The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2025 can be summarized as “oversupply, price decline, and industry reshuffle”. The turning point of the core market from “out of stock” to “surplus”. 2025 is a new round of concentrated capacity expansion period after 2022. As of the end of the year, 1.05 million tons of new production capacity have been successfully put into operation, and the main new supply is gradually released in the second half of the year. However, downstream demand has not kept up, leading to a market downturn from a brief high at the beginning of the year and entering a stage of overall surplus.

1. Price trend: Open high and go low, continue to decline. At the beginning of 2025, due to the impact of some factory maintenance and delayed production of equipment under construction, the mentality of factories to raise prices increased, and the price once soared to a three-year high, reaching around 12000 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, downstream consumers have strong resistance to high priced raw materials, and with new production capacity being put into operation one after another, prices have started to “plummet”, initiating a sustained downward trend. By the end of the year, the mainstream market price in Shandong had dropped to around 7600 yuan/ton, halving from the high point at the beginning of the year. The annual average price of ports in East China for the whole year is about 8726 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of about 6.84%.
2. Supply side: The “explosion” of million ton production capacity and the adjustment of market structure in 2025 can be said to be the “big year for acrylonitrile production”, and the surge in supply is the main reason for crushing prices. The new facilities of the giants have been put into operation this year, and as of the end of the year, 1.05 million tons of new production capacity have been successfully put into operation. The domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has exceeded 5.449 million tons, with a growth rate of nearly 24%, reaching a historical high. (Some data even suggests that it may exceed 5.7 million tons.) And with the addition of four new companies, the number of domestic production enterprises has increased to 20. The industry concentration (CR5) has further declined, and market competition has shifted from “oligopoly monopoly” to “multi strong competition”.
3. Demand side: The main engine is “weak” and the upstream is working hard to produce, but the downstream’s “appetite” has decreased. Although ABS, as the largest downstream, has also seen an increase in new production capacity, weak consumer demand in household appliances and other end products, coupled with a sluggish real estate market, have resulted in low operating rates in ABS factories and limited ability to digest acrylonitrile. The traditional acrylic fiber field is under pressure due to the decrease in overseas orders. Although the demand for carbon fiber as an emerging field is growing rapidly (with an expected annual growth rate of 8% -12%), it is still unable to fill the gap left by ABS in the huge overall market. The latest data shows that the apparent consumption of acrylonitrile in November decreased by 4.05% month on month, indicating that demand is further weakening.
Outlook for Acrylonitrile Market in 2026
2026 is likely to be a continuation of the difficulties of 2025. Due to the fact that the production capacity concentrated in 2025 will be fully released by 2026, and downstream demand is difficult to grow synchronously, the market will face a more severe “supply-demand imbalance”. This will be a brutal elimination round about ‘who can survive’.

Core prediction: Prices further decline, industry enters a ‘reshuffle period’
1. Price trend: The center of gravity has shifted downwards, with low-level fluctuations. With the complete release of new production capacity, supply pressure continues to increase. Unless there is a large-scale equipment maintenance or unexpected outbreak on the demand side, it is difficult for prices to have a decent rebound. It is expected that the mainstream market price will fluctuate between 7700-9000 yuan/ton in 2026, and the annual average price may continue to decline compared to 2025.
2. Supply and demand pattern: The situation of oversupply will reach its peak in 2026, and the industry’s operating rate may further decline. The industry’s production capacity growth rate is expected to remain above 15% in 2026, with a planned construction capacity of over 1 million tons. This means that there will be more cheap acrylonitrile in the market looking for buyers. After the largest downstream ABS is put into production in 2025, the new production capacity will decrease in 2026, and the operating rate may remain low due to the macro consumption environment. Other downstream companies (such as acrylic) find it difficult to digest such a huge increase.
3. Profit expectation: The prices of propylene and liquid ammonia, the main raw materials with slight profit or loss in the entire industry, are expected to remain relatively stable compared to 2025, and are expected to fluctuate narrowly, which will not provide strong support for acrylonitrile. The theoretical profit margin of mainstream factories will continue to be compressed, and may even remain in a state of long-term losses or low profits. This will force high cost production capacity (such as some old and non integrated facilities) to “maintain value” by reducing load or shutting down.
Key variable analysis and recommendations

1. Pay attention to the “export” indicator: Since internal competition is inevitable, export volume will become the most noteworthy data in 2026. If export volume can increase significantly, it may temporarily alleviate the domestic downturn. By 2026, with the integration of coastal integrated facilities such as Zhenhai Refining and Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical, the export volume of domestic acrylonitrile to Southeast Asia, India and other places is expected to further increase, which will be an important “spillway” to balance domestic overcapacity. With the increasing demand for the automotive industry (especially oil seals, hoses) and oil resistant products, the consumption of acrylonitrile by nitrile rubber will also steadily increase.
2. Carbon fiber will be the biggest highlight, which is the most noteworthy variable in 2026 and also the most profitable and fastest-growing link in the acrylonitrile industry chain. Almost all carbon fiber raw fibers rely on acrylonitrile, and the growth of one ton of carbon fiber will directly drive the demand for one ton of acrylonitrile. With the large-scale wind turbine blades, carbon carbon composite materials for photovoltaics, and the explosive demand for hydrogen energy storage tanks, the carbon fiber industry is expected to maintain an average annual compound growth rate of over 30%. But carbon fiber has high requirements for raw material quality, usually supplied by high-end products from top manufacturers such as Sinopec and Jilin Petrochemical
3. Beware of the “cost line” game: 2026 will be a crucial year for clearing production capacity. It is necessary to closely monitor whether high cost devices within the industry (usually those non integrated, small-scale factories) experience large-scale parking or maintenance. Only when these ‘competitors’ withdraw can prices stabilize.
4. Cash flow is king: At this stage, pursuing high profits is unrealistic, survival is the top priority. It is recommended to adopt a “follow the market” sales strategy to maintain healthy cash flow and avoid the risk of price decline caused by inventory backlog.
Summary: The domestic acrylonitrile market in 2026 will be a “tough battle”. The downstream demand will be ‘large enough in total, but not divided enough’. Although carbon fiber and exports can eat up some of the newly added production capacity, facing the weakness of ABS and acrylic fibers, as well as the increasing production capacity of several million tons in the upstream, the overall bargaining power of the downstream is still strong, and the price of acrylonitrile is likely to remain fluctuating near the “cost line”, making it difficult to achieve a large profit market. Don’t expect prices to rebound significantly, be mentally prepared to “grind the bottom” near the cost line in the long run. The darkness before dawn is often the coldest, enduring it is rebirth.

