This week (12.14-12.20), the nickel market experienced a downward expansion. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, spot nickel was reported at 124608 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 4.62%.

Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the target range of the federal funds rate to between 4.25% and 4.50%, and expects the rate cut to narrow to 50 basis points by 2025. The scheduled interest rate cut is in line with expectations, and the pace of interest rate cuts will be slowed down next year, causing the US dollar to rise to a two-year high and bearish on the metal market.

On the supply side: According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, there is a cumulative surplus of 114100 tons of refined nickel in 2024. Shanghai nickel and London nickel inventories are under pressure, with a significant decrease in inventory during the week. As of December 20th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 29227 tons, a decrease of 1337 tons during the week; The qualified quantity for delivery is 35390 tons, with an increase of 706 tons within the week. On December 20th, LME nickel inventory was 161436 tons, a decrease of 3072 tons during the week.

On the demand side: The stainless steel market continues to weaken, with low willingness to reduce production and high output. Downstream demand for low-priced goods is being replenished as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish. As of December 20th, the reference price for stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% from the beginning of the month. The demand for electroplating and alloys remains stable.

Market forecast: Weak demand, inventory pressure, hindered upward movement of nickel prices, continued pattern of strong supply and weak demand, attention to macroeconomic policies, expected short-term fluctuations in nickel prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on December 19th was 823 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to the average price of 813 yuan/ton on December 13th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has been steadily rising. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, and the operating rate of domestic enterprises remains at a high level. This week, downstream enterprises made on-demand purchases, with an increase in inquiries compared to last week and an increase in market trading volume. The bidding price for coking grade ammonium sulfate has slightly increased, while the price for domestic grade ammonium sulfate has slightly increased. As of December 19th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 765 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 820-860 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been trending upwards recently. At present, the market trading direction is good, with a focus on low-priced restocking. Domestic and international demand still needs to be improved. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will experience a narrow consolidation and operation in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke continued to rise in December. As of December 17th, the price of locally refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1673.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.62% from 1540.25 yuan/ton on December 1st.

Cost aspect: Recently, crude oil prices have risen overall, mainly due to the potential supply risks in the Middle East caused by the turmoil in Syria, coupled with improved economic and demand prospects in Asia.

Supply side: Recently, the shipment of refined petroleum coke has been active, and the inventory of petroleum coke is low. The market supply is relatively tight, and downstream companies have actively entered the market to push up the price of petroleum coke. In the near future, imported petroleum coke ports will gradually arrive. Currently, the price of imported petroleum coke continues to rise, the speed of port shipments is good, inventory is declining, and market inquiries are increasing.

On the demand side: Currently, the spot market for silicon metal is experiencing a downward trend. On the one hand, recently, the market for silicon metal futures has continuously fallen to market lows, intensifying the negative impact of futures on the spot market. On the other hand, with the arrival of winter, a situation of weak production and demand in the metal silicon market is gradually forming, and the overall operating rate of the metal silicon market continues to decline, resulting in a decrease in the expected production of metal silicon; The overall operating rate of the downstream polycrystalline silicon market remained unchanged compared to last week, but the monthly operating rate has decreased by about 25%. The operating rate of downstream enterprises has decreased, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials. Currently, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market of silicon metal, with a lack of enthusiasm for new order purchases. The market is dominated by low-priced transactions, and the overall supply and demand transmission in the silicon metal market is weak. The demand for high sulfur pellet coke in the silicon carbide industry and the southern fuel market still exists, but some domestic refineries have stopped supplying petroleum coke to the silicon carbide market, and currently mainly purchase imported pellet coke.

Recently, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke has continued to rise with good transactions, mainly due to the continuous rise in the raw material petroleum coke market, as well as the slight reduction in production by some enterprises in Hebei due to environmental protection policies, resulting in a slight decrease in market supply.

