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1810-1830 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1810 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1890 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 29, 2024 to October 21, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. The maximum increase in October was 0.93% in the week of the 10th and 7th, and the maximum decrease was -1.18% in the week of the 10th and 21st,

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this month. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement, market trading is average, and transactions are limited. At present, the supply and demand are relatively balanced.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has been steadily consolidating and operating in recent days. At present, there is no positive news in the market, with downstream demand being the main focus. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will experience a slight consolidation and operation in the short term.