Aluminum prices rose by 3.37% in December

Aluminum prices rose in December. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 22473.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.37% from the market average price of 21740 yuan/ton on December 1.
In December 2025, aluminum prices continued their upward trend from the end of October and repeatedly hit new highs for the year, with raw material alumina prices fluctuating at a low level. Currently, the profit per ton of aluminum is in a relatively good position. At present, the average profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum is between 5500-6000 yuan/ton, and the average profit per ton of raw material alumina is negative, ranging from -50 to -100 yuan.
The unsustainability of rare ‘reverse divergence’ between aluminum price and alumina
The “reverse deviation” between aluminum prices and alumina prices is essentially the result of short-term supply-demand mismatch and pricing logic differentiation. Its unsustainability stems from four core forces: the inherent law of industry chain profit rebalancing, the hard constraint of supply clearance, the long-term effectiveness of cost transmission, and the re correction of inventory and game theory. Ultimately, it will push the two to return to the normal direction or convergence.
On December 26th, the Industrial Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission released the “Vigorously Promoting the Optimization and Upgrading of Traditional Industries”, which focuses on “strengthening management, optimizing layout, curbing blind investment, and promoting mergers and acquisitions” for resource constrained industries such as alumina. In the short term, expectations will be driven by emotions, and in the medium term, production capacity clearance and structural optimization will be accelerated, reshaping the supply pattern in the long term. The trend of “anti involution” is expected to redistribute profits in the metal industry chain.
1、 Supply side: Loss forcing production capacity to clear and repair supply-demand imbalance
The loss of cash costs triggered passive production cuts: In December 2025, the price of alumina futures fell below the cash cost line of 2400-2500 yuan/ton, causing a loss of about 50 yuan per ton in the industry. Small production capacity with high mineral and energy consumption (accounting for about 15% -20%) was the first to shut down; In the first half of 2026, it is expected to reduce production by 8-12 million tons, and the supply growth rate will decrease from 8% to 3-4%, matching the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum demand and reversing the surplus pattern.
Slowing down of new production capacity and capacity replacement: Industry losses suppress the enthusiasm for new investment, and the planned new production capacity in 2026 may be reduced from 13 million tons to within 8 million tons; At the same time, environmental protection and energy consumption constraints are becoming stricter, and the high cost production capacity in inland areas is accelerating its withdrawal. The proportion of low-cost production capacity in coastal areas is increasing, and the supply structure is optimized to support price and profit recovery.
Inventory depletion strengthens price elasticity: The high level of alumina inventory (about 1.2 million tons by the end of 2025) will gradually decline with production reduction and demand recovery. When inventory drops below 800000 tons, the tight spot market will push prices to repair above marginal costs, creating conditions for profit return.
2、 Cost side: Strengthening bottom support makes it difficult for the cost curve to decline in the long term
The cost of bauxite has bottomed out and rebounded: bauxite accounts for about 60% of the cost of alumina, and the external dependence is about 70%; Guinea’s rainy season, geopolitical disturbances, or low port inventories (<80 million tons) will drive mineral prices to rebound from $68-70/ton to $75-80/ton, raising the cost floor of alumina and limiting the room for price decline.

Rigid increase in other costs: Fluctuations in prices of auxiliary materials such as electricity and caustic soda, as well as increased investment in environmental protection, are driving up the overall cost of alumina; If the price of alumina remains below the cost line for a long time, the enterprise will be forced to shut down due to cash flow disruption, forming a hard support of cost on price.
The long-term effectiveness of cost transmission: Alumina accounts for about 35% -40% of the cost of electrolytic aluminum. In the long run, changes in the cost end will eventually affect aluminum prices through the cost transfer of electrolytic aluminum. If the cost of alumina continues to rise, it will force aluminum prices to rise or compress electrolytic aluminum profits, repairing the distribution of industry chain profits.
3、 Demand side: Stable demand for electrolytic aluminum drives demand repair for alumina
Continued tight supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is constrained by the 45 million ton red line, while overseas (Europe, the United States) continues to reduce production due to high energy costs. The high demand for new energy (photovoltaics, new energy vehicles) drives the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum consumption to maintain 3% -4%, indirectly driving the demand for oxidized aluminum and alleviating the supply-demand imbalance.
The release of new overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity: The addition of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and other regions will bring new demand for over 2.4 million tons of alumina by 2026, further digesting domestic excess supply.
Expansion of demand for high-end alumina: The localization of high-purity alumina (4N+) is accelerating, with an import dependency of about 48%. With domestic technological breakthroughs and demand growth, the premium of high-end products is increasing, improving the overall profit structure of the industry.
4、 Industry chain game: profit redistribution, bargaining power rebalancing
The high profit of electrolytic aluminum forces the price increase of raw materials: the profit per ton of electrolytic aluminum reaches 5500-6000 yuan. In order to lock in the supply of raw materials, aluminum plants may accept the price increase of alumina (such as from 2500 yuan/ton to 2700-2900 yuan/ton), give up the alumina link, and repair their profits.
Optimization of Long Order Pricing Mechanism: Alumina enterprises lock in sales and prices by signing quarterly/annual long orders, reducing the risk of spot fluctuations; The increase in industry concentration (with the market share of top enterprises rising from 30% to 40%) enhances bargaining power and drives profits back to a reasonable range.
Rebalance of macro and financial attributes: Aluminum prices have strong financial attributes and are greatly affected by Fed interest rate cuts, geopolitical disturbances, etc., but they still need to anchor fundamentals in the long run; If macro easing expectations recede or demand falls, aluminum prices may come under pressure, which in turn will force alumina to reduce production capacity and drive price and profit recovery

