In the current cycle (20240912-20240919), with good low-end supply transactions in the acrylic acid market, prices continue to rise steadily, and the atmosphere in the market is good. Although the follow-up of new orders has slowed down compared to the previous period, the mentality of manufacturers is strong, and market demand is multi-dimensional, holding a moderate purchase at low prices. As of September 18th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6775.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6750.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost

This week, the raw material propylene fluctuated within a narrow range, and the cost of acrylic acid did not fluctuate significantly. With the continuous rise in acrylic acid prices, the industry’s profitability continued to rebound. As of September 18th, the reference price of propylene was 6750.75, a decrease of 3.12% compared to September 1st (6968.25). At present, it is expected that there will be a narrow adjustment in the price of propylene market in the short term, but it is still necessary to closely monitor the follow-up of downstream demand in the later stage.

In terms of demand

The price of butyl acrylate has decreased. This week, the butyl acrylate market has slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet. Downstream manufacturers have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and transactions are mainly dominated by first-time contract holders. The focus of butyl acrylate quotations is gradually shifting downwards, and upstream cost support is also limited. In the short term, it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will remain stable and weak.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is maintaining a stable operation, while the upstream acrylic acid market is fluctuating within a range. The listed prices of production enterprises are fluctuating, and the listed prices of acrylic acid manufacturers are temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere on the market is flat, and the overall production capacity is at a low level with limited fluctuations. The downstream market’s enthusiasm for receiving goods needs to be improved, and long-term contracts are mainly executed. The short-term market may continue to consolidate and operate.

According to the data from the commodity market analysis system of the business community, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the terminal demand fell, and the hydrogen peroxide market fell. On September 16th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 816 yuan/ton, and on September 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 793 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86% in price.

Terminal demand drops, hydrogen peroxide market declines

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the rigid demand of the terminal will return next time, the water volume of hydrogen peroxide purchased by the manufacturer will decline, and the bad news will suppress. The hydrogen peroxide market will decline, and the overall quotation will be 700-800 yuan/ton. On September 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region was around 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, while the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 880 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Fujian region is 1100 yuan/ton, and the market is stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that at the end of September, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals was weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to weaken in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has decreased after the holiday. As of September 18th, the average market price of soda ash was 1706 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the pre holiday price of 1736 yuan/ton on September 14th, a decrease of 1.73%, and a decrease of 6.26% compared to the previous month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been consolidating and declining after the holiday. On the supply side, the equipment of maintenance enterprises is gradually recovering, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has been improved, the market supply of goods has increased, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is relatively high; On the demand side, there is an expectation of cold repair in the terminal market. The downstream glass industry mainly consumes inventory, resulting in insufficient demand for soda ash. The market supply is strong and demand is weak, leading to a weak downward trend in soda ash prices. On September 18th, the price of soda ash in East China was lowered, and the mainstream market price for light soda ash was around 1400-1650 yuan/ton; The price of soda ash in Central China has been lowered, and the mainstream market price for light soda ash is around 1350-1550 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of glass continues to decline. On September 18th, the market average price was 14.10 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.70% compared to the market average price of 14.20 yuan/square meter on September 14th. The glass market has sufficient inventory, low downstream purchasing enthusiasm, poor market trading, obvious bearish sentiment in the market, and glass prices continue to operate weakly.

Future forecast: Currently, the operating rate of domestic soda ash plants is relatively high, and the inventory of spot soda ash plants is sufficient. The downstream glass industry continues to be weak, with insufficient demand support. The soda ash market trading is average, and the atmosphere in the market is wait-and-see. It is expected that soda ash will remain weak and stable in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

This week (9.9-9.14), the domestic price of ethyl acetate first fell and then rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 14th, the price of ethyl acetate was 6003.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% compared to the price of 6016.67 yuan/ton on September 9th. The main reason is insufficient cost support, limited downstream demand, and fluctuations in equipment of some supply side enterprises, resulting in the consolidation and operation of ethyl acetate prices.

Market analysis: This week’s ethyl acetate market is consolidating weakly. On the raw material side, the stabilization of acetic acid prices is the main factor, with insufficient cost support and slow downstream inventory consumption. The enthusiasm for entering the market is not high, and the price of ethyl ester was weakly lowered at the beginning of the week; Afterwards, the main factories in Shandong stopped production, reducing the supply of goods in the market. The supply side news was positive, and the price of ethyl acetate rose sharply. However, the market trading atmosphere was poor, and the increase in ethyl acetate was limited.

