1. Analysis of the Metal Silicon Market in 2025

(1) Price Trend Description
According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, the market price of metallic silicon (#441) in 2025 generally exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by fluctuation at a mid-to-low level. On January 1, 2025, the market price of metallic silicon (#441) was referenced at 11,690 yuan/ton, while on December 31, 2025, it was referenced at 9,620 yuan/ton, resulting in an annual decline of 17.71%. The highest annual price was 11,690 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 8,620 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation range of 26.26%.
From January to June 2025, the domestic silicon metal market exhibited a trend of “continuous decline with minor fluctuations at the bottom.” The market center gradually moved toward lower levels. Taking 441# oxygenated silicon metal (silicon content ≥99%) as a representative, the market experienced a slow decline from January to March, with prices dropping below the 10,000-yuan mark. From April to June, the market accelerated its bottoming-out process, with prices continuing to fall. By the end of June, the price of silicon metal reached its lowest point of the year, at 8,620 yuan per ton, resulting in an overall decline of 26.26% for the first half of the year.
From July to December 2025, the domestic silicon metal market experienced a narrow recovery, but the rebound was limited. The market remained in a low-to-mid range fluctuation, with prices hovering between 9,300 and 9,700 yuan per ton, ending the year in a weak manner.
(2) Analysis of Market Influencing Factors
Supply-demand imbalance is the core factor influencing the trend of the silicon market
In the first quarter of 2025, although the silicon metal plants implemented phased production cuts, downstream restocking demand remained in a lull. Coupled with delayed production reductions at some Xinjiang facilities, March saw the gradual commissioning of new capacities and supply growth expectations, leading to persistent inventory accumulation and escalating supply pressure, which fueled market pessimism. From April to June, weak market demand recovery, coupled with the simultaneous collapse in prices of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon, further dampened transaction expectations. The increased operational rates at Xinjiang plants further intensified supply pressure, resulting in a pronounced supply-demand standoff and rapid price declines.
In July, production cuts in some regions supported the market’s recovery, but limited demand transmission led to insufficient momentum for sustained rebound. Prices declined to mid-to-low levels and fluctuated between August and September. From October to December, the metal silicon market remained weak on both supply and demand sides, with prices narrowly fluctuating and trending downward toward the end of the year.
II. Outlook on the Metal Silicon Market in 2026
(1) Supply side
1. production capacity
From 2021 to 2024, China’s metal silicon production capacity steadily increased. In 2025, the production capacity continued to expand, reaching approximately 7.846 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 8.94%. In 2026, the supply side of metal silicon is expected to experience a modest expansion, with the focus of capacity expansion shifting toward the northwest region. However, the newly added capacity will be limited, primarily consisting of previously uncommissioned projects, totaling around 700,000 tons. The increase in capacity remains relatively controllable, and the overcapacity situation is unlikely to be fundamentally reversed in the short term.
2. Output