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in December 2025, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market fluctuated downward, with an average price of 173750 yuan/ton on December 1 and 162000 yuan/ton on December 30, a cumulative decline of 6.76%.

Supply side: tight supply of antimony ore
From the above chart, it can be seen that the import volume of antimony ore sand and concentrate in China from January to November 2025 was 32655.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33.4%. The highest import volume in January 2025 was 4543 tons, and the lowest import volume in March 2025 was 1483 tons. The overall import volume is lower than the same period last year, and the overall supply of antimony ore in China is still tight.
According to customs statistics, the import volume of antimony ore sand and concentrate in China in November 2025 was 3642.9 tons, an increase of 15.6% month on month and a decrease of 36.9% year-on-year.
Demand side: Weak expectations for terminal consumption
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field.
Antimony oxide: Affected by weak demand, cost linkage, and market sentiment, the domestic antimony oxide market showed a fluctuating downward trend and a stabilizing bottom pattern in December. The price of antimony ingots dropped by 6.8% this month, dragging down the mentality of the spot market and driving the simultaneous decline of antimony oxide; Affected by the overseas Christmas holiday, the export growth this month fell short of expectations, resulting in insufficient boost to domestic demand. Although the supply side is supported by the cost of concentrate, as the end of the year approaches, traders are actively lowering prices and shipping to recoup funds, exacerbating the pressure on the spot market. Until the end of the year, due to the combined effects of factory closures, traders’ reluctance to sell, and market liquidity contraction, the downward space for prices narrowed, the market stopped falling, and entered a consolidation trend.
Photovoltaics: In December, domestic photovoltaic glass entered a phase of destocking, with a decrease in daily melting volume compared to the previous month. The demand for raw material antimony ingots also declined, and downstream inventory replenishment demand temporarily slowed down. Currently, domestic photovoltaic companies mainly focus on digesting inventory, with most purchases being small orders for essential needs, lacking demand support, resulting in a bearish performance in the raw material antimony ingot market.
Outlook for the future: The insufficient performance of the demand side is the main reason restricting the upward trend of the antimony ingot market. Overall, there has not been a substantial improvement in current terminal demand, and rigid procurement is still the main mode. It is expected that the domestic antimony ingot market will continue to operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the actual impact of the pre Spring Festival stocking of photovoltaic glass and the implementation of antimony export policy details on the market.

I. Trend Analysis

On December 29, the spot price of copper officially broke through the 100,000-yuan mark, reaching 101,053.33 yuan per ton, with a single-day increase of 3.24%. This is nearly three times the lowest price of 34,000 yuan since 2015 and represents a 36.87% rise from the year’s starting price of 73,830 yuan per ton. Citibank analysts even predicted that by 2026, copper prices are highly likely to surpass the 100,000-yuan threshold and set a new historic high! With just three days left before the new year, copper prices have already breached the 100,000-yuan mark, demonstrating an unstoppable momentum!
In the futures market, on the Friday night session of the 26th, the Shanghai copper futures traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange broke through the 100,000 yuan mark for the first time in history, closing up over 3.3%. It closed firmly above the 100,000 yuan threshold, and on the 29th, the Shanghai copper futures remained firmly above 100,000 yuan during the day session. On the 26th Friday, New York copper futures showed even stronger gains, reaching over 5.8510 dollars per pound by the end of the session for the COMEX March futures contract, up nearly 5% from the previous day’s close. During U.S. stock market hours, it briefly surged to 5.8880 dollars per pound, surpassing the intraday high set during the unprecedented squeeze rally in July of this year, with a daily gain of 5.6%.
The recent surge in copper prices is the result of tight supply, rising demand, policy expectations, and financial speculation working in tandem.
The United States is hoarding copper frantically
The U.S. imposed a 50% high tariff on semi-finished copper tubes and wires while exempting raw copper ore from tariffs. This approach not only protects domestic copper processing enterprises but also allows the unimpeded import of large quantities of raw materials. Additionally, by requiring that 25% of domestically produced high-quality copper scrap be sold within the country, global copper resources are concentrated in the U.S. At the COMEX exchange in the U.S., copper inventories have piled up to a record 482,900 short tons, more than tripling from the beginning of the year. Over 60% of the copper inventories across the world’s three major exchanges are now stored in the U.S.
The global supply chain has been disrupted. Copper originally destined for Asia is now being rerouted to the United States. The copper price in the New York market is significantly higher than in London, yielding a net profit of several hundred dollars per ton after deducting transportation costs. As a result, copper supply in the Asian market has tightened, driving up spot price premiums.
Global copper mine black swan events occur frequently
In 2025, “black swan” events in global copper mining occurred frequently, including collapses in Chilean copper mines, production halts at Indonesian mining companies, and the unlikely resumption of Panamanian copper mines, resulting in a combined production reduction exceeding 3% of global output and a year-on-year decline of 220,000 tons. In 2026, global copper mining capacity additions fell short of 500,000 tons, with growth reaching only 1.4%, far lagging behind the 2.9% demand growth rate, creating a supply-demand gap of 180,000 tons. By 2027-2028, the gap will surge to 380,000 tons and 650,000 tons respectively, with the deficit widening further.

