According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on February 27th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 11210 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as February 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton). Compared with January 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since February, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall trend of large stability and small decline. From the beginning of the month to the middle of the month, the spot market for silicon metal has been operating steadily, with little change within the market and a relatively stable market performance. At the end of the month, the market prices of some grades in the spot market of silicon metal loosened and declined, including silicon metal # 553 and 552 in East China, # 553 in Tianjin, and # 441 in Shanghai. As of February 26th and 21st, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # in East China is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is around 11300~11500 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is around 11000~11100 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is around 11400~11700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton.

analysis of influencing factors

In terms of construction: Currently, the operating rate of metal silicon in Xinjiang is around 6 floors, and it is expected that a small number of new furnaces will be added in the short term, but the overall growth rate is limited. The operating rate of metallic silicon in the northwest region remains stable at around 8 layers. Some enterprises in Yunnan have maintenance plans, and the operating rate of metal silicon has narrowly declined, with an operating rate of around 2 floors.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, both the supply and demand sides of silicon metal are still weak, and there is overall shipping pressure on the supply side, resulting in some loosening of market prices. The recovery of downstream demand is average, with poor purchasing sentiment and demand mainly focused on essential purchases. The overall transmission of supply and demand is weak.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light, and the supply-demand game is showing some signs. The metal silicon data analyst of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly adjust and operate weakly. Specific changes in supply and demand news need to be paid more attention to. The positive guidance of the market situation also requires the two-way boosting effect of both supply and demand sides.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first rose and then fluctuated at a high level in February. As of the end of the month, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 75233.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose to 76960 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 10.97%.

According to the Business Society’s current chart, in early February, copper spot prices were mostly higher than futures prices, and the main prices were higher than spot prices in mid to late February. The main contract is the expected price two months later, and it is expected that the price will rise in the future.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory first fell and then rose in February. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 267225 tons, up 4.74% from the beginning of the month.

Macroscopically, the January Federal Reserve interest rate meeting announced that the target range for the federal funds rate would remain unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with market expectations.

On February 1st Eastern Time, the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on imported goods from China. On February 10th local time, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States, stating that there are “no exceptions or exemptions” to the relevant requirements. In addition, in mid February, Trump announced that he would impose equivalent tariffs on US trading partners, but did not specify when the tariffs would be imposed.

On February 1st Eastern Time, the Trump administration announced a 10% tariff on imported goods from China. On February 10th local time, US President Trump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States, stating that there are “no exceptions or exemptions” to the relevant requirements. In addition, in mid February, Trump announced that he would impose equivalent tariffs on US trading partners, but did not specify when the tariffs would be imposed.

On the supply side, the overall operation of overseas mines in February was stable, and there were no significant supply disruptions. The processing fee for imported copper concentrate has been in the negative range for a consecutive month, and the decline in TC has further expanded, indicating a tight supply of copper concentrate. It is expected that three smelters in China will have maintenance plans in March, which will expand the maintenance efforts compared to February.

Downstream: After the Chinese New Year holiday, cable companies have gradually resumed work and production, and the operating rate of copper cable companies has rebounded.

In January 2025, the production of household air conditioners in China decreased by 4.2% year-on-year to 16.672 million units, while the total sales increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 17.734 million units; During the same period, the export volume of household air conditioners increased by 17.0% year-on-year to 10.521 million units, becoming the main driving force for market growth.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, automobile production in January decreased by 2.2% year-on-year to 2.45 million vehicles; During the same period, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 29% year-on-year to 1.015 million units.

According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly risen in February.

In summary, the overall supply of ore remains tight. In terms of demand, with the traditional peak season approaching, the air conditioning industry is the most active, and the cable and automotive industries will see a seasonal rebound in demand in March. However, against the backdrop of a volatile macro environment, the Trump administration is planning to impose tariffs on aluminum and copper, which poses obstacles to economic growth and demand, coupled with the continued accumulation of copper inventories. It is expected that copper prices will experience strong fluctuations in March.

1、 Market performance

Price increase: With the rise in raw material costs, the market price of melamine has also increased. There are differences in the prices of melamine in different regions, brands, and concentrations, but the overall trend is stable with an upward trend. As of February 24th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6237.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the beginning of this month (6230.00 yuan/ton).

Despite the increase in costs, the market price of melamine has not experienced significant fluctuations. This may be due to the relatively stable market demand and the competitive landscape among enterprises, which makes it difficult for prices to rise significantly unilaterally.

At the same time, some enterprises have reduced costs by optimizing production processes and improving production efficiency, thereby offsetting to some extent the impact of rising raw material prices.