In the first three quarters of 2025, the production of silicon metal was approximately 3.328 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. In the fourth quarter, the market showed loose supply and demand, with poor expectations for production growth. Therefore, overall, the expected annual production of metallic silicon in 2025 is expected to decline. The decline in production is mainly affected by overcapacity, weak demand, and reduced production to alleviate pressure.
However, there is still a possibility of a slight increase in the national production of metallic silicon in 2026, and it is expected that the industrial silicon production will be in the range of 4-4.4 million tons by 2026. On the one hand, the increase in production in the northwest and the production scale in the southwest are limited due to cost and policy factors. If the industry implements policies to reduce production capacity and decrease output, the growth rate of production will be restricted. On the other hand, if enterprises are stimulated by prices and release new production capacity, there may be a possibility of output growth, but under the game of supply and demand, the willingness of enterprises to increase production may also tend to be rational.
（2） In terms of demand
In 2025, the overall demand performance of the silicon metal market is expected to be poor. In 2026, the three major downstream areas of silicon metal may be closely related to the aluminum alloy field, which can bring certain demand pull to the market. Let’s take a closer look at three aspects:
1. Polycrystalline silicon field
In 2026, the expected implementation of the “anti involution” policy is expected to result in a downward trend in polysilicon production capacity and output. The market may experience a contraction in supply. The reduction in production combined with the purchase of essential needs has suppressed the transmission of demand for raw material silicon metal. It is expected that the growth rate of demand for silicon metal from polycrystalline silicon will slow down or even decline in 2026.
2. Organic silicon field
Affected by the sluggish real estate industry, the demand for metallic silicon in the organic silicon market in 2026 may remain basically the same as in 2025. The demand for organic silicon terminal real estate is weak, and the recovery of non real estate demand continues to slow down. Although the industry has reduced production and raised prices in the early stage, the concentrated production of new capacity has resulted in weak production growth, making it difficult to have a significant increase in demand for metallic silicon and maintaining a relatively stable scale.
3. Aluminum alloy and other fields
In 2026, driven by the demand for non-ferrous metals, the demand for metallic silicon in areas such as aluminum alloys may increase year-on-year. The strong consumption of non-ferrous metals has led to a rebound in aluminum alloy production, but the decline in marginal demand for building materials has limited the growth rate. Therefore, although aluminum alloys and other fields have a certain positive impact on the demand for silicon metal, their overall contribution is limited.
3、 Summary
The core contradiction of the metal silicon market in 2025 is the “supply-demand imbalance”. The mismatch between loose supply and weak demand is suppressing the market, and the support for the metal silicon market is insufficient. The price shows a ladder like downward trend and then oscillates at a low level. The supply pattern of silicon metal market in 2026 still shows regional differentiation. In the short term, there is still pressure to release high inventory and new production capacity, and it will take time for downstream demand to recover. In the long run, it is necessary to focus on the demand support rhythm in strategic areas such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and also pay attention to the impact of policy promotion, enterprise production reduction, and raw material price fluctuations on the mark

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Market Review for 2025: Volatile Downtrend with Oversold Recovery in the Final Quarter

In 2025, the melamine market exhibited an overall pattern of “declining first and then rising, with a year-on-year price drop,” accompanied by a significant downward shift in the price range.
1. High opening at the beginning of the year, trend weakening: At the start of the year (January 1st), prices were at a relatively high level of 6322.50, but the upward momentum weakened quickly, soon turning into a decline.
2. The prolonged downtrend: Since February, prices entered a nearly three-quarter-long one-sided decline. Although there were brief consolidations during this period, the downward trend persisted, reaching an annual low of 5,412.50 by November 17, marking a cumulative drop of 14.39% from the year’s peak. This extended decline primarily reflected:
Supply pressure: The industry may face challenges due to increased production capacity or higher operating rates.
Weak demand: The demand in key downstream industries such as steel plates and coatings (closely linked to real estate) remains sluggish, leading to cautious procurement.
Cost and Market Sentiment: Fluctuations in the raw material market and heightened bearish expectations have intensified the downward momentum in prices.
3. Significant rebound at year-end: After hitting the bottom, the market staged a “V-shaped” recovery over more than a month before the year-end, surging to 5,675.00 by December 23, rebounding approximately 4.85% from the lowest point. This indicates:
The price has reached a strong support level: around 5412.50, which may have hit the cost line or psychological bottom for most manufacturers, triggering reluctance to sell or maintenance shutdowns.
Short-term positive stimulus: boosted by factors such as plant shutdowns, potential downstream pre-holiday inventory replenishment, short-term increases in export orders, or rising upstream raw material prices.
Annual Summary: Despite a significant rebound in late December, the closing price of 2025 (5675.00) still fell by 10.24% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating that bearish forces dominated the market throughout the year, with the overall market undergoing a process of bottom-seeking and center-of-gravity decline.
The price trend from 2025 (long-term one-sided decline → oversold rebound by year-end) clearly reveals the core contradiction on the demand side: for most of the year, downstream real demand fails to absorb market supply, leading to persistent inventory pressure and pessimism that continues to drive prices downward.
Looking ahead to 2026, the demand side will be the key factor determining whether the market will continue to rebound, consolidate in a bottoming-out range, or further decline. Below is a detailed analysis based on the demand side:
Core Demand Driving Force Analysis
The downstream demand for melamine primarily consists of three components: boards and decorative papers (approximately 60%), coatings and molded plastics (approximately 30%), and others (paper, textiles, flame retardants, etc.). Its market trends are closely linked to real estate, home furnishing, and exports.
Domestic Construction and Home Furnishing Demand: Stabilizing at a Low Point, Lacking Strong Stimulus
In 2026, large-scale “incremental” real estate development is expected to be difficult to replicate. The primary demand drivers will come from policy-driven existing projects such as the completion of “delivery guarantees,” urban village renovations, and old residential community upgrades. This will provide a relatively stable “floor” for melamine demand, preventing unlimited declines as seen in 2025. However, this portion of demand is more likely to manifest as “steady release” rather than “explosive growth.”.