A comprehensive outbreak of new essential needs
The new rigid demand has exploded comprehensively, and the copper consumption of new energy vehicles is three to four times that of traditional fuel vehicles. An electric bus needs to use hundreds of kilograms of copper. AI computing power has become the biggest incremental dark horse, and copper is the “blood vessel” of computing power centers. A single high-end AI server uses 1520kg of copper, which is three times that of traditional servers. Liquid cooling systems and high-speed copper cables are indispensable, and the copper consumption for training a large model is comparable to 37 electric vehicles. The acceleration of global computing infrastructure in 2026 will drive a 45% surge in copper demand. What’s even more surprising is the humanoid robot race track, where a single robot uses 12kg of copper, and the joint motors and sensors are all supported by copper. After mass production and landing in 2026, there will be another wave of rigid demand.
The latest research by the IMF indicates that global oil demand will continue to decline in the next two decades, while copper demand will surge by 66% – copper is becoming the “industrial blood” of the new energy era. The global energy system is shifting from “combustion driven” to “current driven”, and all the foundations of electrification are copper. Based on this definition change, the current copper market has entered the era of “scarcity pricing”.
The decline of the US dollar drives up copper prices
The Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index fell nearly 0.8% last week, marking its largest weekly decline since the week of June 27th, making dollar denominated raw materials cheaper for most buyers. The latest inflation data in the United States has cooled down, and the market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates next year. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the US dollar usually weakens. For countries where we use Chinese yuan or other currencies, a weaker US dollar means we are buying things cheaper. Purchasing copper priced in US dollars reduces costs, which will stimulate more buyers to enter the market. A large amount of hot money poured into the copper market, adding fuel to this epic market trend.
The impact of copper price increase:
Chinese copper smelters are in talks with Chilean mining giant Antofagasta for cooperation next year, and the final copper concentrate processing fee has been confirmed to be “zero”! For example, if you open a flour mill and the farmers give you wheat, you can help them grind it into flour for free. You can’t earn a penny from processing fees, and can only rely on earning some hard-earned money from by-products such as wheat bran. The fact that smelters have all fallen to this point shows how tight the upstream copper ore is.
The days for power grid enterprises are tough. Last year, State Grid Corporation of China incurred additional costs of over 10 billion yuan due to the rise in copper prices, forcing the postponement of some rural power grid renovations and ultra-high voltage projects. The home appliance industry has also suffered, with copper accounting for 15% to 20% of the cost in air conditioning production. As copper prices rise, the cost of a single air conditioner increases by about 200 yuan, and ultimately these costs are passed on to consumers.
The cable industry uses an astonishing amount of copper, with copper materials accounting for 60% to 80% of production costs. The copper price has risen so much that manufacturers can’t bear it at all. The owner of a cable factory has calculated that for every 1000 yuan increase in copper prices, their cable cost per kilometer increases by several thousand yuan. How can we absorb the cost of copper prices, which have risen by over 35% since the beginning of the year? Either bear the losses themselves or raise prices to shift the pressure onto customers.

Overall, high copper prices are not a good thing. The trend of aluminum replacing copper is accelerating, and some industries have begun to study technical solutions to reduce copper usage. In the long run, there are no winners in the competition for resources.
Market forecast:
The soaring copper prices are the result of the combined effects of global supply shortages, explosive demand, and macro financial environment. This indicates that the pattern of the metal market is undergoing profound changes in the context of global resource competition and energy transformation. For our country, as the world’s largest copper consumer and manufacturing powerhouse, how to ensure the security of our supply chain and gain more say in this changing situation will be an extremely important issue. In the short term, copper prices have reached a historic high, with some profitable funds being cashed out and combined with year-end fund withdrawals, it is highly likely to enter a high volatility trend. But in the long run, the goal of 100000 is not the end point, but a new starting point, and the core logic of copper prices has never changed.

According to the Business Society Commodity Price Analysis System, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices experienced a significant decline in December, with continuous downward trends in the prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium-iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium. By the 26th, the price of dysprosium oxide stood at 1.345 million yuan per ton, down 9.43%; the price of dysprosium-iron alloy was 1.32 million yuan per ton, down 9.59%; and the price of metallic dysprosium was 1.91 million yuan per ton, down 7.95%.

