Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market was consolidating and operating in early January, with limited changes in spot prices for most brands. As of January 7th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16500 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.10% compared to January 1st.

Cause analysis

Supply side: In early January, the load changes of domestic PC aggregation enterprises were very limited, and the industry average operating rate was slightly adjusted from 78% at the end of December to 77.5%. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply is still abundant, with no change in the supply-demand mismatch pattern. The high inventory has led to cautious pricing by manufacturers, while the market supply side has provided average support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant recovery of bisphenol A in December, the bulls have gradually exhausted recently, and downstream demand is running steadily. The upward movement of bisphenol A prices is hindered, and after falling back, it runs sideways. The support for PC cost has weakened.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. Previously, some export orders were placed in advance in the market, and currently the overall logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues, with industry players showing a wait-and-see attitude. As the end of the lunar calendar approaches, downstream factories are taking over goods to maintain production, and buyers are resistant to high priced goods. Therefore, purchasing and chasing price increases should be cautious. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

At the beginning of January, the PC market remained stable with small fluctuations. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently stagnant and consolidating, maintaining support for PC costs. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has basically leveled off, and the supply level remains at a high level. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. Business Society believes that the high raw material prices in the early stage have led to a high cost value of PC currently. However, due to the continued loose supply of goods in the market, the market may continue to consolidate weakly.

Last week (December 27, 2024- January 5, 2025), the adhesive short fiber market maintained stable operation. The price trend of upstream raw material market has slightly declined, the cost side support has weakened, the supply in the market has increased narrowly, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories is not high, and they are holding onto the demand for replenishment in multiple aspects. Operators mainly execute the previous contracts, and the price of adhesive short fiber market has been consolidating horizontally.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 5th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13820 yuan/ton, which was the same as the same period last week.

Cost of raw materials: Last week (December 27, 2024- January 5, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolution slurry, while the prices of auxiliary liquid alkali and sulfuric acid markets fell to varying degrees. The center of gravity of raw material market prices fell, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers significantly decreased.

Supply inventory: Last week (December 27, 2024- January 5, 2025). The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remains at around 86.3%, with a slight increase in production compared to last week. During the week, the pre maintenance equipment for adhesive short fibers in Shandong region has resumed full load operation, and the on-site supply has increased; In addition, the early orders on site are coming to an end, and the enthusiasm for replenishment in downstream markets is not high, resulting in a slowdown in the overall flow of goods and a significant increase in inventory levels.

On the demand side: The downstream cotton yarn market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, with prices remaining stagnant and consolidating. Although we are at a new stage of signing contracts, the demand in the end market is weak, downstream yarn companies have insufficient orders, yarn manufacturers are holding onto essential orders in multiple dimensions, and purchasing enthusiasm is difficult to increase. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side.

Market forecast:

The main material dissolution slurry market and auxiliary material liquid alkali market may be in consolidation operation in the later stage, and there is a downward expectation in the sulfuric acid market; Supply and demand side: The adhesive short fiber market is expected to maintain stable operation, with high on-site supply and increased inventory levels. In the short term, the performance of the adhesive short fiber supply side is still acceptable; The demand in the terminal market is weak, coupled with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, downstream yarn factories or multiple parties may hold onto the demand side and sign contracts, making it difficult for the demand side to have favorable support. Overall, the main raw material market is expected to operate steadily, with limited support on the cost side. Downstream cotton yarn factories are signing orders as needed, making it difficult for the demand side to improve significantly. With mixed news on the market, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will shift downward in the short term, with a decline expected to be between 100-300 yuan/ton.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices have slightly decreased this week. As of this weekend, the spot copper quotation is 73270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25% from 74196.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 6.29%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen by 9 and risen by 3, with a slight decrease this week.

LME copper inventory

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory slightly decreased, with 271350 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 0.02% from the beginning of the week.

Macroscopically, data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday evening showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the US fell to an 8-month low last week, and the number of renewed jobless claims also dropped to a 3-month low of 1.844 million. This data reflects the relatively small scale of layoffs in the US labor market, demonstrating surprising resilience. As a result, the US dollar exchange rate has significantly strengthened to a new two-year high, putting significant pressure on industrial metals as a whole, as the strengthening of the US dollar means that metals denominated in US dollars are more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

Supply side: The tight situation on the raw material side has not changed, with copper concentrate processing fees remaining low and crude copper processing fees decreasing. The completion of maintenance in domestic smelters and the demand for production recovery have brought incremental growth to electrolytic copper.