The fundamental shift in consumers’ expectations regarding the real estate market and income prospects implies that the demand for customized home furnishings and new construction decoration, which are closely tied to new housing, will struggle to rebound quickly. This dampens the potential for melamine demand and sets a price ceiling. The recovery in demand will be slow and structural.
2. Export Demand: Key “Unknown Factors” and Major Variables
Exports serve as the most crucial valve for melamine to digest domestic overcapacity and balance supply and demand. The price rebounded strongly in November 2025 after hitting a bottom, likely due to overseas stockpiling ahead of year-end holidays and an increase in export orders during that period.
If the manufacturing and construction sectors in major global economies (such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America) recover in 2026, or if China’s melamine industry maintains strong competitiveness due to cost advantages, leading to sustained growth in export orders, it will become the core engine driving prices and may propel the market toward an upward trend amid volatility.
If the global trade environment deteriorates or overseas demand weakens due to economic recession, the “engine” of exports will stall, forcing the domestic market to rely entirely on internal demand. With domestic demand only able to provide a “floor,” the market will revert to a supply surplus scenario, making prices highly vulnerable to further pressure and likely to fluctuate within a low range.
3. Demand in Other Industrial Sectors: Stabilizers and Potential Growth Areas
The demand in sectors such as papermaking, textiles, and flame-retardant materials remains relatively stable and is closely tied to the overall macroeconomic activity. These areas serve as a “stabilizer” for demand. The potential highlights lie in environmental protection and upgrading needs. For instance, growing demand for formaldehyde-free boards and high-end eco-friendly coatings may drive consumption of high-quality melamine. However, this segment accounts for a relatively small proportion and primarily represents structural opportunities, making it difficult to independently boost the overall market trend.

Scenario outlook for market trends in 2026 (based on demand side)
Based on the above analysis, the melamine market in 2026 may present the following three scenarios, whose probabilities and core triggering conditions are directly related to demand:
1. Benchmark scenario (highest probability): weak demand recovery, price range oscillation
Domestic policies support stable demand, but the overall real estate chain is weak; The export market has performed averagely and has not exceeded expectations. The market lacks a strong driving force for unilateral rise or fall. The price will fluctuate widely between the production cost line (around 5400, forming strong support) and the pressure level caused by weak demand (around 5900-6000). The rebound at the end of 2025 has become an effective “bottoming out confirmation”, but it cannot develop into a reversal. Trading opportunities are mainly based on frequency bands.
2. Optimistic scenario: Strong export pull, price fluctuation and upward trend
Overseas demand is strong, and export orders continue to grow, effectively diverting domestic supply pressure. Meanwhile, domestic demand does not further deteriorate. Driven by the export of this “engine”, the supply-demand pattern has been substantially improved. The price is expected to continue the rebound trend at the end of 2025, attempting to challenge and stabilize above 6000 points, presenting a pattern of “center of gravity shifting upward and fluctuating upward”. The height and duration of the rise will directly depend on the strength of exports.
3. Pessimistic scenario: domestic and foreign demand resonance is weak, and prices are once again bottoming out
The release of domestic stock projects fell short of expectations, while the export market significantly shrank, creating a dual pressure of internal and external demand. The rebound at the end of 2025 has been proven to be a short-lived replenishment market. Under the comprehensive contraction of demand, prices will rebound and then turn downwards again, testing and possibly falling below the low point of 2025 (5412.50), and the industry will enter a more painful stage of capacity clearance.
Overall judgment: In 2026, the demand side of the melamine market is unlikely to provide strong unilateral upward momentum, but it is expected to build a “bottom and top” range. It is difficult for the price to return to the high level at the beginning of 2025, but the possibility of a deep drop below the low point of 2025 is also reduced due to policy support.
Conclusion: The market in 2026 is likely to unfold in a game between “domestic bottoming demand” and “overseas export variables”. The most likely path to occur is the interval oscillation under the baseline scenario. Market participants should closely monitor changes in export data, which will be the key to breaking the volatile pattern and determining the direction of the market.

