On October 23rd, the cobalt price was 242700 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 8.03% compared to the cobalt price of 263900 yuan/ton on October 1st. In October 2026, the cobalt market as a whole showed a weak downward trend with an accelerated shift in focus. At the beginning of the month, the market was still at a stalemate around 255000 yuan/ton, but the downward trend accelerated significantly afterwards. By the end of the month, the price of electrolytic cobalt had fallen below 243000 yuan/ton, falling below the expected lower limit of cobalt prices in the market.
MB cobalt price drops
In October, the international cobalt price of MB followed the decline of domestic spot prices, gradually declining after reaching a high at the beginning of the month, and the linkage between domestic and foreign markets weakened. LME cobalt futures closed at $36815/ton on October 16th, a daily drop of $2530; The continuous futures of Lunco closed at 36380 yuan/ton on the same day, a decrease of 6.48% from the previous settlement price. The overseas cobalt prices have plummeted, and the domestic cobalt market is bearish.
Cobalt salt varieties all fall, cobalt costs collapse
Cobalt salts and oxides weaken synchronously. Cobalt sulfate fell from 57000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 52000 yuan/ton on October 19th, with a weekly decline of 5.3%; Cobalt chloride has dropped from 69000 yuan/ton to 64000 yuan/ton; Cobalt trioxide fell from 225000 yuan/ton to 210000 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 6.7%.
On the raw material side, due to the concentration of goods in transit from the Democratic Republic of Congo to ports, the continuous increase in MHP in Indonesia, and the enhanced substitution of primary cobalt by domestic recycled cobalt, the MHP (mixed hydroxide precipitation) cobalt coefficient has continued to decline. The discount coefficient for individual orders has fallen below 60% by the end of September and further decreased to 60.5% by October 16th; The CIF price for cobalt intermediate products in China is $14 per pound, and the processing fee for intermediate products has dropped to 29300 yuan per metal ton, causing the cost of metallic cobalt to collapse.
Demand side: structural contraction coupled with sluggish peak season
According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of installed capacity, in September, the domestic installed capacity of power batteries was 87.2 GWh, a month on month increase of 10.4% and a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 12.3GWh, accounting for 14.1% of the total installed capacity, a month on month increase of 11.7%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%; The share of the ternary route continues to be squeezed; 3C consumer electronics is also sluggish, with global smartphone shipments declining by about 20% year-on-year in the third quarter, hitting a new low for the same period since 2012. Downstream lithium cobalt oxide enterprises mainly focus on digesting their own inventory, and the expectation of centralized replenishment after the holiday has fallen through. Transactions of cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride are extremely light, and some smelting enterprises have even suspended quotations.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Analysts believe that the cost decline and weak demand in the cobalt market in October have mutually reinforced each other, forming a negative feedback loop in the cobalt industry chain: “price reduction loss raw material follow-up cost further reduction”. The decline in cobalt prices has dragged down the expected cost of cobalt salts, and the weakening of cobalt salts has in turn suppressed the bottom of cobalt batteries. The industry chain has entered a cycle of passive destocking and price reductions from top to bottom.

The core narrative of the cobalt market in October is that cost collapse opened up downward space for prices, weak demand determined a lack of upward support for prices, and the short-term failure of quota expectations in the Democratic Republic of Congo drained the last potential bullish pivot. In the future, the stabilization of cobalt prices is more likely to come from passive supply contraction rather than active demand recovery. The signal of cobalt price increase in the future is weak, and the focus is on the supply side policies of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