2、 Influence of raw materials

The main raw material for the production of melamine is urea, and the rise in urea prices directly leads to an increase in the production cost of melamine. On February 24th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1843.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.82% compared to the beginning of this month (1741.67 yuan/ton).

The prices of these raw materials are influenced by various factors such as international market supply and demand, transportation costs, and exchange rate fluctuations, resulting in significant uncertainty in their prices. When raw material prices rise, the production cost of melamine increases accordingly. In order to maintain profit levels, manufacturers often increase the selling price of melamine. Therefore, the significant increase in raw material prices is one of the important reasons for the stable and upward trend of the melamine market.

4、 Future prospects

1. Cost factors will continue to affect:

Factors such as raw material prices, production energy consumption, and environmental costs will continue to have an impact on the melamine market. Enterprises need to closely monitor changes in these cost factors in order to adjust production plans and sales strategies in a timely manner.

2. Downstream demand is expected to grow:

With the recovery of the economy and the recovery of downstream industries, the demand for melamine is expected to show an increasing trend. This will provide support for market prices and drive the industry towards a healthier and more sustainable direction.

3. International cooperation and export opportunities:

In the context of globalization, domestic melamine enterprises should actively seek international cooperation opportunities, expand overseas markets, and increase export volume. This can not only alleviate the supply and demand pressure in the domestic market, but also enhance the international visibility and brand influence of the enterprise.

In summary, the characteristic of a stable and wait-and-see approach in the melamine market under increased costs is the result of multiple factors working together. Enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes in order to adjust production plans and sales strategies in a timely manner, and seize opportunities in fierce market competition.

Last week (February 17-23, 2025), the adhesive short fiber market was consolidating and operating, with stability as the main trend and stable prices. The upstream raw material market is running steadily at a high level, with good support on the cost side. There is currently no inventory pressure on the market, and supply side support still exists. However, the downstream market mainly executes early orders, with limited replenishment demand, and overall demand in the downstream market is average.

As of February 23rd, the average market price of viscose staple fiber is 13720 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous week’s price.

In terms of cost: Last week (February 17-23, 2025), the market price of raw material dissolution slurry continued to maintain a high and stable trend, the auxiliary material liquid alkali market continued to rise in price, the sulfuric acid market price rebounded after falling, the market price center of raw materials increased, and the average production cost of adhesive short fibers slightly increased.

On the demand side: The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market is gradually increasing, and prices are being pushed up locally. The demand in the terminal market has not shown significant improvement, and downstream yarn factories have resumed work one after another. The enthusiasm for replenishment is not high, and the execution of early orders and consumption of raw material inventory are the main factors. The demand side performance is mediocre.

Future forecast

On the raw material side, the market for adhesive short fiber main material dissolution slurry and auxiliary material sulfuric acid market or consolidation are the main markets, and prices have stabilized. Supply and demand side: Most of the devices in the adhesive short fiber market are operating stably, and there is little fluctuation in on-site supply; The downstream yarn market or consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor, and the demand side is closely following. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, so it is expected that the driving force of the short-term adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be weak.

Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may continue to maintain a stable trend, while the inventory level in the adhesive short fiber industry is not high. The downstream yarn market may still consume raw material inventory as the main source, and the trading activity in the market is average. Business analysis predicts that the domestic adhesive short fiber market for short fibers will not fluctuate much, with stability as the main factor, and prices are expected to be accepted at 13700-13850 yuan/ton.

Market Overview: This week, the domestic acrylonitrile market has continued to decline, with the decline widening. The supply is gradually increasing, while domestic demand and exports remain slow overall, highlighting the supply-demand contradiction once again. As of February 21st, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 10300-10600 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 10200-10500 yuan/ton.

Supply growth: Except for Lihua Yi continuing maintenance, all other devices maintain high load production, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate gradually increases to around 80%. The overall supply is abundant, and the scheduled maintenance of Silbang this month has been delayed. The overall operating load has increased from around 60% to over 70%; Zhejiang Petrochemical is also operating steadily at around 90%; As of February 20th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry has risen to 79.94%, an increase of 3.47% compared to the same period last week, with a weekly output of about 73900 tons. It is expected that by the end of February or early March, the industry capacity utilization rate will increase to over 85%, and the supply of acrylonitrile will significantly increase.

Inventory increase: According to statistics, as of February 19th, the inventory of domestic acrylonitrile factories was around 42500 tons, an increase of 0.52 million tons from last week, indicating a significant increase in inventory.