Silver skyrockets

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the silver market quoted 16320 yuan/kg in the morning session on December 23, 2025, an increase of 21.66% compared to the average silver market price of 13414 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (December 1); The average price of silver market at the beginning of the year (January 1st) was 7450 yuan/kg, an increase of 119.06%.
Multi factor resonance supports the surge of silver prices
The recent surge is the result of multiple factors resonating, including rigid constraints on the supply side, positive expectations on the demand side, and drivers of monetary policy and macro expectations. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. Rigid constraints on the supply side:
Mineral supply is limited: about 70% of global silver is associated minerals (copper, gold, lead and zinc, and other main mineral by-products), with weak independent expansion momentum and long cycles. In 2024, mineral silver production reached 820 million ounces, a significant decline from the peak, and there is no hope for new production capacity to be added in 2025.
Supply lag in recycling: The growth of recycled silver cannot keep up with the demand growth rate. The global supply gap has lasted for five consecutive years, with a shortfall of about 95 million ounces by 2025. Inventory has dropped to a low level that can only cover 1.2 months of consumption.
Strategic hoarding intensifies tension: The United States has included silver in its key mineral list, causing traders to hoard and deliver, pushing up leasing rates and spot premiums. London’s deliverable inventory has dropped to a ten-year low, triggering an emergency “airplane silver” transport.
2. Expectations on the demand side are positive:
Industrial demand accounts for over 60%, with photovoltaics (TOPCon/heterojunction cell silver consumption increase), new energy vehicles, and AI data centers being the core engines. By 2025, photovoltaic silver consumption will account for nearly 40% of total industrial demand.
The surge in investment demand: Silver ETFs continue to experience net inflows (iShares Silver ETF holdings have risen by over 6% in recent months), and the recovery of the gold silver ratio and the bull market in gold have driven funds to shift towards high elasticity silver, forming a buying resonance.
Among them, investment demand is the main driving factor for the rapid rise. The speculative atmosphere is strong.
3. Monetary policy and macroeconomic expectations driving:
Expectations of Fed interest rate cuts are heating up: Non farm and retail sales data weakened in November, the Fed’s interest rate meeting in December was dovish, and the market is betting on continued interest rate cuts in 2026. The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in real interest rates will lower the holding cost of interest free silver and enhance its relative attractiveness.
Risk aversion and credit hedging: High global debt, rising currency depreciation risks, geopolitical tensions (such as US Venezuela relations), and concerns about financial stability are driving funds to increase their allocation of silver as a “cheap gold substitute”.
Be cautious and bullish in the short term in the future market
This surge is the result of the resonance of multiple factors such as industrial demand, supply and demand patterns, financial policies, and capital inflows. In the future, silver prices may face high volatility and pullback risks in the short term, while in the medium to long term, they are likely to maintain an upward trend due to fundamental support.

According to the Business Society’s commodity market analysis system, as the end of 2025 approaches, the domestic PP market remains weak and consolidating, with prices for various grades mostly declining rather than rising. As of December 22, the benchmark quoted price for PP filament production was 6,253.33 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year change of -2.39%.