On the demand side: The Chinese New Year holiday is approaching in the domestic market, gradually entering the off-season of consumption, and downstream consumption is gradually weakening. The seasonal off-season has led to a buildup of inventory in the domestic market.

In summary, there is a lack of macro news in overseas markets, and although favorable domestic policies have curbed the decline in copper prices, weak post holiday consumption expectations have put pressure on copper prices. Therefore, copper prices still face downward pressure in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market in December was mainly sorted out, and the price changes of most brand products were relatively narrow. As of December 31st, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7646.67 yuan/ton, which has increased or decreased by 0.33% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the supply risk has increased due to the geopolitical situation in Syria. At the same time, the positive impact of the OPEC+production reduction plan delay is still present, coupled with the expectation of increased demand in Asia, international oil prices fluctuated and rose in the first half of December. At the end of the month, the US dollar strengthened and consumption contracted, which loosened the upstream support for PP in the far end. In terms of propylene, the domestic supply in North China was initially tight and then eased, and the favorable supply weakened, causing prices to rise first and then fall. Propane follows the trend of crude oil and runs steadily, while PDH remains stable due to its influence. Overall, the PP raw material market in December showed mixed ups and downs, and the cost side support was still strong.

Supply side:

In December, there was a mutual occurrence of maintenance and production in domestic PP enterprises, and the overall load level showed a slow upward trend. Jincheng Petrochemical, Dalian Hengli and other enterprises have newly put into operation facilities, but some of them have stopped again after being put into operation. At the end of the month, maintenance tasks for enterprises such as Zhongyue Haitian Petrochemical have gradually returned. Overall, the industry’s overall load has decreased from 68% in the first half of the month to around 78%. The domestic PP shipment volume has increased, and the average weekly production at the end of the month has rebounded to around 720000 tons. Although some newly put into operation facilities are unstable, the supply is still abundant. Overall, the supply side provides average support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

The demand side of PP in December is biased towards rigid demand. Due to seasonal factors, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remained stable with a slight decrease during the first ten days. The consumption level of plastic weaving has also declined narrowly, and the willingness to hold positions has cooled down; As the end of the year approaches, the decline in enterprise construction and stocking up are intertwined. The slow release of some pre holiday replenishment demand has to some extent boosted consumption. Overall, the demand side tends to have weak fluctuations in most aspects.

Future forecast

The domestic PP market prices remained stable in December. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The supply within the range is relatively high. According to consumer feedback, businesses are cautious about future terminal consumption and tend to focus on restocking for essential needs. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stagnant.

The butadiene rubber market in December showed an upward trend in the early stage, but fell back from its peak at the end of the month. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 13720 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.54% from 13380 yuan/ton at the beginning of December, and the high point during the cycle was 13920 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted upwards; Shunding rubber production has increased, and supply pressure is expected to increase; Downstream tire production has steadily increased slightly, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber., As of December 31st, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 13650-13850 yuan/ton.

Since December, the price of butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted upward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31st, the price of butadiene was 10800 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.05% from 9725 yuan/ton at the beginning of December.

In December, the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased to around 7.7%, and the supply pressure of butadiene rubber will slightly increase in the later period.

Demand side: Since December, downstream tire production has remained stable with a slight increase, and demand is supported by the strong demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of December 31st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises has slightly increased to about 6.20%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber remains strong; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, and the pressure on the supply side has increased; The current downstream tire production is stable with slight fluctuations, and overall, the market for Shunding rubber is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China has risen this month (12.1-12.30), with an average market price of 239800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 244910 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 2.13%.

At the beginning of December, tin prices showed a fluctuating upward trend, and began to decline in mid December, stabilizing and oscillating towards the end of the month. Macroscopically, the uncertainty will increase next year, and there is currently no clear guidance on the trend of tin prices.

At the mining end, Myanmar’s imports of tin ore have not yet recovered this month, and domestic mines have not significantly increased production, resulting in a low supply of tin ore.