In December, the market prices of heavy rare earths experienced a significant decline. Due to weak end-demand, market activity gradually cooled down, and trading remained cautious. The metal market remained relatively stable, with some metal traders proactively lowering prices to attract buyers. In Jiangxi and Guangxi regions, the operating rates of separation enterprises remained low, and heavy rare earth production showed little change. Additionally, due to sluggish procurement by some magnetic material companies, the price trend of heavy rare earths dropped sharply.
1. Demand side: End-of-year rigid demand contraction + high-price resistance, leading to a slowdown in procurement pace
End-of-year cash flow pressure: Downstream magnet materials, wind power, and new energy vehicle manufacturers are entering year-end settlements, leading to tight cash flows for small and medium-sized enterprises. These companies are reducing raw material inventories, only maintaining sporadic essential purchases, and deferring bulk orders until the first quarter of 2026.
High prices dampen procurement willingness: Oxide prices of terbium and dysprosium remained at elevated levels (terbium oxide once approached 7 million yuan per ton), with downstream sectors clearly resisting high-cost raw materials. A “buying high but not low” sentiment spread, creating a strong wait-and-see atmosphere that intensified price declines through reduced transactions.
Seasonal weakening in demand: The peak season for wind power installations is nearing its end, and the production and sales growth of new energy vehicles have experienced a temporary slowdown, leading to reduced incremental demand for heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium, with weak support from the demand side.
The export lead effect fades: Overseas orders drove exports up 24.4% year-on-year in November, but declined seasonally in December, weakening the price support from export demand.
II. Supply Side: Short-term Supply Elasticity Release and Seasonal Inventory Relief
Burma’s Concentrated Shipment Before Mining Ban: Prior to the full-scale mining ban policy taking effect at the end of the year, Myanmar’s ion-type mineral shipments (key raw material for heavy rare earths) were concentrated during the early part of December, improving raw material supply for domestic separation plants and leading to a temporary increase in spot supply.
Domestic Quotas and Maintenance Shipments: The total production target for 2025 is 145,000 tons (up 5% year-on-year). Towards the end of the year, some separation plants accelerated shipments to meet annual targets, combined with inventory clearance before maintenance at certain facilities, leading to a short-term increase in spot market liquidity.
Supplementary Supply from Scrap Recycling: When the prices of heavy rare earths are at high levels, the volume of scrap recycling increases, alleviating short-term supply shortages to some extent and suppressing spot prices.
Market Outlook: In the long term, the rigid constraints on the supply side of heavy rare earths (such as Myanmar’s mining ban and strict domestic quotas) remain unchanged, while the long-term growth drivers on the demand side (humanoid robots, wind power, and new energy vehicles) are solid. It is expected that by the first quarter of 2026, as demand recovers and inventory is depleted, prices may gradually stabilize and rebound.

1. Analysis of the Metal Silicon Market in 2025

(1) Price Trend Description
According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, the market price of metallic silicon (#441) in 2025 generally exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by fluctuation at a mid-to-low level. On January 1, 2025, the market price of metallic silicon (#441) was referenced at 11,690 yuan/ton, while on December 31, 2025, it was referenced at 9,620 yuan/ton, resulting in an annual decline of 17.71%. The highest annual price was 11,690 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 8,620 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation range of 26.26%.
From January to June 2025, the domestic silicon metal market exhibited a trend of “continuous decline with minor fluctuations at the bottom.” The market center gradually moved toward lower levels. Taking 441# oxygenated silicon metal (silicon content ≥99%) as a representative, the market experienced a slow decline from January to March, with prices dropping below the 10,000-yuan mark. From April to June, the market accelerated its bottoming-out process, with prices continuing to fall. By the end of June, the price of silicon metal reached its lowest point of the year, at 8,620 yuan per ton, resulting in an overall decline of 26.26% for the first half of the year.
From July to December 2025, the domestic silicon metal market experienced a narrow recovery, but the rebound was limited. The market remained in a low-to-mid range fluctuation, with prices hovering between 9,300 and 9,700 yuan per ton, ending the year in a weak manner.
(2) Analysis of Market Influencing Factors
Supply-demand imbalance is the core factor influencing the trend of the silicon market
In the first quarter of 2025, although the silicon metal plants implemented phased production cuts, downstream restocking demand remained in a lull. Coupled with delayed production reductions at some Xinjiang facilities, March saw the gradual commissioning of new capacities and supply growth expectations, leading to persistent inventory accumulation and escalating supply pressure, which fueled market pessimism. From April to June, weak market demand recovery, coupled with the simultaneous collapse in prices of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon, further dampened transaction expectations. The increased operational rates at Xinjiang plants further intensified supply pressure, resulting in a pronounced supply-demand standoff and rapid price declines.
In July, production cuts in some regions supported the market’s recovery, but limited demand transmission led to insufficient momentum for sustained rebound. Prices declined to mid-to-low levels and fluctuated between August and September. From October to December, the metal silicon market remained weak on both supply and demand sides, with prices narrowly fluctuating and trending downward toward the end of the year.
II. Outlook on the Metal Silicon Market in 2026
(1) Supply side
1. production capacity
From 2021 to 2024, China’s metal silicon production capacity steadily increased. In 2025, the production capacity continued to expand, reaching approximately 7.846 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 8.94%. In 2026, the supply side of metal silicon is expected to experience a modest expansion, with the focus of capacity expansion shifting toward the northwest region. However, the newly added capacity will be limited, primarily consisting of previously uncommissioned projects, totaling around 700,000 tons. The increase in capacity remains relatively controllable, and the overcapacity situation is unlikely to be fundamentally reversed in the short term.
2. Output

