1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices rose sharply in March. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 76846.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price rose sharply to 81536.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 6.1% and a year-on-year increase of 13.83%.
According to the Business Society’s current chart, copper spot prices in March were mostly higher than futures prices, with the main contract being the expected price two months later, and the expected future price may be under pressure.
According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly decreased in March. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 216750 tons, up 16.97% from the beginning of the month.
Macro wise: In March 2025, the global economy is facing many uncertainties. Concerns about a US economic recession have intensified, with global manufacturing PMI continuing to decline since June. The US job market is weak, and there is growing concern in the market about the US economy falling into recession. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has slowed down its balance sheet tightening, while the US dollar remains high, putting some pressure on the global copper market. The US government launched a copper import security investigation on February 25th, and the market expects that copper tariffs may accelerate their implementation. This policy is expected to have a significant impact on copper prices, driving them up. In addition, the economic stimulus policies and demand expectations of major economies such as China have also had a positive impact on the copper market.
Supply side: The global copper production growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025, with a projected supply growth rate of only 1.3%. Chile, Peru and other major producing countries have seen lower than expected production growth due to tightened environmental policies and declining ore grades. Chinese copper smelters are facing dual pressures of overcapacity and tight raw material supply. Some smelters will start equipment maintenance in March 2025, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. Global copper mining project reserves are gradually depleting, new projects are scarce, ore supply is limited, and the problem of overcapacity in smelting still exists.
Downstream: The new energy vehicle industry continues to develop, and it is expected that the global sales growth rate of new energy vehicles will be around 23.85% by 2025, which will bring a new increase in copper demand of 656000 tons. In addition, the demand for copper in new energy sectors such as photovoltaics and wind power is steadily increasing, providing strong support for copper prices. In 2025, the demand for China’s power grid will remain stable, and the production of household air conditioners from March to May will continue to grow rapidly, supporting the demand for copper. At the same time, although the global manufacturing PMI has fallen slightly, it is still in the expansion range overall, and the demand for copper remains stable.
According to the annual price comparison chart of Shengyi Society, in the past five years, copper prices have mostly risen in April.
In summary, as the end of the month approaches, the US automobile tariff policy has been implemented and the possibility of negotiated exemptions has been clearly ruled out. Federal Reserve officials have warned that trade barriers will exacerbate imported inflationary pressures, and the strengthening of the US dollar will suppress commodity prices. As a result, US copper prices have fallen from their high levels. The fundamentals show a mixed pattern of long and short positions: the sudden force majeure event at the Altonorte smelter in Chile on the supply side, coupled with the tightening trend of global copper mine supply, still maintains stable cost support; On the spot side, there is still a strong demand for copper in the domestic market, but high prices are suppressing demand. As the end of the month and the Qingming holiday approach, there is a lack of downstream willingness to replenish inventory, and there is a strong fear of high prices among end-users. Against the backdrop of weak supply and demand, copper prices lack trend breaking momentum and may continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi region stopped falling this week (3.22-3.26), with an average market price of 15966 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15825 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.89%.

Supply and demand side

Magnesium prices saw a slight correction in the last week of March. At present, the inventory pressure of factories is at a relatively low level, but the accounting results of overall operating conditions still show significant challenges. Supported by cost factors, factories have a strong willingness to maintain price stability. Most factories are still in the stage of reducing production.

At present, there is no significant sign of market demand recovery, and there is no major positive news to boost market confidence. Therefore, it is expected that the magnesium market will still face considerable operational pressure in the short term. Downstream users are only satisfied with maintaining basic procurement needs, and the number of new orders is relatively limited. In this context, some manufacturers choose to slightly lower their prices to cope with market changes, while others insist on maintaining current prices unchanged, resulting in low overall transaction activity in the market.

Raw material end

The price of Fugu 75 silicon iron remained stable compared to the middle of last week. The silicon iron market is currently in a stable state, with futures prices fluctuating upwards and then falling back. The spot market is slightly weak but overall stable in a stalemate. In the Fugu orchid charcoal market, orchid charcoal prices have shown a weak trend, and companies have successively implemented price reduction measures, resulting in a slight decrease in quotations.

comprehensive analysis

In summary, downstream industries have weak demand, mainly focusing on purchasing to meet basic needs. Market inquiries and transaction activity have decreased, and the transaction atmosphere appears relatively quiet. It is expected that the short-term adjustment of magnesium prices within the range will not be significant.