From October 8 to 16, 2026, the domestic No. 1 antimony ingot market experienced a significant decline. The average price at the beginning of the month was 103,750 yuan per ton, while the average price on the 16th dropped to 93,750 yuan per ton, marking a cumulative decrease of 9.64%.
After the National Day holiday, the domestic antimony ingot market showed a trend of initially holding firm at high levels before fluctuating downward. In the early period, the market maintained a high-level consolidation, with smelters demonstrating strong price support intentions. However, post-holiday downstream stockpiling fell short of expectations, while terminal buyers’ wait-and-see sentiment intensified, leading to persistently weak transactions. Sellers gradually faced offloading pressure, and prices began declining continuously from midweek. On the supply side, tight raw material availability provided cost support, while weak downstream demand fulfillment dragged down spot prices. The tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces intensified, resulting in overall sluggish trading. The market transitioned from previous high-level fluctuations to a weaker performance.
Supply side:
In this cycle, the domestic antimony ingot raw material market remained generally tight. Domestic antimony mining operations were strictly controlled, resulting in overall tight supplies of antimony concentrate. Mine production growth was limited, and the price of 50% antimony concentrate declined in tandem with antimony ingots. However, low inventory levels at the mine end showed no significant improvement, keeping the procurement costs of smelting raw materials at high levels, which provided bottom support for antimony ingot prices. The production capacity of major domestic smelters remained stable, with no concentrated resumption of operations or significant production cuts. The total spot circulation volume was limited, and overall social inventory levels remained relatively low.
Initially, smelters were relatively strong in maintaining prices and reluctant to sell at low levels. However, as downstream demand remained sluggish with delayed restocking, some suppliers gradually softened their offers to recoup funds, leading to a slight increase in spot market liquidity. Overall, tight constraints on raw material supply limited the downward space for antimony ingots, though the smelters’ ability to sustain prices weakened amid weak demand.
Demand side:
In traditional downstream applications, antimony accounts for approximately 55% in flame retardant materials and about 15% in glass. Antimony is an indispensable and irreplaceable element in the production of photovoltaic glass. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the primary growth in antimony metal demand will be in the photovoltaic sector. During this cycle, downstream demand for antimony ingots is primarily driven by rigid requirements, while the expectation of concentrated procurement during peak seasons has not materialized. Downstream enterprises generally adopt a just-in-time approach, with limited willingness to stockpile large quantities, resulting in overall weaker demand.
Antimony oxide: As the largest traditional downstream application of antimony ingots, antimony oxide is primarily used in flame-retardant materials. In this cycle, the flame-retardant products industry maintained stable operations but showed no significant improvement. Antimony oxide plants maintained procurement based on basic demand. During the decline in antimony ingot prices, downstream flame-retardant enterprises still avoided high-price risks and purchased at lower prices, with orders mainly consisting of short-term and small-volume contracts. Antimony oxide plants did not actively stockpile, and antimony ingot consumption remained limited, dragging down spot transactions of antimony ingots.
Photovoltaics: Photovoltaic glass is a long-term core incremental area for antimony ingots. The long-term logic of industry capacity expansion remains unchanged, but in this cycle, photovoltaic glass manufacturers have been relatively cautious in their procurement pace, with no concentrated restocking. Glass plants primarily rely on depleting existing inventory, purchasing small batches as needed without a significant increase in procurement volume. This results in insufficient short-term demand for antimony ingots, with expectations that only sustained medium-to-long-term capacity expansion will support antimony demand.
Market Outlook:

In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market will continue to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. On the negative side, there is currently no centralized replenishment plan for downstream photovoltaic and antimony oxide sectors, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the terminal is difficult to quickly dissipate in the short term. The weak spot trading will continue to suppress the price of antimony ingots. Positive support comes from tight supply of antimony concentrate, low overall inventory in the industry, bottoming out of smelting costs, and limited room for deep decline in antimony ingots. Two key points to focus on in the future market are: first, changes in the start of production and replenishment actions in the antimony oxide flame retardant industry; The second is the pace of raw material procurement for photovoltaic glass enterprises. If downstream centralized replenishment is released in the future, there is a chance for antimony ingots to rebound; If the demand continues to maintain a weak and rigid demand state, antimony ingots will continue to oscillate at a low level. In the medium to long term, the supply constraints of antimony ore resources still exist, and the continuous expansion of photovoltaic production brings about an increase in demand. The antimony price operation center has long-term upward potential.