In the first three quarters of 2025, the production of silicon metal was approximately 3.328 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. In the fourth quarter, the market showed loose supply and demand, with poor expectations for production growth. Therefore, overall, the expected annual production of metallic silicon in 2025 is expected to decline. The decline in production is mainly affected by overcapacity, weak demand, and reduced production to alleviate pressure.
However, there is still a possibility of a slight increase in the national production of metallic silicon in 2026, and it is expected that the industrial silicon production will be in the range of 4-4.4 million tons by 2026. On the one hand, the increase in production in the northwest and the production scale in the southwest are limited due to cost and policy factors. If the industry implements policies to reduce production capacity and decrease output, the growth rate of production will be restricted. On the other hand, if enterprises are stimulated by prices and release new production capacity, there may be a possibility of output growth, but under the game of supply and demand, the willingness of enterprises to increase production may also tend to be rational.
（2） In terms of demand
In 2025, the overall demand performance of the silicon metal market is expected to be poor. In 2026, the three major downstream areas of silicon metal may be closely related to the aluminum alloy field, which can bring certain demand pull to the market. Let’s take a closer look at three aspects:
1. Polycrystalline silicon field
In 2026, the expected implementation of the “anti involution” policy is expected to result in a downward trend in polysilicon production capacity and output. The market may experience a contraction in supply. The reduction in production combined with the purchase of essential needs has suppressed the transmission of demand for raw material silicon metal. It is expected that the growth rate of demand for silicon metal from polycrystalline silicon will slow down or even decline in 2026.
2. Organic silicon field
Affected by the sluggish real estate industry, the demand for metallic silicon in the organic silicon market in 2026 may remain basically the same as in 2025. The demand for organic silicon terminal real estate is weak, and the recovery of non real estate demand continues to slow down. Although the industry has reduced production and raised prices in the early stage, the concentrated production of new capacity has resulted in weak production growth, making it difficult to have a significant increase in demand for metallic silicon and maintaining a relatively stable scale.
3. Aluminum alloy and other fields
In 2026, driven by the demand for non-ferrous metals, the demand for metallic silicon in areas such as aluminum alloys may increase year-on-year. The strong consumption of non-ferrous metals has led to a rebound in aluminum alloy production, but the decline in marginal demand for building materials has limited the growth rate. Therefore, although aluminum alloys and other fields have a certain positive impact on the demand for silicon metal, their overall contribution is limited.
3、 Summary
The core contradiction of the metal silicon market in 2025 is the “supply-demand imbalance”. The mismatch between loose supply and weak demand is suppressing the market, and the support for the metal silicon market is insufficient. The price shows a ladder like downward trend and then oscillates at a low level. The supply pattern of silicon metal market in 2026 still shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is still pressure to release high inventory and new production capacity, and it will take time for downstream demand to recover. In the long run, it is necessary to focus on the demand support rhythm in strategic areas such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and also pay attention to the impact of policy promotion, enterprise production reduction, and raw material price fluctuations on the mark

et.

Market Review for 2025: Volatile Downtrend with Oversold Recovery in the Final Quarter

In 2025, the melamine market exhibited an overall pattern of “declining first and then rising, with a year-on-year price drop,” accompanied by a significant downward shift in the price range.
1. High opening at the beginning of the year, trend weakening: At the start of the year (January 1st), prices were at a relatively high level of 6322.50, but the upward momentum weakened quickly, soon turning into a decline.
2. The prolonged downtrend: Since February, prices entered a nearly three-quarter-long one-sided decline. Although there were brief consolidations during this period, the downward trend persisted, reaching an annual low of 5,412.50 by November 17, marking a cumulative drop of 14.39% from the year’s peak. This extended decline primarily reflected:
Supply pressure: The industry may face challenges due to increased production capacity or higher operating rates.
Weak demand: The demand in key downstream industries such as steel plates and coatings (closely linked to real estate) remains sluggish, leading to cautious procurement.
Cost and Market Sentiment: Fluctuations in the raw material market and heightened bearish expectations have intensified the downward momentum in prices.
3. Significant rebound at year-end: After hitting the bottom, the market staged a “V-shaped” recovery over more than a month before the year-end, surging to 5,675.00 by December 23, rebounding approximately 4.85% from the lowest point. This indicates:
The price has reached a strong support level: around 5412.50, which may have hit the cost line or psychological bottom for most manufacturers, triggering reluctance to sell or maintenance shutdowns.
Short-term positive stimulus: boosted by factors such as plant shutdowns, potential downstream pre-holiday inventory replenishment, short-term increases in export orders, or rising upstream raw material prices.
Annual Summary: Despite a significant rebound in late December, the closing price of 2025 (5675.00) still fell by 10.24% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating that bearish forces dominated the market throughout the year, with the overall market undergoing a process of bottom-seeking and center-of-gravity decline.
The price trend from 2025 (long-term one-sided decline → oversold rebound by year-end) clearly reveals the core contradiction on the demand side: for most of the year, downstream real demand fails to absorb market supply, leading to persistent inventory pressure and pessimism that continues to drive prices downward.
Looking ahead to 2026, the demand side will be the key factor determining whether the market will continue to rebound, consolidate in a bottoming-out range, or further decline. Below is a detailed analysis based on the demand side:
Core Demand Driving Force Analysis
The downstream demand for melamine primarily consists of three components: boards and decorative papers (approximately 60%), coatings and molded plastics (approximately 30%), and others (paper, textiles, flame retardants, etc.). Its market trends are closely linked to real estate, home furnishing, and exports.
Domestic Construction and Home Furnishing Demand: Stabilizing at a Low Point, Lacking Strong Stimulus
In 2026, large-scale “incremental” real estate development is expected to be difficult to replicate. The primary demand drivers will come from policy-driven existing projects such as the completion of “delivery guarantees,” urban village renovations, and old residential community upgrades. This will provide a relatively stable “floor” for melamine demand, preventing unlimited declines as seen in 2025. However, this portion of demand is more likely to manifest as “steady release” rather than “explosive growth.”.