Last week (March 17-23, 2025), the market for the main raw material of viscose staple fiber, dissolved pulp, was mainly stagnant, and the cost performance was average; Downstream cotton yarn enterprises are restocking according to demand, but demand has not improved and remains weak. The trading activity on the market is average, and many operators are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The market price of viscose staple fiber is weak and stable for the time being.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 23, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 13600 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous week’s price.

The main raw material dissolution slurry remains stable

Last week (March 17-23, 2025), the main raw material dissolution pulp market was in a stalemate. As of March 23, the price of domestically produced dissolution pulp was around 7600 yuan/ton, the price of external broad-leaved pulp was around 930 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp was around 1030 US dollars/ton. The auxiliary liquid alkali market and sulfuric acid market continue to maintain stable prices, while the cost support for adhesive short fibers remains weak and stable.

Good supply and demand are hard to find

Last week (March 17-23, 2025), the on-site supply gradually increased, and downstream yarns mostly maintained their demand, resulting in poor shipments and low enthusiasm for picking up adhesive short fibers. Some adhesive short fiber factories saw an increase in physical inventory levels, with limited support from the supply side.

The downstream cotton yarn market prices have not changed much. As of now, the price of ring spun human cotton yarn 30S in Jiangsu region is around 17550 yuan/ton. However, due to insufficient orders in the terminal market, the shipment situation of yarn factories is not ideal, and there is still a certain amount of raw material inventory and finished product inventory, resulting in a weak willingness to purchase adhesive short fibers, and it is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side.

Future forecast

From a cost perspective, the main material dissolution slurry market is dominated by consolidation; From the perspective of supply and demand, there may be a slight increase in on-site supply, while industry inventory may remain at normal levels. Downstream markets or consumption of raw material inventory are the main focus, and there has been no significant improvement on the demand side. Overall, the market lacks positive news to boost it. Business analysts predict that there will be little price change in the domestic adhesive short fiber market in the short term, with prices expected to be accepted at 13600-13700 yuan/ton.

As of March 24th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week’s price of 6050 yuan/ton. This indicates that the overall market trend is stable. From a longer-term perspective, although the price of melamine has fluctuated, there has not been a significant increase or decrease in recent times.

Due to equipment aging, malfunctions, or maintenance needs, some melamine production units may still undergo planned maintenance this week. These maintenance activities are usually notified in advance and minimize the impact on production as much as possible. The implementation of the maintenance plan will have an impact on the supply and demand relationship of the melamine market. If maintenance leads to a decrease in supply while demand remains stable or increases, it may have a certain impact on market prices. The demand for melamine in downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings remains stable without significant growth or decline. This stable downstream demand has to some extent supported the smooth operation of the melamine market.

Some melamine production enterprises may respond to fluctuations in raw material prices by adjusting inventory. This inventory adjustment mechanism has to some extent stabilized market prices and reduced the direct impact of raw material price fluctuations on the market. Although there may still be some volatility in the future raw material urea market, the impact of current raw material prices on the melamine market is relatively limited. This is due to the combined effect of market supply and demand balance and inventory adjustment mechanism. As of March 24th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1931.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.06% compared to the beginning of this month (1892.00 yuan/ton).

According to the market analysis report, the market size of melamine is expected to continue to grow. For example, the global melamine market is expected to reach approximately $7.5 billion by 2025. This growth trend provides broad development space for the melamine market.

Although the melamine market remained stable this week, there is still some uncertainty in the future market trend. Fluctuations in raw material prices, changes in downstream demand, and policy adjustments may all have an impact on market prices. Therefore, enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and policy changes, and develop reasonable business strategies to cope with potential market risks.

In summary, the melamine market was mainly stable this week, thanks to the combined effects of multiple factors such as market supply and demand balance, stable production capacity, inventory regulation, and relatively stable raw material prices. However, there is still some uncertainty in the future market, and companies need to respond flexibly.