Market Overview
This week, the domestic propylene market surged significantly after the holiday and then turned into a high-level consolidation. On October 15th, the benchmark price of propylene was 10701.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.23% from 9707.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month.
Fundamental analysis
（1） Supply side: Device maintenance brings reduction, and spot circulation is tight
This week, the domestic supply of propylene commodities remained relatively tight. Some domestic refineries and propane dehydrogenation units have entered the maintenance cycle, and the export volume of commercial propylene has shrunk. The market circulation of goods is limited, and production enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. Although some maintenance equipment is planned to resume production in the near future, the pace of capacity release is slow, making it difficult to quickly make up for the shortage of goods in the short term, and spot supply support still exists.
（2） On the demand side: downstream synchronous rise, mainly supported by essential needs
On October 15th, the benchmark price for PP (wire drawing) was 10656.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.28% compared to the beginning of this month (9933.33 yuan/ton).
On October 15th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin was 11600.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.41% compared to the beginning of this month (10800.00 yuan/ton).
The two core downstream products, brushed PP and epoxy propane, have risen synchronously with the increase in propylene raw material prices. Downstream factories are stocking up at a low level before the holiday, maintaining essential purchases during the period of raw material price increases, and orders provide support for spot transactions. However, the continuous increase in raw material prices has compressed the profit margins of downstream production. Downstream consumers are cautious in pursuing higher prices and mainly rely on on-demand procurement, lacking large-scale hoarding actions. There is no explosive increase in procurement on the demand side.
（3） Macro and International Situation
International crude oil is fluctuating at a high level due to geopolitical disturbances, and the cost side indirectly supports propylene. The operating rate of overseas olefin plants fluctuates, the increase in propylene import sources is limited, and the external supply impact is not significant. The international situation still remains uncertain, and if there is a significant fluctuation in crude oil prices, it will have a transmission impact on the sentiment of the domestic chemical market.
4、 Market analysis and judgment
In the short term, the domestic supply and demand pattern of propylene is still tight, and the bullish structure of the moving average has not been disrupted. The price of propylene is likely to maintain a high and volatile operation. Focus on tracking three major variables in the future:
One is the progress of resuming production of maintenance equipment, and the restoration of supply will gradually alleviate the tight supply situation; The second is the profitability level of downstream products such as PP and epichlorohydrin. If downstream products continue to suffer losses, it may suppress the demand for raw material procurement; The third is the market sentiment transmission caused by fluctuations in international crude oil prices. Overall, it is difficult to quickly reverse the short-term high level pattern of propylene, but further significant upward momentum will weaken, and the market is likely to enter a high-level oscillation consolidation.

1、 This week’s market review: prices stabilize at high levels after a tiered rise
This week, the acrylic acid market has shown a clear upward trend in a stepped manner. As of October 14th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 8966.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.67% compared to the beginning of this month (8566.67 yuan/ton).
2、 Core driver: Strong cost push, supporting the price increase of acrylic acid
The core logic behind the upward trend of acrylic acid this week lies in the strong boost from the cost side.
Data shows that on October 14th, the benchmark price of propylene (upstream raw material) was 10701.00 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 10.23% compared to the beginning of this month (9707.67 yuan/ton).
The significant increase in the price of raw material propylene has significantly raised the production cost of acrylic acid. Under the pressure of cost, acrylic acid production enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, and their offers follow suit, resulting in a rapid decrease in low-priced supply in the market.
Future prospects
Overall, the current acrylic acid market is in a dual positive stage of “strong cost support+technological breakthroughs”. In the short term, if the upstream propylene price remains high, the acrylic acid market will continue to maintain a high price trend.