Recently, the electrolytic aluminum market has fallen, and downstream customers for aluminum entered a low demand season in December. After the cancellation of export tax rebate policies, the operating rate of aluminum factories has declined, and the supply and demand in domestic and foreign markets have weakened. The aluminum market has also declined, with downstream aluminum using carbon as the main demand for petroleum coke market.

Market forecast: Currently, downstream negative electrode and carbon enterprises’ procurement of petroleum coke is still acceptable, which supports the market situation of petroleum coke. In addition, the current low inventory of local refineries is expected to lead to a narrow rise in petroleum coke prices in the near future.

This week, the overall price of melamine showed a stable trend, although there were slight fluctuations, there was no significant increase or decrease. As of December 17th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6405.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.23% compared to the beginning of this month (6420.00 yuan/ton).

1、 Market situation

In the second half of 2024, the overall utilization rate of melamine production capacity was lower than that of the first half of the year, especially in mid October when the weekly production capacity rate of melamine fell to the low point of the second half of the year, which was the second low point of the year after the low point in mid July. Although there was a brief increase in capacity utilization due to the restoration of maintenance facilities, it subsequently declined again due to the shutdown and maintenance of some facilities.

2、 The impact of low capacity utilization on prices

1. Imbalance between supply and demand:

Low capacity utilization means insufficient production, but at the same time, due to sluggish downstream demand, this supply-demand imbalance has not led to price increases.

Especially in the sustained downturn of the real estate industry, downstream enterprises associated with it have low operating rates and overall insufficient demand, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

2. Intense market competition:

In the case of low capacity utilization, in order to maintain market share and sales revenue, enterprises may adopt a price reduction strategy to attract customers. This will lead to a further decline in market prices, making it difficult to recover.

3. Cost pressure:

Although low capacity utilization may reduce the allocation of fixed costs for enterprises, variable costs such as raw material costs and labor costs still exist. If companies are unable to cover these costs by raising prices, their profit margins will be further compressed.

3、 Prediction of Price Recovery Time

Due to the interweaving of various factors, it is difficult to accurately predict the rebound time of melamine prices. However, considerations can be made from the following aspects:

Improvement of supply-demand relationship: As downstream demand gradually recovers and new production capacity is effectively controlled, the supply-demand relationship will gradually become balanced, thereby driving up prices.

Rising raw material costs: If the price of raw material urea rises, it will increase the production cost of melamine, thereby providing support for market prices.

Increased export demand: With the recovery of the global economy and the increase in export demand, the export volume of melamine is expected to further increase, thereby driving up domestic prices.

4、 Future prospects

Fluctuations in raw material prices: There may still be some volatility in the future raw material urea market, which will have an impact on the production costs and prices of the melamine market. Enterprises need to closely monitor the dynamics of the raw material market and develop reasonable procurement and production plans.

Downstream demand changes: With the continuous development of the economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, the demand for melamine in downstream industries may show a new growth trend. Enterprises need to pay attention to changes in downstream demand and adjust their product structure and sales strategies in a timely manner.

Strengthening international cooperation: Enterprises should actively seek opportunities for international cooperation, expand overseas markets, and increase export volume. This can not only alleviate the supply and demand pressure in the domestic market, but also enhance the international visibility and brand influence of the enterprise.

In summary, low capacity utilization is one of the important factors currently restricting the recovery of melamine prices. In order to drive up prices and enhance the profitability of enterprises, they should closely monitor changes in downstream demand, optimize production capacity structure, and strengthen international cooperation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PET market price has slightly increased today. As of December 17th, its average market price is 6162 yuan per ton.

International oil prices have continued to rise, with strong cost support and a significant increase in polyester raw material prices. Driven by costs, today’s PET spot market prices have also risen. However, considering the approaching end of the month, some holders may face pressure to store and ship, which may limit the upward trend of PET.

Overall, the PET market prices may continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment, demand situation, and cost support under the traction of crude oil.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on December 16th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 11860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan/ton or 1.74% compared to December 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 12070 yuan/ton).