At the end of March, the domestic ABS market continued to trend weakly, with most spot prices of various grades falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11337.5 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.89% compared to the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: As we enter late March, the operating rate of the domestic ABS industry has shown significant fluctuations, with overall load slightly decreasing by 2% to around 71% compared to mid March. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of 120000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises is at a high level of over 190000 tons, indicating that the supply of goods is still very abundant. There has been no improvement in petrochemical plant orders, and traders are lagging behind in terms of goods delivery. Actual orders continue to yield profits, and there are more occurrences of orders being shipped. Overall, the supply side has poor support for ABS spot prices during the ten day period.

Cost factor: In late March, there was no improvement in the trend of ABS upstream materials, and the support for ABS cost side was average. At present, the supply-demand contradiction in acrylonitrile has not eased, and over 80% of the industry’s high load has resulted in abundant supply on site. After the early decline, it has fallen to the theoretical production cost line, and the entry of terminal procurement at low prices has gradually strengthened its role in supporting the price of acrylonitrile. The market has hit the bottom temporarily, and the downward trend has slowed down. The acrylonitrile market is expected to remain stagnant and consolidate in the future.

At the end of March, the butadiene market was mainly consolidating horizontally. In the first half of the month, the on-site transactions were weak, and the market momentum was not good. However, the downstream synthetic rubber futures market has improved, coupled with the increasing number of mainstream enterprises in the East China region facing temporary shutdowns. Under long short hedging, some merchants have attempted to raise prices. The current atmosphere in the spot market is calm, and market prices may consolidate.

The weak operation of styrene was the main trend at the end of March. There are many imported sources of pure benzene raw materials, and the shipments of Shandong’s local refining enterprises have fallen short of expectations. At the same time, there has been an increase in downstream maintenance, and downstream demand for gas is average. Holders of goods are actively shipping, and prices continue to fall, dragging down the styrene market. However, the subsequent maintenance of styrene is increasing, and the supply is expected to tighten. Downstream demand support is essential, and profits have slightly recovered. It is expected that the short-term market will mainly focus on narrow consolidation and operation.

On the demand side: The terminal side continues the previous flat pattern, and downstream buying is still lagging behind at the end of March. The load of terminal factories is generally flat, and the purchasing logic tends to be weak in demand and bottom fishing. The atmosphere of on-site purchasing is sluggish, and the flow of goods is slow. Overall, the demand side has weak support for the ABS market.

Future forecast

At the end of March, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and fell. The performance of the upstream three materials is poor, and the comprehensive support for ABS cost is weak. The load of the ABS polymerization plant remains stable with a slight decrease, while the inventory level remains high. Weak consumption on the demand side and insufficient procurement by downstream enterprises. Business analysts believe that the ABS market will have strong supply and weak demand in the long term, and it is difficult to find any positive results. In the short term, the market will still be dominated by weak consolidation.

Market Overview: This week, overall, the supply-demand imbalance has not eased, and the market has hit a bottom and is waiting to see, consolidating at a low level. As of March 21st, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup in East China ports is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week’s high price. Short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week’s high price.

On the supply side: Some facilities in East China have reduced their load or undergone maintenance, but at the same time, there are also plans to launch new production capacity. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction has not yet eased.

High inventory level: Overall supply still shows surplus. According to statistics, as of March 20th, the inventory level of domestic acrylonitrile factories was around 52000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the inventory was at a high level.

In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile has decreased, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 71.5%, a decrease of 1.5% from last week. Raw materials are purchased on demand, and overall demand fluctuations are limited.

Market forecast: Currently, the acrylonitrile market is in a stalemate and waiting, and there is still uncertainty in the short-term supply changes, including the reduction of existing equipment production and the introduction of new production capacity. However, the overall demand fluctuation is limited, so the market fundamentals may be maintained, and prices are unlikely to have significant fluctuations.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on March 20th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 10870 yuan/ton. Compared with March 16th (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 10950 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown a weak downward trend this week. During the week, the overall performance of the silicon metal spot market was average, with some grades continuing to experience narrow price reductions of around 50-100 yuan/ton. Among them, the market price of metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin area is based on 10500-10800 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of about 100 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan region is 10500-10700 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port area is 10700~10900 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 100 yuan/ton.

analysis of influencing factors

On the supply and demand side: Currently, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is light, and downstream factories mainly purchase for essential needs. At the beginning of the week, the focus of negotiations in the metal silicon spot market narrowly declined. During the mid week and weekend periods, there is a confrontation between demand side price suppression and supply side price increase. Some regions have a slight trend of offering discounts after increasing production, but there are also some regions where the cost pressure is low and the willingness is not strong, leading to a stalemate in the overall market operation.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall structure of the metal silicon market has not changed much. The metal silicon data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the overall fluctuation of the domestic metal silicon market is limited, and the market may maintain a weak consolidation operation. Specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

Aluminum prices strengthen in March

Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in March, and have recently experienced a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 19, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20626.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% from the market average price of 20570 yuan/ton on March 1.