Looking at the future market, the upstream acetic acid market for ethyl acetate is stable, with limited cost support and insufficient upward momentum for ethyl acetate; On the supply side, the Yankuang plant will resume operation next week, with an increase in capacity utilization, which will have a negative impact on the ethyl ester market; Downstream demand is weak and market support is weak. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will be weakly adjusted in the later period. Please pay attention to the changes in the upstream market and the follow-up situation in the downstream.

This week, the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 12th, the price of isooctanol was 7916.67 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 1.50% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on September 9th; Compared to September 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol was 7983.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83%. This week, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose. This week, the production of isooctanol units has gradually resumed, with an increase in isooctanol supply, an increase in downstream plasticizer DOP gross profit, an increase in DOP operating rate, an increase in demand for isooctanol, a double increase in isooctanol supply and demand, and a rebound in isooctanol prices.

Expected increase in isooctanol supply

In early September, there were many equipment shutdowns in isooctanol enterprises, and the original plan to restart isooctanol units in North China at the end of August was postponed to mid September. Several isooctanol enterprises stopped for maintenance in early September and are expected to resume operations in mid September. With the completion of the maintenance of the isooctanol equipment and the resumption of work, the expected supply of isooctanol in the future has increased, and there is still downward pressure on the price of isooctanol.

Expected increase in downstream plasticizer DOP start-up

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8501.25 yuan/ton, which rebounded and increased by 0.44% compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 9th; Compared to the DOP price of 8726.25 yuan/ton on September 1st, it has decreased by 2.58%. DOP prices rebounded and rose this week. The price of isooctanol continues to decline, the profit margin of plasticizer equipment expands, and the gross profit of downstream DOP products increases compared to August. Driven by profits, downstream plasticizer companies are expected to increase their operating rates, leading to an increase in demand for isooctanol.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, the supply and demand of isooctanol market increased in September. In terms of supply, the number of isooctanol manufacturers operating has increased, leading to an increase in isooctanol supply; In terms of demand, plasticizer companies have increased their production, with a focus on purchasing essential isooctanol, leading to a rebound in demand for isooctanol; The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, and the cost support of isooctanol still exists. As the price of isooctanol approaches the cost line, the profit margin for isooctanol manufacturers is limited. Under cost support, both supply and demand have increased, and the future rise of isooctanol is weak. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8296 yuan/ton on September 2, and the average price was 8251 yuan/ton on September 11, during which the quotation fell by 0.54%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10400 yuan/ton on September 2, and the average price was 10350 yuan/ton on September 11, during which the quotation fell by 0.48%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8225 yuan/ton on September 2, and the average price was 8200 yuan/ton on September 11, during which the quotation fell by 0.30%.

The price of polyethylene is running narrowly and weakly. The recent decline in international oil prices has weakened cost support, which is bearish for the polyethylene market. There are expectations of an increase in the supply side. According to data statistics, as of September 10th, the inventory of two barrels of plastic oil was 800000 tons, a decrease of 1.23% compared to the previous month and an increase of 15.94% year-on-year. Although there has been a decrease in the previous month, the year-on-year data has increased, and the pressure on the supply side is still present. The downstream of the demand side is in the peak demand season, and with the Mid Autumn Festival approaching, downstream factories are increasing their inventory replenishment behavior. However, overall support is limited, with rigid demand procurement as the main focus and low enthusiasm for intermediaries to enter the market.

On September 11th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 7891 yuan and closed at 7931 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan, with a high of 7935 yuan and a low of 7823 yuan, a decrease of 0.06%. The recent weak polyethylene futures market has suppressed the spot market.