1、 Market Overview
This week, the domestic melamine market first stabilized, then surged and fell back, showing an overall weak fluctuation pattern. As of October 13th, the benchmark price of urea was 1757.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the beginning of this month (1780.00 yuan/ton).
The raw material side urea weakened synchronously. As of October 13th, the benchmark price of urea was 1757.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the beginning of this month (1780.00 yuan/ton), indicating a loosening of cost support.
2、 Technical analysis
From the perspective of moving average system and price percentile:
1. Moving average trend: The spot price of melamine has been running above the 10 day moving average for a long time in the early part of this week. The 10 day moving average continues to be higher than the 20 day moving average, and the moving average remains positive. In the short term, it has bullish momentum, which drives the price to briefly rise; On October 11th, the price surged and peaked before quickly falling back. On October 12th, the spot price fell below the 10 day moving average and approached the 20 day moving average, indicating a short-term downward trend of the moving average and releasing a short-term adjustment signal. The 10 day moving average has turned flat, while the 20 day moving average still maintains a slow upward trend, and the support for the medium and long-term moving averages has not been completely destroyed.
2. Price range: On October 12th, the price was at a low level during the 10 day cycle, and remained in the mid to high range during the 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, and 90 day cycles; The one-year dimension is at a medium low level. This indicates a rapid short-term price pullback, but in the medium to long term, the market is still in a relatively high range, and the short-term rapid pullback belongs to the recovery of a pullback after a high-level oscillation.
3、 Fundamental Logic
supply side
Domestic melamine enterprises have maintained relatively stable production, with sufficient overall supply of goods. During the initial price stabilization phase, factory shipments were normal. However, after the price surge, downstream buyers showed insufficient willingness to take on orders, resulting in weak factory price support and a subsequent decline in prices. The downward trend in raw material urea prices has to some extent eased the cost pressure on production enterprises, but also weakened the upward support on the product cost side.
Demand side
Downstream industries such as sheet metal and impregnated paper have limited post holiday stocking efforts, with a focus on essential procurement and weak willingness to chase after high demand. After a brief surge this week, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has heated up, and there is insufficient follow-up on large transactions, making it difficult to sustain price support, which is the core reason for this round of surge and decline.
4、 Market analysis and judgment
The short-term melamine market may continue to fluctuate weakly. On the technical side, there is a warning signal that the moving average has crossed below, and there is a possibility of continued pressure in the short term; The raw material urea market is weak, and cost support is weakened. There is currently no clear expectation of a rebound in downstream demand, and high prices are suppressing terminal procurement.
If the subsequent price continues to fall below the support of the 20 day moving average, the downward pressure on the market will be further amplified; If the 20 day moving average effectively supports the bottom, the market is likely to maintain range oscillation. Follow up will focus on tracking changes in urea raw material prices, downstream sheet industry operating rates, and factory inventory changes.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 9390 yuan/ton on October 1st and 9950 yuan/ton on October 13th, an increase of 5.96%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 12133 yuan/ton on October 1st and 12733 yuan/ton on October 13th, an increase of 4.95%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 10475 yuan/ton on October 1st and 11087 yuan/ton on October 13th, accounting for 5.85%.
Geopolitical factors support high crude oil prices, and the external market for ethylene is relatively strong, providing cost support for PE. The continuous compression of profits in oil refining and chemical industry has hindered the upward transmission of costs, making it difficult to drive the market to soar alone.
Domestic PE production remains at a moderate level, with maintenance facilities gradually restarting and production gradually recovering. New production capacity continues to be released, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter has increased month on month. After the holiday, the social inventory has slightly accumulated, but the overall inventory is still low, which provides support for spot goods in the short term.
The current agricultural film has entered the traditional peak season, and the release of orders for greenhouse film and mulching film has mainly driven the formation of polyethylene. Packaging and hollow products have slightly rebounded, but there has been limited improvement in areas such as pipes and injection molding. Downstream consumers are resistant to high priced raw materials, mostly due to immediate demand and weak willingness to actively stockpile, resulting in limited support during peak seasons.
After the holiday, PE quickly rose and is likely to enter a high volatility in the short term. The support for the peak season of agricultural film is gradually weakening, coupled with the release of new production capacity, and there is insufficient motivation to continue the significant increase. If there is no significant increase in crude oil prices in the future, there is a risk of the price center falling back.