Flat demand: While acrylonitrile supply is gradually recovering, overall downstream consumption is showing weak performance, especially in the small and medium-sized downstream sectors where resumption of work is slower than in previous years. On the one hand, there is insufficient follow-up of terminal consumption, and on the other hand, after the high price of acrylonitrile, the main downstream industries such as acrylic fiber and acrylamide are facing losses, which affects their operating pace, especially the acrylic fiber industry, whose operating load has dropped to less than 50% after the holiday.

Cost wise: The rise in international oil prices this week is positive for market sentiment. The company’s shipments are smooth, inventory remains low, and the propylene market prices are stable with a moderate to strong trend. As of February 21st, the market price of propylene in Shandong is 6780-6880 yuan/ton, with average cost support.

Market forecast: Overall, the supply and demand relationship in the acrylonitrile market has changed. In the short term, the news shows that the supply is gradually increasing, and bearish sentiment will also lead to a continuous decline in spot market prices. However, there are still certain variables regarding whether the supply in March can be fully delivered as scheduled, and the uncertainty of expectations may to some extent suppress the downward trend of acrylonitrile.

The domestic polyester staple fiber market has relatively loose supply of goods, and downstream on-demand procurement transactions are sluggish. Recently (February 12-20), prices have shown a slight weakening. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 20, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06%. The average ex factory price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 7276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%.

Looking at the future, in the international crude oil market, the CPC oil pipeline in Russia has been attacked, resulting in a reduction of about 30% in oil transportation volume and supply, which will continue to drive up oil prices. As of February 19th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $72.25 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $76.04 per barrel.

The international crude oil market is relatively strong, and under the news game of PTA cost support, sufficient spot supply, and less than expected demand recovery, there has been an overall strong oscillation in recent times. As of February 20th, the average market price in East China was 5122 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.89% compared to February 13th. Under the low processing error of PTA, maintenance plans for PTA units have been gradually launched, and the extent of destocking has expanded compared to expectations. However, downstream polyester factories have limited raw material procurement, only maintaining essential needs or digesting early stock, resulting in increased resistance to inventory transfer at present.

The recovery of terminal textile demand is not smooth, the enthusiasm for buying is average, and the follow-up of essential procurement is maintained, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. Insufficient follow-up on weaving orders, slow resumption of work in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and overall shortage of fabric orders. The operating rate has slightly increased to 56%, but the progress is lower than expected.

Business analysts believe that the current cost support is still acceptable, and with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season of “gold, silver, and four”, the demand side will also improve. It is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber may rise slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market experienced narrow fluctuations and consolidation in mid February, with prices of some brand products fluctuating. As of February 19th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7520 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.51% compared to the price level at the beginning of January.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of mid month upstream crude oil, the recent geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, and market concerns about crude oil demand have expanded. In addition, the United States has imposed tariffs and Trump has requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices. Coupled with high US crude oil inventories, crude oil prices have been suppressed in multiple ways, resulting in a negative rate of change. The propylene sector is in a downward trend due to high prices at the beginning of the month and weak upstream conditions, while the propane sector also faces the risk of falling. Overall, the PP raw material market was weak and spread in mid February, making it difficult to obtain positive guidance on PP costs.

Supply side:

Recently, domestic PP enterprises have experienced significant fluctuations in their workload, and the market supply remains abundant. Overall, the industry’s overall load level has slightly decreased by 1% to around 79% compared to the first ten days, with an average weekly production of about 750000 tons in China. The expected decrease in PP shipment volume in the future is due to maintenance plans from companies such as Ningbo Fude, Jinneng Chemical, and Fujian Zhongjing. The supply side is expected to increase its support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

The post holiday PP demand side shows a weak and stable pattern. In mid February, although there was no significant increase in volume on site, the enterprises gradually resumed work after the holiday and the load increased. The consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice has shown signs of recovery, and the inventory of plastic weaving enterprises has been partially digested. The buyer camp’s stocking potential has expanded, and their willingness to purchase in the future has increased. Overall, the demand side is showing a positive trend.

Future forecast

In mid February, the domestic PP market prices fluctuated and stabilized. From a fundamental perspective, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is poor, and there is an expectation of a decrease in industry supply. There is a trend of recovery in consumption, and there is potential for an increase in market momentum. In the short term, it is expected that the PP price market may experience a rebound.

1、 Influence of raw materials

The production of melamine mainly relies on raw materials such as urea and sodium hydroxide. As of February 18th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1811.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.00% compared to the beginning of this month (1741.67 yuan/ton).

The prices of these raw materials are influenced by various factors such as international market supply and demand, transportation costs, and exchange rate fluctuations, resulting in significant uncertainty in their prices. When raw material prices rise, the production cost of melamine increases accordingly. In order to maintain profit levels, manufacturers often increase the selling price of melamine. Therefore, the significant increase in raw material prices is one of the important reasons for the stable and upward trend of the melamine market.