The fundamental shift in consumers’ expectations regarding the real estate market and income prospects implies that the demand for customized home furnishings and new construction decoration, which are closely tied to new housing, will struggle to rebound quickly. This dampens the potential for melamine demand and sets a price ceiling. The recovery in demand will be slow and structural.
2. Export Demand: Key “Unknown Factors” and Major Variables
Exports serve as the most crucial valve for melamine to digest domestic overcapacity and balance supply and demand. The price rebounded strongly in November 2025 after hitting a bottom, likely due to overseas stockpiling ahead of year-end holidays and an increase in export orders during that period.
If the manufacturing and construction sectors in major global economies (such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America) recover in 2026, or if China’s melamine industry maintains strong competitiveness due to cost advantages, leading to sustained growth in export orders, it will become the core engine driving prices and may propel the market toward an upward trend amid volatility.
If the global trade environment deteriorates or overseas demand weakens due to economic recession, the “engine” of exports will stall, forcing the domestic market to rely entirely on internal demand. With domestic demand only able to provide a “floor,” the market will revert to a supply surplus scenario, making prices highly vulnerable to further pressure and likely to fluctuate within a low range.
3. Demand in Other Industrial Sectors: Stabilizers and Potential Growth Areas
The demand in sectors such as papermaking, textiles, and flame-retardant materials remains relatively stable and is closely tied to the overall macroeconomic activity. These areas serve as a “stabilizer” for demand. The potential highlights lie in environmental protection and upgrading needs. For instance, growing demand for formaldehyde-free boards and high-end eco-friendly coatings may drive consumption of high-quality melamine. However, this segment accounts for a relatively small proportion and primarily represents structural opportunities, making it difficult to independently boost the overall market trend.

Scenario outlook for market trends in 2026 (based on demand side)
Based on the above analysis, the melamine market in 2026 may present the following three scenarios, whose probabilities and core triggering conditions are directly related to demand:
1. Benchmark scenario (highest probability): weak demand recovery, price range oscillation
Domestic policies support stable demand, but the overall real estate chain is weak; The export market has performed averagely and has not exceeded expectations. The market lacks a strong driving force for unilateral rise or fall. The price will fluctuate widely between the production cost line (around 5400, forming strong support) and the pressure level caused by weak demand (around 5900-6000). The rebound at the end of 2025 has become an effective “bottoming out confirmation”, but it cannot develop into a reversal. Trading opportunities are mainly based on frequency bands.
2. Optimistic scenario: Strong export pull, price fluctuation and upward trend
Overseas demand is strong, and export orders continue to grow, effectively diverting domestic supply pressure. Meanwhile, domestic demand does not further deteriorate. Driven by the export of this “engine”, the supply-demand pattern has been substantially improved. The price is expected to continue the rebound trend at the end of 2025, attempting to challenge and stabilize above 6000 points, presenting a pattern of “center of gravity shifting upward and fluctuating upward”. The height and duration of the rise will directly depend on the strength of exports.
3. Pessimistic scenario: domestic and foreign demand resonance is weak, and prices are once again bottoming out
The release of domestic stock projects fell short of expectations, while the export market significantly shrank, creating a dual pressure of internal and external demand. The rebound at the end of 2025 has been proven to be a short-lived replenishment market. Under the comprehensive contraction of demand, prices will rebound and then turn downwards again, testing and possibly falling below the low point of 2025 (5412.50), and the industry will enter a more painful stage of capacity clearance.
Overall judgment: In 2026, the demand side of the melamine market is unlikely to provide strong unilateral upward momentum, but it is expected to build a “bottom and top” range. It is difficult for the price to return to the high level at the beginning of 2025, but the possibility of a deep drop below the low point of 2025 is also reduced due to policy support.
Conclusion: The market in 2026 is likely to unfold in a game between “domestic bottoming demand” and “overseas export variables”. The most likely path to occur is the interval oscillation under the baseline scenario. Market participants should closely monitor changes in export data, which will be the key to breaking the volatile pattern and determining the direction of the market.

Silver skyrockets

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market quoted 16320 yuan/kg in the morning session on December 23, 2025, an increase of 21.66% compared to the average silver market price of 13414 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (December 1); The average price of silver market at the beginning of the year (January 1st) was 7450 yuan/kg, an increase of 119.06%.
Multi factor resonance supports the surge of silver prices
The recent surge is the result of multiple factors resonating, including rigid constraints on the supply side, positive expectations on the demand side, and drivers of monetary policy and macro expectations. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. Rigid constraints on the supply side:
Mineral supply is limited: about 70% of global silver is associated minerals (copper, gold, lead and zinc, and other main mineral by-products), with weak independent expansion momentum and long cycles. In 2024, mineral silver production reached 820 million ounces, a significant decline from the peak, and there is no hope for new production capacity to be added in 2025.
Supply lag in recycling: The growth of recycled silver cannot keep up with the demand growth rate. The global supply gap has lasted for five consecutive years, with a shortfall of about 95 million ounces by 2025. Inventory has dropped to a low level that can only cover 1.2 months of consumption.
Strategic hoarding intensifies tension: The United States has included silver in its key mineral list, causing traders to hoard and deliver, pushing up leasing rates and spot premiums. London’s deliverable inventory has dropped to a ten-year low, triggering an emergency “airplane silver” transport.
2. Expectations on the demand side are positive:
Industrial demand accounts for over 60%, with photovoltaics (TOPCon/heterojunction cell silver consumption increase), new energy vehicles, and AI data centers being the core engines. By 2025, photovoltaic silver consumption will account for nearly 40% of total industrial demand.
The surge in investment demand: Silver ETFs continue to experience net inflows (iShares Silver ETF holdings have risen by over 6% in recent months), and the recovery of the gold silver ratio and the bull market in gold have driven funds to shift towards high elasticity silver, forming a buying resonance.
Among them, investment demand is the main driving factor for the rapid rise. The speculative atmosphere is strong.
3. Monetary policy and macroeconomic expectations driving:
Expectations of Fed interest rate cuts are heating up: Non farm and retail sales data weakened in November, the Fed’s interest rate meeting in December was dovish, and the market is betting on continued interest rate cuts in 2026. The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in real interest rates will lower the holding cost of interest free silver and enhance its relative attractiveness.
Risk aversion and credit hedging: High global debt, rising currency depreciation risks, geopolitical tensions (such as US Venezuela relations), and concerns about financial stability are driving funds to increase their allocation of silver as a “cheap gold substitute”.
Be cautious and bullish in the short term in the future market
This surge is the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as industrial demand, supply and demand patterns, financial policies, and capital inflows. In the future, silver prices may face high volatility and pullback risks in the short term, while in the medium to long term, they are likely to maintain an upward trend due to fundamental support.