In the early stage, aluminum prices continued their strong trend from January to February, but recently, aluminum prices have slightly fallen. Mainly due to the recent recovery of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the resumption of production at Sichuan electrolytic aluminum plant, and the high profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry, enterprises have achieved high yields.

The recent decline in the domestic PTA market has improved slightly, showing a slight rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 18th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4855 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.26% compared to March 12th.

Crude oil tends to fluctuate strongly. On March 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.58 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.07 per barrel. In the PX market, some South Korean PX facilities have delayed restart or extended maintenance time, which is favorable for the PTA market. Starting from mid March, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 2.5 million tons, CNOOC Huizhou’s 1.5 million tons, Jiujiang Petrochemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical’s 660000 tons, and Tianjin Petrochemical have all planned maintenance, and the domestic PX operating rate has gradually decreased. The planned maintenance of PX units in April and May is still relatively concentrated, and the scale of maintenance is slightly lower than the same period last year. It is expected that the destocking of PX in the second quarter will exceed 500000 tons, and the spot liquidity of PX may be tight in the future.

In March, PTA plant maintenance increased due to low processing costs and lower than expected terminal demand. In March, with the maintenance of more facilities such as Yizheng Chemical Fiber and Hengli Dalian, the scale of PTA maintenance has expanded again, and the current operating rate is around 75%. The expected PTA destocking in March is around 300000 tons, and the overall destocking in the second quarter is expected to be around 500000 tons.

The downstream polyester performance is weak, and the pressure is mainly affected by weaving. The performance of “Golden Three Silver Four” is not as expected, and the current operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines is only 67%. This year’s spring and summer orders are insufficient compared to the same period in previous years. At the same time, the release of US tariffs has further dragged down the textile market with orders placed in the export market, resulting in average demand support. Finished fabric inventory remains high, post holiday orders are insufficient, the market is cautious, and purchasing enthusiasm is not high.

Business analysts believe that with the strengthening of cost support, PTA will show a trend of destocking in March. At present, downstream consumers mainly consume pre season inventory. With the traditional peak season of the textile industry gradually approaching, if the downstream order situation improves, it is expected to continue to boost the PTA market.

Price index: The market price index of melamine in this cycle remained at 67.5 points, with fluctuations of no more than 0.5% compared to the previous week, indicating a high degree of stability in market prices. The market price range is 6080-6250 yuan/ton, and there has been no significant change in the price range compared to the previous week, further proving the stable wait-and-see trend of the market.

Market supply and demand data: According to statistics, the total supply of melamine in this cycle is about 31100 tons, with a change of less than 2% compared to the previous week, indicating the stability of the supply side. The capacity utilization rate remains stable, with a demand of approximately 61.73% for this cycle, fluctuating within 4% compared to the previous week, indicating that the demand side is also in a wait-and-see state.

Trading data: The trading frequency of this cycle has not changed much compared to the previous week, and trading activities are mainly concentrated in several major trading periods, indicating a wait-and-see attitude among market participants.

Inventory data: Manufacturer inventory: This week, the inventory level of melamine manufacturers remained at around XX%, with relatively small fluctuations compared to the previous week, indicating that manufacturers are maintaining stable supply while also cautiously controlling inventory levels. Downstream inventory: The inventory level of downstream industries remains stable, and the inventory level on Wednesday this week has not changed much compared to the previous week, further confirming the stable wait-and-see trend of the market.

In summary, the melamine market has shown a stable wait-and-see trend this week, with high stability in terms of supply and demand data, price index, transaction data, and inventory data. The future market trend still needs to be closely monitored for changes in market dynamics and influencing factors.