There is an expectation of an increase on the supply side; Although downstream construction has increased, the recovery is slow, but overall support is limited. The supply-demand game is expected to have limited upward potential for polyethylene, with narrow range fluctuations being the main adjustment.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 10th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2125 yuan/ton, which is 2.21% lower than the reference average price of 2173 yuan/ton on September 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market prices have fallen this week. As of September 10th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1840-1880 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1890 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1880 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 1900 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market is oversupplied. In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this week. In terms of demand, agriculture and industry maintain a focus on essential needs. Downstream purchases of urea are relatively cautious, with low price transactions being the main focus in the market.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market trend has been weak and downward recently, with a decrease in market inquiries and limited transactions. At present, the demand side has not been released yet, and the market has strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

The market price of epichlorohydrin has slightly increased this week. As of September 6th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shengyi Society is 8000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the beginning of this month (7987.50 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has decreased and the price of liquid chlorine has increased, resulting in a situation of mixed ups and downs in the raw material side. The market support for epichlorohydrin is still acceptable. The price of raw material glycerol has fallen slightly, and overall, the cost pressure has eased. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6938.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.43% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: According to the overall operating rate of the epoxy chloropropane industry within the week, it was 50-60%.

Downstream demand side: Downstream epoxy resin rigid demand small orders are being followed up. With the rise in costs, manufacturers face increased cost pressure, and some companies are experiencing price increases. Early delivery orders are the main focus, and there is insufficient follow-up for new orders. The market center of gravity is changing steadily, with a moderate to strong trend.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that short-term costs and supply side support are still acceptable, with downstream demand buying as the main focus, insufficient follow-up of new orders, and cautious procurement of raw materials. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market will operate steadily in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 2nd to 6th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2460 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 3.02% during the period, a month on month decline of 3.64%, and a year-on-year decline of 6.10%. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline, with a weak macro outlook. Domestic methanol supply has recovered, import volume remains high, and port methanol inventories have accumulated. In addition, some downstream markets are still in the recovery stage, and demand has not yet recovered to a high level. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a downturn.

As of the close on September 6th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2384 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2398 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2368 yuan/ton. It closed at 2371 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton or 0.55% from the previous trading day’s settlement, with a trading volume of 635388 lots and a holding volume of 788828 lots, with a daily increase of 16863.

As of June 6th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2245-2250 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

Liaoning region/ 2720 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2400 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 2320-2325 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

In terms of cost, most coal mines maintain normal production and sales. At the end of last month, coal mines that were shut down due to completing monthly tasks gradually resumed normal production, and the overall coal supply level has rebounded. Some private mines adjust coal prices up and down based on sales, with a range of 10-20 yuan/ton, and there is no significant fluctuation in the overall price focus. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid has increased; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream chloride: The maintenance plan for the East China plant has reduced the demand for chloride; Downstream dimethyl ether: reduced demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the loss exceeds the recovery, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 5th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $346.00-347.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 108.00-109.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 341.00-342.00 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.

In the future forecast, the supply of goods will continue to be loose, and although traditional downstream production has increased, the magnitude is limited, which will have a certain drag on the market. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol market may mainly consolidate weakly.

Market Overview

Overall, the melamine market has shown weak fundamentals this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 4th, the reference price of melamine was 6750.00, a decrease of 0.37% compared to September 1st (6775.00). Under the support of the decrease in production capacity utilization rate in northern industries, the probability of market price stability has increased due to the shutdown or maintenance plan of some facilities in the north.

Overall, there is an expectation of a decrease in the utilization rate of melamine production capacity in the northern region, which supports manufacturers to raise prices.

Supply side

This week, domestic urea prices have continued to decline on a large scale, with most companies in mainstream regions such as Shandong, Hebei, Henan, and Anhui lowering their quotes by 30-40 yuan/ton. The ex factory price in Shandong has now fallen to 1890 yuan, and mainstream regions have officially entered the market starting from 2018. The transaction price in Inner Mongolia has fallen below 1800 yuan, and the outsourcing price in Xinjiang is as low as 1570-1600 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 5th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s urea was 2151.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.01% compared to the beginning of this month (2173.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of demand

The melamine market has recently cooled down, and from the perspective of demand and raw materials, the market has weak positive news and insufficient demand follow-up. It is reported that some sheet metal factories have recently reduced their operating load, and considering that the supply of melamine will increase in the later maintenance and restoration of multiple factories, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their demand for melamine procurement.

Overall, the decrease in local production capacity utilization rate of melamine has provided support for the market, but there is insufficient demand and raw material benefits, and the overall market atmosphere is average. It is expected that the short-term market situation will be mainly stable and fluctuating, and in the long run, the market will lack guiding factors and may mainly follow the market trend.