price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In the early stages, the new round of production increases by OPEC+ intensified industry concerns about crude oil oversupply. Recently, due to low price levels and the approaching holiday season, seasonal demand has risen, leading to a rebound in international oil prices. For propylene, inventories were at historically low levels earlier, with tightened supply and elevated spot prices. By mid-month, prices had risen to a阶段性 high, but as the favorable factors gradually diminished, spot prices have since declined. In the case of propane, overseas prices remain high, and port cargo prices are also elevated, with overall prices remaining firm. Overall, the price trends of PP raw materials show mixed performance, but the cost support for PP remains relatively adequate.
Supply side:
In the latter half of December, domestic PP enterprises largely balanced between resuming production and maintenance, with limited overall changes in operating rates. As of the time of writing, the industry’s total load level stands at approximately 79%, showing minimal deviation from the beginning of the month. The current weekly average total output is close to 820,000 tons, while inventory levels remain around 800,000 tons, keeping market supply ample. However, multiple maintenance plans are set to be implemented in the near future, leading to an expected slight decline in production. Overall, the supply side provides only moderate support to spot prices.
Demand side:
Domestic economic meetings released neutral information, falling short of market expectations and failing to significantly boost operator sentiment. In the e-commerce sector, there is some pull on consumption for packaging and household appliances, but the overall trading atmosphere in the industry remains limited. Meanwhile, the impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and trade protectionism persists, dragging down the export of finished products and leaving downstream enterprises with suboptimal production loads. Currently, the finished product market for polypropylene (PP) end-use enterprises is lukewarm, with slower raw material digestion. As the year draws to a close, end-use enterprises show low willingness to build inventories, while midstream players increasingly engage in price concessions to reduce stockpiles. The demand momentum struggles to support spot PP prices.
Market Outlook
In late December, domestic PP market prices remained weak and fluctuated. From a fundamental perspective, upstream raw material prices were mostly rising, providing moderate support for PP. Industry load rates stabilized at high levels, while consumption improvements were limited. With large-scale production capacity, the supply surplus remains unchanged, and there is little incentive for further inventory digestion. PP market trends are expected to continue adjusting.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices first fell and then rose this week. As of the 19th, copper prices were reported at 92496.67 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the beginning of the week, 25.28% from the beginning of the year, and 25.1% year-on-year.
According to the weekly chart of Shengyi Society, copper prices have risen slightly this week, with a decrease of 4 and an increase of 7 in the past three months.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 164275 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.96% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, after the release of November employment data in the United States, market sentiment quickly turned optimistic, with 64000 new jobs added. Although it exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021. The market’s expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has driven up metal prices, as lower borrowing costs are conducive to stimulating the economy and metal demand.
Supply side: Supply is facing shortage pressure. The joint negotiation group for Chinese copper raw materials has released a signal to reduce mining capacity by 10%, resulting in a significant increase in the cancellation of warehouse receipts for copper inventory on the London Metal Exchange. The Deutsche Bank report states that 2025 will be a “severely disrupted year”, with major copper producers lowering their production expectations and expecting a reduction of approximately 300000 tons in copper production by 2026. In addition, the hoarding of copper by the United States is also exacerbating the tense situation of global copper supply. The United States is hoarding copper inventory due to arbitrage opportunities, and the phenomenon of physical copper hoarding is gradually eroding international copper supply, especially the inventory situation on the London Metal Exchange is becoming increasingly tight.
On the demand side: The rapid rise in copper prices has brought enormous cost pressure to downstream manufacturing industries. Air conditioning manufacturing companies are the first to bear the brunt, and recently some companies have announced price increases. In addition, 19 air conditioning companies jointly announced their accession to the self regulatory convention on aluminum reinforcement applications, hoping to resolve cost pressures through “aluminum replacing copper”.
In summary, Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will increase from $10650/ton to $11400/ton in 2026; Citigroup is more aggressive, predicting that copper prices will exceed $13000/ton in early 2026 and may even reach $15000/ton in the second quarter of next year. ING commodity strategist Ava Mante said that the fundamentals of the copper market remain tight, with an expected average copper price of $11500 per ton in 2026, and may reach a peak of nearly $12000 in the second quarter. The market is concerned that a large influx of copper into the United States may preemptively respond to potential import tariffs, which could exacerbate copper shortages in other regions; The slowdown in global economic growth or the escalation of trade frictions may also suppress copper demand, leading to a decline in copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 17th, the average market price of acetic acid was 2660 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.33 yuan/ton or 0.88% compared to the price of 2636.67 yuan/ton on December 10th.

