According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, starting from November 18th, negative sentiment has suppressed the palm oil spot market, causing a fluctuating decline with an overall increase of over 3%. On November 18th, the average market price of palm oil was 9664 yuan/ton, and on November 21st, the average market price of palm oil was 9764 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.42% in price.

Negative pressure suppresses the downward trend of domestic palm oil market

On November 18th, the palm oil market weakened and prices continued to decline. This round of palm oil decline is mainly due to the outflow of bullish Malaysian palm oil futures in the external market, resulting in a decline in the market. The domestic palm oil futures market followed suit and the spot market weakened. The average price of palm oil in the domestic market has fallen below 10000 yuan, with a drop of nearly 4% in this round.

Li Bing, a palm oil analyst at Shengyi Society, believes that at the end of November, with the support of rigid demand for oil terminals, the palm oil market will continue to stabilize and stop falling in the future.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on November 20th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12120 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to November 8th. Compared to November 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 12070 yuan/ton), the price increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%; Compared with October 1st (market price of 11960 yuan/ton for silicon metal # 441), the price has increased by 160 yuan/ton, a 1.34% increase.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (11.15-11.20), the overall stable operation of the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has been the main trend. However, due to the recent opening price drop of nearly 800 yuan compared to the beginning of the month for the main futures contracts, the actual trading center of some other grades of silicon metal in the spot market has slightly weakened. As of November 20th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11900-12400 yuan/ton.

Fundamental situation

In terms of construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of domestic silicon metal remains high in the north and low in the south, and the overall construction rate of silicon enterprises in the north remains high. According to incomplete statistics, the overall operating rate in Xinjiang remains stable at around 86% -88%, and the operating rate is still relatively high. The construction rate in the Sichuan Yunnan region is relatively low, with the silicon industry operating at around 48% -49%, maintaining a relatively low level of construction. The operating rate of silicon industry in Sichuan region is around 33% -34%, with a low overall operating rate. Most silicon companies in Sichuan have reduced production or shut down their furnaces. It is heard that some silicon companies still plan to shut down their furnaces later this month, and the operating rate has remained low.

In terms of supply: Currently, there is little change in the overall supply of metallic silicon in China, and most of the silicon in Xinjiang has been pre ordered, with little change in spot supply. Due to the overall low operating rate in Yunnan and Sichuan regions, although there are relatively few new spot orders and overall transaction orders, inventory pressure is not high, and the overall shipping mentality is normal. The market has stable quotes in multiple dimensions.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for metallic silicon is mostly urgent procurement, with replenishment mainly based on quantity, and there is little overall change in the demand side.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic silicon metal market is quiet and mild. With the overall expectation of on-site construction continuing to decline, the pressure on the silicon metal supply side is controllable. Although the transmission performance between supply and demand is still average, it will be able to maintain weak stability. The silicon metal data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be monitored.

Insufficient demand has indeed led to downward pressure on the melamine market. The following is a detailed analysis of this phenomenon:

1、 Market situation

Price decline: Affected by sluggish demand, the market price of melamine continues to decline. For example, in the first half of 2024, the average price of melamine in the domestic market was about 6587 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 5.98%. As of November 19th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6462.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.36% compared to the beginning of this month (6687.50 yuan/ton).

Oversupply: Despite sluggish demand, the production capacity of melamine is constantly increasing. The gradual release of new production capacity by enterprises has led to a significant increase in market supply. At the same time, some melamine plants that were previously shut down due to maintenance have resumed production, further exacerbating the supply pressure on the market.

Inventory backlog: With the increase in supply and insufficient demand, some companies’ inventory begins to accumulate. This not only increases the operating costs of the enterprise, but may also have adverse effects on subsequent production and sales.

2、 Cause analysis

Upstream price decline: The domestic urea market continues to operate steadily with a weak trend, with some manufacturers experiencing a slight decrease in quotes, and the overall market transaction center shifting downwards. The early parking devices have resumed production one after another, and the market supply of goods continues to be loose. However, there is still no significant improvement in demand. Most enterprises have high inventory fluctuations, and price reductions are the main way to attract orders. Currently, the market lacks strong positive support. As of November 19th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1983.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -9.62% compared to the beginning of this month (2195.00 yuan/ton).

Insufficient downstream demand: Downstream industries associated with melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine. The market demand of these downstream industries is an important support for the melamine market, but their insufficient production directly weakens the market demand.

The real estate industry is sluggish: The real estate industry is one of the important application areas of melamine. However, in recent years, the real estate industry has remained sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, resulting in a significant decrease in demand for melamine.

3、 Future prospects

Adjustment of supply and demand relationship: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship of the melamine market is expected to be adjusted in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.

Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.

In summary, insufficient demand is the main reason for the downward pressure on the melamine market. In the future, with the adjustment of market supply and demand and the low operation of prices, enterprises need to adopt active response strategies to cope with market challenges.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since November 11th, long and short positions have been intertwined, and the palm oil spot market has fluctuated and fallen, with an overall decline of nearly 3%. On November 11th, the average market price of palm oil was 10318 yuan/ton, and on November 19th, the average market price of palm oil was 10020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.89% in price.