On the refining end, although there has been no significant increase in the mining end, it has been affected by the replenishment of recycled tin, resulting in a high operating rate of tin ingots throughout the year and a historically high production of refined tin. With the recent recovery of Indonesian exports and a significant increase in domestic imports, the supply of refined tin has increased significantly.

On the demand side, in the short term, due to the downward consolidation of prices, downstream consumption performance slightly exceeded expectations, and overall demand growth has been maintained. The semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, which supports demand. The demand for photovoltaics continues to weaken. Pay attention to the impact of changes in foreign tariff policies on tin demand.

Overall, the trend of tin prices will depend on the combined effect of multiple factors. On the one hand, with the recovery of the global economy and the development of emerging fields, the demand for tin is expected to continue to increase. On the other hand, the production capacity of tin will continue to increase, and the uncertainty on the supply side may have an impact on tin prices. It is expected that the tin price will show a weak and fluctuating trend, showing a slight fatigue, and the upward driving force is not obvious.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (12.23-12.27), with an average market price of 244720 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 244660 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.02%.

The overall tin price has slightly decreased this week. Starting this week, tin prices have shown a narrow range of fluctuations both internally and externally. From a macro perspective, during the overseas Christmas holiday this week, the overall foreign market was sluggish. The US dollar index continued to fluctuate at a high level during the week, and the non-ferrous metal sector was generally under pressure.

Fundamentally, the overseas mining sector continues to be tense, providing support for tin prices below. The performance of terminal consumption has not changed significantly and continues to be weak. Most downstream customers maintain their essential purchases, and market transactions are average. The inventory status has slowed down during the week.

Based on comprehensive analysis, due to the support of tin inventory on prices, coupled with the possibility of Myanmar’s tin mine resuming production less than expected, the supply after resuming production may not reach the level before the shutdown. It is expected that the center of gravity of tin prices will remain high and continue to fluctuate within the range next week.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province has slightly declined, with an average market price of 16266 yuan/ton at the end of the month and 16466 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 1.21%.

This month’s market analysis

In the last month of 2024, the magnesium market is still in a downward consolidation phase. As of today, the ex factory price of Fugu magnesium ingots remains between 16000-16300 yuan/ton. In the last week, magnesium prices remained stable, bottoming out and stabilizing.

Supply and demand side

On the one hand, as Christmas approaches, the purchasing willingness of foreign customers decreases, coupled with existing inventory pressure, the market presents a certain degree of loose supply and demand. On the other hand, the domestic market still has strong demand support, especially with the development of industries such as new energy vehicles and aerospace. The application scenarios of magnesium continue to expand, and factories have a clear willingness to raise prices under cost pressure.

In addition, the weakness of the raw material market, especially under the price fluctuations of metals closely related to the magnesium market such as aluminum and zinc, still puts competitive pressure on magnesium. At the same time, the uncertainty of the global economic recovery rate has put pressure on many magnesium production companies to operate at a loss, forcing them to remain cautious in pricing.

In terms of raw materials

Raw material ferrosilicon, the spot market for ferrosilicon is not volatile, and the progress of steel procurement is slow. Under the influence of the emotional season, the enthusiasm for retail inquiries and purchases is not high, and the market demand is mainly based on essential needs. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 23rd, ferrosilicon (brand: FeSi75～B; The market price for grain size grade/mm: natural block in Ningxia region ranges from 5950-6100 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6070 yuan/ton.

Raw material blue charcoal, the national blue charcoal market price is weak, downstream mainstream calcium carbide enterprises have lowered the purchase price of small and medium-sized blue charcoal materials by 50 yuan/ton, and the market has gradually implemented the reduction. There are some low-priced sources of goods, and the coke face has also experienced a 10-30% reduction in cost. As of December 20th, the mainstream prices for small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 745-870 yuan/ton, and 560-640 yuan/ton for coke surface; The mainstream prices for small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market are 800-950 yuan/ton, and 600-700 yuan/ton for coke surface; The mainstream price of coke in the Zhongwei market is 600 yuan/ton; Shizuishan market mixed material costs 620 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in the Ordos market is 785-850 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 650-750 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hohhot market is 860-870 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 720 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hami market is 920-1050 yuan/ton, coke surface is 380-1050 yuan/ton, and mixed materials are 220-360 yuan/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Changji market is 850-1220 yuan/ton, and the price of coke surface is 550 yuan/ton, all of which are ex factory cash prices including tax; The prices of small and medium-sized materials such as blue charcoal at Tianjin Port are 1050-1160 yuan/ton, and coke face is 835-950 yuan/ton, both of which are cash inclusive of taxes at the port closing price; Yumen Blue Charcoal currently has a small material price of 280-550 yuan/ton, a coke surface price of 395-690 yuan/ton, a coke powder price of 570-590 yuan/ton, and a rice material price of 425-450 yuan/ton, all of which are cash inclusive of tax at the factory price.