Recently (12.10-12.17), the domestic acetic acid market has continued to operate strongly. In terms of supply, the faulty devices are gradually recovering, and the operating rate of acetic acid has slightly increased compared to last week. Some companies’ inventory fluctuates narrowly, and the overall spot supply pressure in the market is not high. Downstream markets remain stable and buy according to demand. The market sentiment is optimistic, and the price of acetic acid is running steadily.
Recently, the raw material methanol market has been operating strongly. As of the 17th, the average price in the domestic market was 2126 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.21% compared to the price of 2080 yuan/ton on December 10th. The domestic methanol market is supported by shipping costs, with local prices showing strong performance. Supply pressure in the port market still exists, suppressing the rise of spot prices. At the same time, downstream demand is limited, and market trading is average, resulting in narrow fluctuations in the methanol market.
The downstream acetic anhydride market is relatively strong and rising. From December 10th to 17th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was raised from 4130 yuan/ton to 4170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.97%. The upstream acetic acid market is strong, and the cost of acetic anhydride continues to be favorable. Downstream production is stable, and entry into the market follows demand. The on-site support is relatively strong, and the price of acetic anhydride continues to rise during the cycle.
Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the recovery of domestic acetic acid plants is slow, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not high, the mentality of manufacturers continues to be optimistic, the downstream performance of the demand side is stable, and the fundamental support is good. It is expected that the acetic acid market will stabilize and operate in the later stage, and the market supply situation will be closely monitored in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of December 17th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 6900 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply of cyclohexane is sufficient, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. Downstream demand is limited, and inventory is running at a high level.
2、 Market analysis
Market wise: In 2025, the overall import and export volume of cyclohexane will be less than in 2024. The domestic cyclohexane supply is loose, with supply exceeding demand and inventory running at a high level, resulting in slow consumption. Currently, the cyclohexane inventory is sufficient to meet the domestic market demand. In 2025, the performance of the cyclohexane upstream and downstream industry chain market is poor, with dismal demand and insufficient purchasing atmosphere in downstream markets. The overall market demand is limited, and cyclohexane prices are showing a downward trend from a high level, with prices continuously hitting new lows in recent years. Currently, industry players are pessimistic and cautious in their operations.
Upstream pure benzene: Due to the influence of the international crude oil market, the pure benzene market is weakly consolidating and operating, and the cost side has limited support for the pure benzene market. In terms of prices, Sinopec’s East China pure benzene price is priced at 5300 yuan/ton, and North China pure benzene price is priced at 5190 yuan/ton. The weak operation of the Shandong market is the main focus of negotiations, and the on-site negotiation range is between 5150-5260 yuan/ton. Contract holders are considering a decrease in the number of imported goods arriving at the ship in the future, a slowdown in port inventory accumulation, and a positive attitude towards entering the market for replenishment. The overall market procurement atmosphere has improved, and the negotiation focus is relatively high.
In terms of demand, cyclohexane accounts for a relatively large proportion of consumption in China. With the improvement of product quality and production capacity, export volume has been increasing year by year. The demand for cyclohexane in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions has grown rapidly, providing a broad international market space for Chinese enterprises. Cyclohexane, also known as hexahydrobenzene, is a colorless liquid with a pungent odor. Insoluble in water, soluble in most organic solvents, highly flammable. It is generally used as a general solvent, chromatographic analysis standard substance, and for organic synthesis. It can be applied in resins, coatings, fats, paraffin oils, and can also be used to prepare organic compounds such as cyclohexanol and cyclohexanone,
3、 Future forecast
The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the cyclohexane industry has a high degree of concentration, with large enterprises dominating and intense market competition pressure. The price fluctuation range is limited, and the overall market supply and demand balance is expected to remain stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 6781 yuan/ton on December 9th and 6670 yuan/ton on December 15th, a decrease of 1.65%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8800 yuan/ton on December 9th and 8633 yuan/ton on December 15th, a decrease of 1.89%. The average price of HDPE (2426H) on December 9th was 7312 yuan/ton, and on December 15th it was 7162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.05%.

Polyethylene has been operating weakly recently. Manufacturers’ willingness to ship has increased, but downstream demand is weak. In order to actively reduce inventory, the market mainly offers discounted shipments, and quotations continue to decline. International crude oil prices have fallen due to market concerns about the continued risk of oversupply and insufficient cost support. The supply side is sufficient, the new device has been put into operation, and stable release of production volume has been achieved, resulting in a steady increase in output. The demand is in the off-season, with limited order growth and a focus on rigid procurement. The enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, and the overall downstream production rate has decreased. The demand for greenhouse film has entered the off-season, and the trading atmosphere in the packaging film industry is flat. Insufficient stimulation of terminal consumption. Recently, the futures market has been declining due to multiple negative factors, and it is expected that polyethylene will operate weakly.