After the National Day holiday, the acrylonitrile market price fluctuated upwards due to strong cost push. As of October 9th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market has remained firm at around 11000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream negotiated price for delivery in the Shandong market has gradually rebounded from the price reduction trend during the holiday period to around 10800 yuan/ton at present.
Loose supply:
During the week, Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its production capacity to 90%, and at the same time, Sinopec Tianjin’s 130000 tons/year plant was successfully put into operation and included in the total production capacity. The total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity base reached 5.709 million tons/year, and the overall supply significantly increased. According to statistics, this week (October 2-8), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 75.30%, an increase of 2.46% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 89900 tons, which is+0.49 million tons compared to the previous cycle. During the week, there was an increase in supply, and at the same time, partial shipments during the holidays were slow, leading to an increase in inventory for some companies. On October 8th, the total inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China was about 45000 tons, an increase of+45000 tons from last week.
Average demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has seen limited improvement, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 55.2%, an increase of 0.1% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 70.38%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 55.4%, an increase of 0.74% compared to last week.
Cost increase:
After the holiday, the prices of propylene and synthetic ammonia, the main raw materials, have risen sharply. Therefore, although the price of acrylonitrile has shown a trend of following the rise, the increase is still less than that of raw materials, resulting in the current situation of single product production losses gradually worsening. According to statistics, as of October 8th, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market was 9980-10170 yuan/ton, with an average price of 10075 yuan/ton; The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 12699 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 3.80%; The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -1598 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -465 yuan/ton.
Post production forecast: Currently, there is ongoing pressure on the cost side, with suppliers continuing to raise prices and spot prices rising. The capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry remains at 73.7%. This market stage rebound is mainly driven by the cost side, and production enterprises are currently experiencing increased losses. There is a strong intention to raise prices. However, there is a lack of significant incremental expectations on the demand side in the short term, especially in the ABS industry, which continues to operate at low loads. The supply-demand relationship is still weak and will continue to suppress market rebound space. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side.

Following the National Day holiday, the market price of acrylonitrile fluctuated upward due to strong cost-push factors. By October 9, the mainstream negotiated price for off-site self-pickup in the East China market remained firm at around 11,000 yuan per ton, while the mainstream negotiated price for regional delivery in the Shandong market gradually rebounded from the downward trend during the holiday period, currently hovering near 10,800 yuan per ton.
Supply is ample:
During the week, Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its operating load to 90%, while the annual capacity of 130,000 tons at Sinopec Tianjin was successfully put into production, contributing to the total domestic acrylonitrile capacity. The overall domestic acrylonitrile production capacity reached 5.709 million tons annually, with a significant increase in supply. According to statistics, the domestic acrylonitrile industry’s production capacity utilization rate reached 75.30% this week (October 2-8), up 2.46% from the previous week; weekly production was approximately 89,900 tons, an increase of 490 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly supply increment, coupled with slower local shipments during the holiday period, led to rising inventories at some enterprises. On October 8, the total domestic acrylonitrile factory inventory was around 45,000 tons, up 4,500 tons from the previous week.
Average demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rates of major downstream industries showed limited improvement. ABS utilization stood at 55.2%, up 0.1% from the previous week; acrylic fiber producers maintained a utilization rate of 70.38%, unchanged from last week; and acrylamide capacity utilization reached 55.4%, increasing by 0.74% compared to the prior week.
Cost increase:
After the holiday, the prices of major raw materials—propylene and synthetic ammonia—rose significantly. As a result, although the price of acrylonitrile has shown an upward trend, the increase is still lower than that of the raw materials, leading to a gradual worsening of single-product production losses. According to statistics, as of October 8, the mainstream closing price of propylene in Shandong was 9,980-10,170 yuan/ton, with an average of 10,075 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 12,699 yuan/ton, up 3.80% month-on-month. During the same period, the average production profit of acrylonitrile was -1,598 yuan/ton, down 465 yuan/ton month-on-month.
Posterior Forecast: The cost pressure persists, with suppliers maintaining firm prices and spot prices rising. The acrylonitrile industry’s capacity utilization rate remains at 73.7%. This market rebound is primarily driven by cost factors, as producers face worsening losses and strong price-holding intentions. However, there is no significant near-term demand growth expected, particularly as the ABS industry continues to operate at low loads. The supply-demand imbalance remains weak, which will still constrain the market’s rebound potential. Supply-side developments warrant close attention.