Long Short Game: Domestic Palm Oil Market oscillates and falls

Since November 11th, the palm oil market has fluctuated with ups and downs, and the overall price has fluctuated downward. This round of palm oil decline is mainly due to Malaysia’s palm oil production being in a production reduction cycle, exports declining, and a long short game. After the rise in the external palm oil futures market, there was a decline, and the domestic palm oil futures market rebounded weakly. The spot market did not rise as much as it fell, with weak declines being the main trend. As of November 19th, the average price of palm oil in the domestic market has fallen to 10020 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 300 yuan/ton, and a drop of over 2% in this round.

Li Bing, a palm oil analyst at Shengyi Society, believes that at the end of November, Malaysia’s palm oil was in a production reduction cycle in the external market, and the domestic demand for oil was peak. It is expected that the palm oil market will rise in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (11.11-11.15), with an average market price of 17350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17200 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.86%.

This week’s market analysis

The price of magnesium ingots continued its downward trend this week, and after a weak operation, the price continued to adjust downwards. The manufacturer has accumulated inventory, sufficient supply, and weak terminal demand. The price of magnesium ingots is under pressure and has loosened downward. Downstream maintains essential procurement, with low transaction volume.

Upstream aspect

The price of Fugu 75 silicon iron remained unchanged from last week. The overall operation of the ferrosilicon market is weak and stable, with average market demand and downstream on-demand procurement, resulting in light actual transactions. The futures market is weak and volatile, and factory quotes have slightly loosened. It is expected that 75% silicon iron will be weak in the short term.

Fugu Blue Charcoal prices are running steadily. The supply of coal in Shaanxi region is relatively tight, with prices rising narrowly. The overall price of blue charcoal is relatively stable, but the operating rate of blue charcoal manufacturers has declined, with only a few companies lowering the prices of small and medium-sized materials and coke. The slight increase in raw material prices provides some cost support for blue charcoal. Considering the slight fluctuations in downstream prices, it is expected that the price of blue charcoal will remain relatively stable in the short term.

comprehensive analysis

The current factory production reduction is not yet significant, and there is a lack of obvious favorable factors to support it. It is expected that the short-term magnesium market will still be difficult to stop falling. Next week, the magnesium market may continue its weak consolidation trend, and we will observe the situation of factory production reduction and demand follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8596 yuan/ton on November 11th, and the average price was 8650 yuan/ton on November 15th, with a price increase of 0.62% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10733 yuan/ton on November 11th, and the average price was 10750 yuan/ton on November 14th, with a price increase of 0.16% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8500 yuan/ton on November 11th, and the average price was 8500 yuan/ton on November 15th, during which the quotation was temporarily stable.

There are many polyethylene parking inspections and a decrease in petrochemical inventory, which puts great pressure on inventory supply and supports the polyethylene market. According to data statistics, as of November 14th, the plastic two barrel oil inventory was 670000 tons, a decrease of 1.47% month on month and 0.74% year-on-year. The demand for greenhouse film has entered the final stage, downstream procurement efforts have decreased, and there is insufficient follow-up on new orders; Macro positive expectations have increased, and the market sentiment is relatively strong, boosting the plastic market.

On November 15th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 8322 yuan and closed at 8289 yuan, up 19 yuan, with a high of 8396 yuan and a low of 8270 yuan, up 0.23%. The recent strong trend of polyethylene futures has boosted the spot market.

The peak season for agricultural film is coming to an end, and the support for polyethylene is weakening. It is expected that the upward space for polyethylene will be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 14th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China is 6750 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6750 yuan/ton on November 8th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 14th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 7000 yuan/ton, which is 0.48% higher than the reference average price of 6966 yuan/ton on November 8th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, the price of hot process phosphoric acid remained stable, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid slightly increased. As of November 14th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6800-7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market has weakened and fallen, and the focus of market transactions has shifted downwards. At present, the market supply is stable, and downstream customers are cautious in purchasing goods and prioritize demand. It is expected that domestic yellow phosphorus prices will stabilize in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the phosphate ore market has remained stable, mainly operating at a high level. At present, local supply is tight and supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This month, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, and the market transaction atmosphere is quiet. At present, the spot supply in the market is still acceptable, downstream demand is stable, and there is a small amount of replenishment. There is currently no significant change in the supply and demand side.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has been operating in a narrow range recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. Market trading is limited, and there are not many new transactions. Short term phosphoric acid market prices are expected to remain stagnant and operate steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the lithium carbonate market has shown an upward trend recently. As of November 13th, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China was 78400 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.08% from 76800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Battery grade lithium carbonate broke through the 80000 yuan mark and rebounded to 81000 yuan/ton, up 2.02% from 79400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The continuous increase in consumption of new energy vehicles drives the installation of batteries

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million respectively, an increase of 48% and 49.6% year-on-year. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.8% of the total new vehicle sales. The installed capacity of power batteries was 59.2GWh, a month on month increase of 8.6% and a year-on-year increase of 51%.