Recently, the price of acetic anhydride has risen

According to the Business Society Commodity Market Analysis System, as of December 14, the price of acetic anhydride was 4,135 yuan per ton, up 2.61% from the 4,030 yuan per ton price on December 8. This week, acetic acid prices continued to rise, supported by strong cost pressures from acetic anhydride. On the supply side, some acetic anhydride production facilities were shut down for maintenance, leading to lower operating rates and reduced market supply. Downstream demand remained stable, with moderate support. Acetic anhydride manufacturers are optimistic, driving the price to rise stronger.
The acetic acid market continues to decline
According to the Acetic Acid Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 14, the price of acetic acid stood at 2,660 yuan per ton, up 1.40% from the 2,623.33 yuan per ton on December 8. The recovery of acetic acid production units under maintenance was slower than expected, resulting in limited market supply pressure. Manufacturers maintained low inventory levels, and there was strong sentiment for price support. Downstream demand remained stable, fostering a favorable trading atmosphere. The upward trend in acetic acid prices continued, positively impacting the acetic anhydride market.
Market Outlook
The acetic acid analyst at Business Society noted that the price trend of raw material acetic acid is relatively strong, with a positive market sentiment for acetic anhydride. On the supply side, the pressure on acetic anhydride market inventory has eased, and manufacturers are actively pushing for higher prices. Downstream production remains stable, and the fundamental outlook for acetic anhydride is generally favorable. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will maintain firm performance in the near future, with specific attention to upstream market developments.

I. Trend Analysis

According to data monitored by the Business Society, copper prices surged significantly this week. By the 12th, the price reached 93,903.33 yuan per ton, hitting a 15-year high. This marks a 2.6-fold increase from the low point in June 2016 and a nearly 27.19% rise year-to-date.
The piles of copper in U.S. warehouses are higher than mountains
The copper stockpiles in U.S. warehouses are higher than mountains, while factories in the rest of the world are nearly running out of supplies. The copper inventory at the U.S. Comex warehouse has surged to over 400,000 tons, a 300% spike from the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, in regions outside the U.S. that consume 90% of the world’s copper, inventory shortages have forced some factories to cut production. A global resource reallocation triggered by unilateral U.S. policies is unfolding. In February, the U.S. introduced measures likely to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imported copper by 2026. As soon as the policy was announced, traders rushed to secure supplies, diverting copper originally destined for Asia back to the U.S.
Mokorey plans to withdraw 40,000 tons of copper from the LME Asia warehouse
Swiss commodities trader Mercuria has notified its plans to withdraw over 40,000 tons of copper from warehouses in Asia at the London Metal Exchange (LME). This withdrawal will reduce the exchange’s inventory by more than half, potentially causing a severe shortage in the global copper market.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected
On December 10 local time, the Federal Reserve announced a scheduled 25-basis-point interest rate cut, marking the third reduction of the year. Starting Friday, the Fed resumed purchasing short-term treasury bonds, reigniting the expansion of its balance sheet. This move has heightened expectations for global liquidity easing, which is favorable for copper prices.
fundamentals
Global supply remains tight
Major mine production continues to be disrupted, compounded by the U.S. siphoning effect, which has led to a steady influx of copper inventory into the U.S. market, heightening concerns about supply shortages in non-U.S. regions. Leading market institutions remain optimistic, projecting that LME copper prices will remain above $11,000 per ton in 2026, potentially approaching $12,000 by year-end, while Shanghai copper prices are expected to near 96,000 yuan. Currently, global mines face numerous adjustments, with short-term supply growth constrained, low ore grades, and significant challenges in investment and extraction.
Demand side
The global energy transition, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, and grid upgrades are accelerating the expansion of copper demand, with promising prospects for demand and a further widening supply gap. Downstream players are adopting a wait-and-see approach amid high prices, while mandatory procurement and weekend restocking needs remain limited, resulting in insufficient market buying interest.
LME copper inventory falls
Recently, LME copper inventories experienced a slight decline. As of the 12th, LME copper inventories stood at 158,375 tons, down 3.75% from the beginning of the week.
Market Outlook:

In summary, on the raw material side, the copper concentrate processing fee index has fallen again. Chile has raised the premium for copper spot prices in China, and domestic CSPT members will reduce copper mining capacity by 10% next year, exacerbating market concerns about tight copper supply. On the demand side, supported by expectations of overseas interest rate cuts and raw material costs, copper prices remain strong. In the short term, high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment, and downstream attitudes have become cautious, mainly focusing on restocking for essential needs. The supply gap in non US regions continues to widen, with domestic copper inventories continuing to decline and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. However, high prices limit downstream procurement, and it is expected that copper prices will still have room for upward movement, with strong volatility.