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early December, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 showed an overall weak downward trend, with market prices approaching low levels. Recently (12.13-12.16), the spot market for silicon metal continued to decline, with many regions in China including silicon metal grades # 553, 552, 441, 421, etc. experiencing a downward adjustment. Among them, the market price of silicon metal 553 # (oxygen) in East China decreased to 11300-11400 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton. The market price of silicon metal 441 # in East China decreased to 11700-11900 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton. The market price of silicon metal 421 # in Guangdong decreased to 11535-11585 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 120 yuan/ton. As of December 16th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11500-12200 yuan/ton.

Recently, the spot market for silicon metal has been experiencing a downward trend. On the one hand, recently, the market for silicon metal futures has continuously fallen to market lows, intensifying the negative impact of futures on the spot market. On the other hand, as winter approaches, a weak supply-demand situation is gradually forming in the metal silicon market. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of the metal silicon market continues to decline, and the expected production of metal silicon is reduced. On the demand side, the overall operating rate of the downstream polycrystalline silicon market remained unchanged compared to last week, but the monthly operating rate decreased slightly by about 25%. The operating rate of downstream enterprises has decreased, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials. Currently, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market of silicon metal, with a lack of enthusiasm for new order purchases. The market is dominated by low-priced transactions, and the overall supply and demand transmission in the silicon metal market is weak.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light, and the market continues to decline with strong market sentiment. The weak downstream demand affects the confidence of industry players. Although the market has lowered production, there is still some pressure to ship in some areas. The current market lacks positive support as a whole. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market is mainly weak and consolidating, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

Analysis: This week (12-9-12), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong has not yet escaped the downward channel, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.32%. The main reason for the increase in supply pressure is that the maintenance equipment in the early stage has been gradually restored, and the operating rate of manufacturers has increased. Coupled with the sluggish urea market, some manufacturers have switched to ammonia, which has further exacerbated the contradiction of oversupply in the ammonia market. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2600-2750 yuan/ton.

Prediction: Due to seasonal reasons, fertilizer procurement is off-season, downstream operating rates have significantly decreased, industrial demand has followed suit, supply is sufficient, and later supply pressure may not be resolved for a long time. But the imagination of regional differentiation in the later stage of the market may become increasingly prominent. On the one hand, the operating rate will decline with the decrease of prices. On the other hand, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other places may put pressure on transportation, and there may be a shortage of local supply. Considering all factors, the price of liquid ammonia may still be difficult to improve next week, but some regions may stop falling and stabilize. Local differentiation may bring about price fluctuations.

Since the beginning of this week, the domestic PTA spot market has seen a slight upward trend, with relatively strong raw materials boosting PTA prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 12th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4734 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% from the beginning of the week.

Although OPEC has lowered its global demand forecast for five consecutive months in its monthly report, the decrease in US crude oil inventories has been offset by an increase in refined oil inventories. However, China’s boost to the economy may increase oil demand, and European and American crude oil futures have risen for the third consecutive day. As of December 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.52 per barrel.

Self supplied, the 1.1 million ton PTA plant of Zhuhai Ineos underwent maintenance for over 20 days in early December. The total production capacity of PTA at Jiaxing Petrochemical is 3.7 million tons per year, of which the 1 # 1.5 million ton units underwent maintenance on December 12th, and the restart time is yet to be determined. The supply has slightly decreased, and the PTA industry is operating at around 88%.

The trading atmosphere for cold resistant fabrics at downstream textile terminals is still good, and the atmosphere for inquiries about some spring orders is good. Intermediaries and traders only stock up on demand, and the delivery of domestic and foreign trade orders is coming to an end. As of December 11th, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is less than 69%.

Looking ahead, crude oil prices have risen to their highest point of the week, providing stronger support for PTA costs. Under partial device maintenance, domestic PTA supply remains high. We are concerned about the progress of Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million ton PTA new device scheduled to start production in mid December next week. With the impact of the off-season consumption, it is expected that the downstream transaction atmosphere will further weaken, and there is an expectation of weakened demand. Overall, without sustained positive drivers, PTA prices will fluctuate weakly and adjust in the short term.