Supply side: domestic and international supply growth easing

Domestically speaking, data shows that in October 2024, the domestic production of lithium carbonate was 59000 tons, a decrease of 3.6% compared to the previous month. The estimated domestic production of lithium carbonate in November is 58900 tons, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous month.

From an international perspective, overseas mining companies have lowered their future production guidelines in their third quarter reports. Mainstream Australian mines have recently released financial reports showing that Liontown plans to lower its ore production target for the end of fiscal year 2027 from 3 million tons per year to 2.8 million tons, with an annual production of 260000 to 295000 tons of SC6 spodumene concentrate; Pilbara plans to put the Ngungaju factory under maintenance starting from December 1, 2024, and lower the production guidance for lithium concentrate in the 2025 fiscal year by 100000 tons to 700000 to 74000 tons.

Under the improvement of marginal effects, lithium carbonate maintained a continuous 10 week destocking trend. Data shows that as of the week of November 8th, the weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 110700 tons, a decrease of 3345 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of the smelting plant was 35800 tons, a decrease of 4701 tons compared to the previous period, and the inventory of the smelting plant was at its lowest point this year.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that although the current improvement in supply has led to a strong trend in lithium carbonate, the expectation of overall oversupply of lithium carbonate in the long run has not changed, and it is expected that prices will maintain a weak and volatile trend. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

Recently, the melamine market has indeed shown a weak trend, which is mainly caused by multiple factors such as fluctuations in raw materials, increased supply, and average demand. As of November 12th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6625.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.93% compared to the beginning of this month (6687.50 yuan/ton).

The following is a detailed analysis of the current weak operation of the melamine market:

1、 Raw material oscillation

One of the main raw materials for producing melamine is urea, and its price fluctuations directly affect the production cost and market price of melamine. In the first half of 2024, domestic coal supply is abundant, downstream daily consumption recovery is slow, and coal inventory is high, leading to a continuous downward shift in coal prices and a reduction in urea production costs. This cost reduction provides some room for a decrease in urea prices, which in turn affects the raw material cost of melamine. However, the reduction in raw material costs did not effectively boost the market demand for melamine, but instead exacerbated the weak operating situation of the market due to oversupply. As of November 12th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 2188.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.28% compared to the beginning of this month (2195.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Supply increase

New production capacity deployment: Recently, multiple melamine plants have been put into operation or planned to be put into operation, which directly leads to a significant increase in market supply.

Restoration of Maintenance Equipment: Some melamine units that were previously shut down due to maintenance have resumed production, further increasing market supply. These devices for resuming production have made the already oversupplied market even more severe.

3、 General demand

Insufficient production in downstream industries: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in production load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine. The market demand of these downstream industries is an important support for the melamine market, but their insufficient production directly weakens the market demand.

Reduced procurement demand: Due to increased supply and insufficient demand, downstream manufacturers and traders have reduced their procurement demand for melamine. This further exacerbates the weak operating situation of the market, leading to a downward trend in the price of melamine in the market.

4、 Market Impact and Future Prospects

Market price decline: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. Although prices have fluctuated during certain periods, overall the market price center is gradually shifting downwards.

Prominent supply-demand contradiction: With the gradual release of new production capacity and the sustained weakness of downstream industry demand, the supply-demand contradiction in the melamine market will become even more prominent. This may lead to continued pressure on market prices and face greater downward pressure.

Future trend judgment: It is expected that the market price of melamine will remain low for a period of time in the future. However, the specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships. Enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships to flexibly respond to market challenges and seek development opportunities.

In summary, multiple factors such as fluctuations in raw materials, increased supply, and average demand have collectively led to the current weak operating situation of the melamine market. The future market trend will be influenced by various factors, including the deployment of new production capacity, the recovery of downstream industry demand, and changes in raw material costs.

On November 12th, the average market price in East China was 257410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 256250-258250 yuan/ton, with an average price of 257250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

Shanghai tin fluctuated and fell in the morning session, with tin prices in the spot market slightly decreasing in the morning, and the decline in the market widened in the second trading session. At the close of the 12th, the main contract of Shanghai Wuxi 2412 closed down 1.92%.

The fundamental changes are not significant, and tin ingot production remains stable. Terminal consumption slowed down in November, and tin ingot inventory turned into accumulated inventory. Price fluctuations, refinery prices are high, and transactions are average. The sentiment in the spot market is cautious, with a focus on essential purchases. The actual demand growth downstream is lower than expected, and except for essential purchases, other buyers are waiting for further price reductions. In addition, domestic refined tin production has slightly increased, and production will remain stable in the short term. Today’s follow-up, I heard that Xiaopai has a discount of 300 to 100 yuan/ton for December, Yunzi Tou has a discount of around 100-500 yuan/ton for December, and Yunxi has a discount of around 500-800 yuan/ton for December.