According to the Business Society’s commodity market analysis system, as the end of 2025 approaches, the domestic PP market remains weak and consolidating, with prices for various grades mostly declining rather than rising. As of December 22, the benchmark quoted price for PP filament production was 6,253.33 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year change of -2.39%.

price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In the early stages, the new round of production increases by OPEC+ intensified industry concerns about crude oil oversupply. Recently, due to low price levels and the approaching holiday season, seasonal demand has risen, leading to a rebound in international oil prices. For propylene, inventories were at historically low levels earlier, with tightened supply and elevated spot prices. By mid-month, prices had risen to a阶段性 high, but as the favorable factors gradually diminished, spot prices have since declined. In the case of propane, overseas prices remain high, and port cargo prices are also elevated, with overall prices remaining firm. Overall, the price trends of PP raw materials show mixed performance, but the cost support for PP remains relatively adequate.
Supply side:
In the latter half of December, domestic PP enterprises largely balanced between resuming production and maintenance, with limited overall changes in operating rates. As of the time of writing, the industry’s total load level stands at approximately 79%, showing minimal deviation from the beginning of the month. The current weekly average total output is close to 820,000 tons, while inventory levels remain around 800,000 tons, keeping market supply ample. However, multiple maintenance plans are set to be implemented in the near future, leading to an expected slight decline in production. Overall, the supply side provides only moderate support to spot prices.
Demand side:
Domestic economic meetings released neutral information, falling short of market expectations and failing to significantly boost operator sentiment. In the e-commerce sector, there is some pull on consumption for packaging and household appliances, but the overall trading atmosphere in the industry remains limited. Meanwhile, the impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and trade protectionism persists, dragging down the export of finished products and leaving downstream enterprises with suboptimal production loads. Currently, the finished product market for polypropylene (PP) end-use enterprises is lukewarm, with slower raw material digestion. As the year draws to a close, end-use enterprises show low willingness to build inventories, while midstream players increasingly engage in price concessions to reduce stockpiles. The demand momentum struggles to support spot PP prices.
Market Outlook
In late December, domestic PP market prices remained weak and fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, upstream raw material prices were mostly rising, providing moderate support for PP. Industry load rates stabilized at high levels, while consumption improvements were limited. With large-scale production capacity, the supply surplus remains unchanged, and there is little incentive for further inventory digestion. PP market trends are expected to continue adjusting.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first fell and then rose this week. As of the 19th, copper prices were reported at 92496.67 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the beginning of the week, 25.28% from the beginning of the year, and 25.1% year-on-year.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have risen slightly this week, with a decrease of 4 and an increase of 7 in the past three months.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 164275 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.96% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, after the release of November employment data in the United States, market sentiment quickly turned optimistic, with 64000 new jobs added. Although it exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021. The market’s expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has driven up metal prices, as lower borrowing costs are conducive to stimulating the economy and metal demand.
Supply side: Supply is facing shortage pressure. The joint negotiation group for Chinese copper raw materials has released a signal to reduce mining capacity by 10%, resulting in a significant increase in the cancellation of warehouse receipts for copper inventory on the London Metal Exchange. The Deutsche Bank report states that 2025 will be a “severely disrupted year”, with major copper producers lowering their production expectations and expecting a reduction of approximately 300000 tons in copper production by 2026. In addition, the hoarding of copper by the United States is also exacerbating the tense situation of global copper supply. The United States is hoarding copper inventory due to arbitrage opportunities, and the phenomenon of physical copper hoarding is gradually eroding international copper supply, especially the inventory situation on the London Metal Exchange is becoming increasingly tight.
On the demand side: The rapid rise in copper prices has brought enormous cost pressure to downstream manufacturing industries. Air conditioning manufacturing companies are the first to bear the brunt, and recently some companies have announced price increases. In addition, 19 air conditioning companies jointly announced their accession to the self regulatory convention on aluminum reinforcement applications, hoping to resolve cost pressures through “aluminum replacing copper”.
In summary, Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will increase from $10650/ton to $11400/ton in 2026; Citigroup is more aggressive, predicting that copper prices will exceed $13000/ton in early 2026 and may even reach $15000/ton in the second quarter of next year. ING commodity strategist Ava Mante said that the fundamentals of the copper market remain tight, with an expected average copper price of $11500 per ton in 2026, and may reach a peak of nearly $12000 in the second quarter. The market is concerned that a large influx of copper into the United States may preemptively respond to potential import tariffs, which could exacerbate copper shortages in other regions; The slowdown in global economic growth or the escalation of trade frictions may also suppress copper demand, leading to a decline in copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.