On October 10, 2026, the domestic market price reference for silicon metal # 441 was 9510 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.11% compared to October 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9500 yuan/ton).
1、 Trend analysis
Returning from the National Day holiday, the domestic market for metal silicon 441 # is experiencing an overall upward trend. The market situation of metal silicon 441 # is running steadily with small increases. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 9500-9600 yuan/ton, the market price reference for monitoring unit 441 # in Kunming is 9500-9700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port is 9500-9600 yuan/ton, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin is 9400-9500 yuan/ton, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan is 9100-9200 yuan/ton, and the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan is 9700-9900 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of raw materials: After the holiday, the domestic silica market has shown stable operation. The overall supply of silica mines is relatively loose, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. The overall supply and demand situation is basically stable. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Hubei Province remains around 310-350 yuan/ton, while the ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Inner Mongolia is around 290-330 yuan/ton.
In terms of production: In September 2026, the domestic production of metallic silicon was about 317000 tons, a decrease of about 11% compared to the previous month. In September, the market showed a parallel trend of silicon enterprises starting production and increasing production. In October, it is expected that the release of production capacity in the northern region will continue to coexist with the reduction of production in the southwestern region. In October, it is expected that the domestic production of metallic silicon will increase slightly compared to the previous month, and downstream customers will continue to pick up goods one after another. It is expected that the market will have a slight destocking.
In terms of supply and demand: As we enter October and the beginning of the month, downstream demand continues to be mainly driven by rigid procurement. The supply pressure of spot silicon metal is not significant, and the quotes of holders are generally stable but slightly firm. The overall transmission of supply and demand is still good.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the silicon metal market is mild, and there is a certain degree of wait-and-see sentiment in the market after the holiday. The overall destocking situation in the market in September is still good, and the mentality of industry players is good. Data analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly fluctuate and operate strongly, and specific attention needs to be paid to the resumption of production in some areas and downstream construction.

1、 Market Overview

This week, the domestic melamine market as a whole showed a trend of “high-level sideways movement and narrow range oscillation”. As of October 9th, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6325.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price at the beginning of this week (October 2nd), with a fluctuation of 0.00%.
From the price trend, since October 2nd, the price of melamine has remained stable at 6325.00 yuan/ton, without any significant fluctuations. This extreme stability reflects the current balance of power between long and short sides in the market, with average trading activity and both upstream and downstream companies in a cautious wait-and-see state.
2、 Cost side: urea prices slightly decrease
As the main upstream raw material of melamine, the price fluctuation of urea directly affects the cost support of melamine.
As of October 9th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1777.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to the beginning of this month (1780.00 yuan/ton).
The weak consolidation of urea prices has slightly weakened the cost side support for melamine, but the decline is minimal (only 2.5 yuan/ton), which is not enough to have a substantial impact on the high price of melamine. The current strong price of melamine is more due to its own supply and demand pattern or the downstream board industry’s strong demand support, rather than simply cost push.
3、 Future forecast
Overall, the melamine market is in a game stage of “strong reality, weak expectations” in the short term.
Short term trend: Given the bullish positioning of the moving average system and the stability of prices, it is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of 6300-6350 yuan/ton at the beginning of next week. As long as the 10 day moving average does not fall below the 20 day moving average (i.e. the moving average does not turn negative), the upward trend has not been disrupted.