2、 Market performance

1. Price increase: With the rise in raw material costs, the market price of melamine also increases. There are differences in the prices of melamine in different regions, brands, and concentrations, but the overall trend is stable with an upward trend. As of February 18th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6287.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.92% compared to the beginning of this month (6230.00 yuan/ton).

2. Increased market demand: Despite the price increase, the market demand for melamine has not decreased, but rather increased. This may be due to an increase in demand for melamine in downstream industries, or a shift in demand caused by insufficient supply of substitutes.

3. Stable production capacity: Despite a significant increase in raw material prices, the production capacity of melamine has not been greatly affected and remains relatively stable. This is due to the continuous advancement of production technology and the improvement of production efficiency.

3、 Other factors

1. Policies and regulations: The government’s regulatory policies on food safety and environmental requirements for the chemical industry will also affect the price of melamine. With the strengthening of environmental policies, some small producers who do not meet environmental requirements have been eliminated, and market concentration has increased, which is conducive to large producers raising prices.

2. International trade environment: The recovery of the global economy and the improvement of the international trade environment are expected to further expand the import and export market for melamine. Domestic enterprises can increase sales and improve profitability through exports.

3. Downstream demand growth: Downstream consumption of melamine mainly consists of boards, impregnated paper, adhesives, and coatings, accounting for over 80% of the total. With the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous promotion of infrastructure construction, as well as the gradual recovery of the real estate and construction industries, the demand for melamine is expected to show an increasing trend.

4、 Future prospects

Although the melamine market is currently stable and rising, there is still uncertainty in the future. On the one hand, fluctuations in raw material prices may have an impact on the melamine market; On the other hand, changes in the domestic and international economic situation may also lead to changes in market demand and production capacity. Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, adjust procurement and sales strategies in a timely manner to cope with potential risks and opportunities.

In summary, the significant increase in raw material prices is one of the important factors driving the stable upward trend of the melamine market. Meanwhile, factors such as policies and regulations, international trade environment, and downstream demand growth have also had a positive impact on the melamine market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly increased in recent days (2.4-2.17). As of February 17, the spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market is around 17240 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38% from the pre holiday price of 16840 yuan/ton. High prices of raw materials after the holiday; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase slightly; After the Spring Festival, downstream production slowly increased, coupled with the volatile and strong market after the Shanghai Rubber Festival, driving the natural rubber spot market to slightly rise.

After the Spring Festival, production areas such as Vietnam and northeastern Thailand entered a period of suspension, and production areas in China are also in a period of suspension, with high raw material prices being consolidated. As of February 17th, the price of Thai glue is 66.50 Thai baht per kilogram.

Natural rubber inventory continues to show a state of accumulation. As of February 9, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 569000 tons, an increase of 16000 tons compared to the previous period.

Supply and demand side: After the Spring Festival, downstream tire production has been slow to increase, and the atmosphere of terminal buying is flat. Natural rubber is mostly purchased on a small order basis according to demand.

Market forecast: When domestic and foreign raw material prices stabilize at high levels, it will provide some support for natural rubber; But the slow increase in downstream construction and the continued increase in inventory at Tianjiao Port; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will mainly experience high and narrow fluctuations in the short term.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on February 17th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 11220 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as February 1st. Compared with January 1st (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.02%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in recent times, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has continued to operate steadily and steadily. The overall volatility of the silicon metal spot market is not significant, and the performance within the market is relatively calm. As of February 17th, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # in East China is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is around 11300~11500 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is around 11000~11100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the performance of the silicon metal supply side is relatively stable, and the activity of downstream demand is boosted. Silicon companies mainly focus on stabilizing prices in their supply, and the performance of supply side concessions is relatively low.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand for metallic silicon has improved, and the overall inquiry atmosphere has increased compared to the previous period. Some downstream orders have been released one after another, and market demand transmission is gradually warming up.

In terms of raw materials: Currently, the performance of the raw material silica market is stable, and factories are gradually resuming shipments. Downstream demand for essential purchases is the main focus, and the supply side is slightly loose. At present, the reference price for low-grade silica ore exports in Yunnan region is around 340-350 yuan/ton. The reference price for high-grade silica ore export in Inner Mongolia is around 360-390 yuan/ton. The reference price for high-grade ore export in Hubei region is around 420-450 yuan/ton.

In terms of construction: Currently, the performance of metal silicon on-site construction continues to be in a differentiated state, with overall high construction rates for large enterprises and low construction rates for small and medium-sized enterprises.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market has improved, and the mentality of metal silicon industry players has been boosted. The transmission between supply and demand is gradually warming up. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate steadily and positively, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.