The price of melamine has fluctuated slightly this week, but the overall trend remains stable. On December 11th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6412.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.12% compared to the beginning of this month (6420.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Price Trend Analysis

From the above data, it can be seen that the overall price of melamine has shown a stable trend this week, although there have been slight fluctuations, there has not been a significant increase or decrease.

1. Market supply-demand balance: Currently, the supply and demand in the melamine market are relatively balanced, and the deployment of new production capacity has maintained a certain degree of matching with downstream demand growth, thereby slowing down the direct impact of raw material price fluctuations on the melamine market.

2. Inventory adjustment: Some melamine production enterprises may adjust their inventory to cope with fluctuations in raw material prices, thereby stabilizing market prices to a certain extent.

3. Stable production capacity: During this week, the production capacity of the melamine industry remained relatively stable, with no large-scale increase or decrease in production, which helps maintain the smooth operation of the market.

4. Stable downstream demand: The demand for melamine in downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings remained stable this week, without significant growth or decline, which to some extent supported the stable operation of the melamine market.

3、 Future market outlook

Although the melamine market remained stable this week, there is still some uncertainty in the future market trend. Here are some prospects for the future market:

1. Fluctuations in raw material prices: There may still be some volatility in the future raw material urea market, which will have an impact on the production costs and prices of the melamine market. Enterprises need to closely monitor the dynamics of the raw material market and develop reasonable procurement and production plans.

2. Changes in downstream demand: With the continuous development of the economy and the improvement of people’s living standards, the demand for melamine in downstream industries may show a new growth trend. Enterprises need to pay attention to changes in downstream demand and adjust their product structure and sales strategies in a timely manner.

In summary, the melamine market remained stable this week against the backdrop of fluctuations in raw material urea, mainly due to factors such as market supply and demand balance, inventory regulation, and policy regulation. Future enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, and develop reasonable business strategies to cope with potential market risks.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was mainly consolidated in early December, with some brand products experiencing price increases. As of December 10th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7641.67 yuan/ton, a rise or fall of+0.27% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the previous oil prices were affected by various factors such as the US election, resulting in low prices. Currently, the bearish effect has weakened, and the positive impact of the OPEC+production reduction plan delay is still present. International oil prices have rebounded from the decline, strengthening support for PP’s upstream in the far end. In terms of propylene, local areas such as North China have tight supply, while downstream operating rates have rebounded. Supported by this, propane has shown a stable but slightly upward trend in the past ten days. PDH has been operating steadily due to the overall low inventory in the industry. Overall, in early December, PP raw materials remained stable with small increases, and the cost support was still acceptable.

Supply side:

In early December, domestic PP enterprises experienced a combination of maintenance and production, and the overall load level continued the stable trend of the previous period. Overall, the industry’s overall load has only decreased by 1% from around 75% at the beginning of the month. The domestic PP shipment volume is flat, and the inventory level is around 650000 tons. Although the supply is still abundant, some new production facilities have been delayed, supporting the mentality of some operators. Overall, the supply side provides average support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

At present, the demand side of PP tends towards rigid demand. Due to seasonal factors, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remained stable with a slight decrease during the first ten days. The consumption level of plastic weaving has also declined narrowly, and the willingness to hold positions has cooled down; As the end of the year approaches, the decline in enterprise construction and stocking up are intertwined. The release of demand for partial pre holiday replenishment has to some extent boosted consumption. Overall, the demand side tends to have weak fluctuations in most aspects.

Future forecast

In early December, the domestic PP market prices saw a narrow upward trend. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The supply within the range has leveled off, but some of the equipment put into production has been delayed to boost the confidence of regular operators. According to consumer feedback, businesses are cautious about future terminal consumption, and there is a risk of further contraction in subsequent orders. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stagnant.