Future forecast

In summary, although the magnesium market is currently facing difficulties in falling further due to the cost line, there has not been a significant increase in demand. We are gradually stabilizing, but we still need to closely monitor market dynamics, especially supply chain, cost changes, and the recovery of international market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (12.22-12.26), with an average market price of 16300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16266 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.20%.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the magnesium market has slightly lowered its prices, with the lowest price remaining stable at 16000 yuan/ton. Due to the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays, there is less demand from abroad, and domestic procurement remains essential. The overall magnesium market is relatively flat, with mostly wait-and-see measures.

Supply and demand side

This week, magnesium prices are still under pressure due to the approaching of two major holidays abroad, reduced demand, and the unchanged pattern of more supply and less demand. However, the overall cost of the upstream magnesium plant is already in a state of loss, and there is a strong willingness to raise prices due to cost support.

The delivery of 75 silicon iron at the raw material end remains stable. The spot market is temporarily stable, and futures have bottomed out and rebounded, but the demand side support is limited, and the overall supply and demand pattern has not changed. The factory’s willingness to lower prices is not high, and it is expected that the short-term silicon iron market will operate weakly and steadily.

comprehensive analysis

The magnesium market is still under upward pressure, but the downward space continues to compress, and in the short term, the upstream and downstream of the market are in a dilemma of rising and falling. Maintain a slight fluctuation and run steadily. Magnesium prices fluctuate narrowly within the range.

1、 Price trend

This week, the market price of melamine remained stable without significant fluctuations. This may be related to the decline in raw materials, low capacity utilization, and general demand, without obvious upward momentum or downward pressure. As of December 25th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 640250 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.27% compared to the beginning of this month (6420.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Supply situation

1. Production capacity and output: Currently, the production capacity of melamine is relatively stable, and some new production capacity is gradually being released, but the overall output has not shown a significant increase. This may be related to poor industry profitability, reduced production by manufacturers, or delayed production of new capacity.

2. Operating rate: Recently, the operating rate of melamine enterprises may remain at a certain level, neither too high nor too low. This helps to maintain the stability of market supply and avoid excessive price fluctuations.

3、 Demand situation

1. Downstream industries: The downstream industries of melamine mainly include sheet metal, papermaking, molding plastics, etc. The demand situation of these industries has a significant impact on the melamine market. At present, downstream industries may still be in a sluggish state, with insufficient production and weak demand. This may have a certain suppressive effect on the melamine market.

2. Export situation: Although the export volume of melamine has alleviated domestic sales pressure to some extent, the export situation may not be stable due to factors such as international market demand and shipping costs.

4、 Raw material situation

As the main raw material of melamine, the price trend of urea has a significant impact on the melamine market. Recently, urea prices may remain relatively stable or fluctuate slightly, and their cost support for melamine may not be significant. As of December 25th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1828.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.72% compared to the beginning of this month (1981.25 yuan/ton).

5、 Market outlook

1. Short term outlook: It is expected that the melamine market will continue to operate steadily in the short term. The market supply and demand relationship is relatively balanced, with no obvious upward momentum or downward pressure.

2. Long term outlook: With the gradual recovery of the domestic economy and the increasing demand from downstream industries, the melamine market may usher in certain opportunities. However, it is also necessary to pay attention to the impact of factors such as the deployment of new production capacity, the trend of raw material prices, and international market demand on the market.

In summary, the melamine market has been running steadily this week, with relatively stable prices and a relatively balanced supply-demand relationship. But it is also necessary to pay attention to changes in market dynamics and influencing factors in order to adjust business strategies in a timely manner.