Market situation

Recently, the melamine market has indeed faced the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand, leading to overall downward pressure on the market. However, in the long run, these negative factors will inevitably have a profound impact on the market. Affected by both sluggish demand and oversupply, the market price of melamine is showing a downward trend. As of July 14th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5862.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% compared to the beginning of this month (5887.50 yuan/ton).
Downstream demand is sluggish: Downstream industries related to melamine, such as sheet metal and impregnation, have seen a decrease in operating load, resulting in an overall shortage of demand for melamine.
The real estate industry, as one of the important application areas of melamine, continues to be sluggish, with new construction areas and development investments continuing to decline, further weakening market demand.
Upstream raw material prices: The domestic urea market continues to operate in a stable, medium to strong trend, with some manufacturers offering slightly higher prices. The overall market transaction center has shifted upward, but the melamine market has not effectively boosted market demand. As of July 14th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1861.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.10% compared to the beginning of this month (1823.00 yuan/ton).
At present, the market atmosphere for melamine is average, and the market is operating weakly and steadily. Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. In the foreseeable future, with the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the supply and demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply, and the trend of low prices is difficult to change.
The export situation is severe: the export market for melamine is also facing severe challenges. On the one hand, the international market competition is fierce, and Chinese products need to face competition from other countries and regions; On the other hand, the international trade environment is complex and ever-changing, and uncertain factors such as trade barriers and technical barriers may affect the export of melamine.
Future prospects
With the gradual release of new production capacity and the gradual recovery of downstream demand (although currently sluggish), the supply-demand relationship in the melamine market is expected to be adjusted to some extent in the future. However, in the short term, the market may still face pressure from oversupply.
Low price operation: Affected by the increase in supply and weak demand, the market price of melamine is expected to continue to operate at a low level. The specific price trend still needs to be judged based on market dynamics and changes in supply and demand relationships.
In summary, the current melamine market is indeed facing the dilemma of negative sentiment and sluggish demand. However, by strictly controlling production capacity, improving product quality, expanding application areas, and strengthening international cooperation, enterprises can actively respond to market challenges and achieve sustainable development.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 14th, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9140 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1st (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 8730 yuan/ton), the price increased by 410 yuan/ton, a 4.70% increase.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early July, the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 showed a steady upward trend overall. In the first ten days, the spot market price of silicon metal # 441 in many regions of China has been continuously adjusted upwards, with a cumulative adjustment range of around 300-500 yuan/ton. As of July 14th, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 9200-9300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 9000-9200 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 9200-9400 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is 9000-9200 yuan/ton, in Sichuan it is 8600-8800 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it is 9400-9600 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of raw material costs: Currently, the overall operation of the silica market is stable, and some mines have certain supply pressure. Currently, the ex factory price of high-grade silica mines in Inner Mongolia is referred to as 300-330 yuan/ton, the ex factory price of high-grade silica mines in Hubei is referred to as 290-330 yuan/ton, the ex factory price of low-grade silica mines in Jiangxi is referred to as 310-320 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of high-grade silica mines is referred to as around 380-420 yuan/ton.
In terms of supply and production: In July, Yunnan region entered a period of abundant water, and some metal silicon production capacity resumed. The metal silicon production in Sichuan Yunnan region is also expected to increase. Large factories in the north have reduced production, but most silicon companies have stable production. The overall production of metal silicon has increased, but the overall supply pressure is not great, and the supply side provides certain support to the market.
In terms of demand: As we enter July, the overall production of downstream organic silicon and polycrystalline markets for metallic silicon has slightly increased, and the demand for raw material metallic silicon has also improved. The demand side has provided enhanced support to the metallic silicon market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

According to price data, the price of polyester bottle flakes (PET) continued its weak downward trend this week, dropping from 6012 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5960 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly decline of 0.87%.

In terms of cost, the decline in crude oil prices, OPEC+production expectations, and uncertainty about US tariff policies have led to Brent crude oil falling to $68.64 per barrel (-2.21% MoM), directly dragging PTA spot prices down to $4870 per ton and ethylene glycol falling below $4400 per ton.
In terms of supply and demand, the weekly production decreased to 327000 tons (month on month -2.72 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 71.5% (month on month -5.9 percentage points), mainly due to the joint production reduction of 20% by top enterprises such as Wankai and Yisheng. Despite the contraction of supply, the industry’s inventory days remained at a high level of 16-18 days, and sufficient spot circulation continued to suppress price rebound. The operating rate of soft drinks remains at 80% -90%, with high inventory of end products (such as 23.64 days in the finished product warehouse of textile enterprises), and only sporadic small orders for replenishment, without the motivation to chase price increases.
Overall, Shengyi Society believes that the polyester bottle chip market is in a triple game stage of weak cost support, strong supply contraction, and stable demand growth. If crude oil continues to decline or demand weakens, it may explore the support level of 5800 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 7486 yuan/ton on July 1st and 7415 yuan/ton on July 10th, a decrease of 0.96%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 9550 yuan/ton on July 1st and 9516 yuan/ton on July 10th, a decrease of 0.35%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8112 yuan/ton on July 1st and 8070 yuan/ton on July 10th, a decrease of 0.52%.

Since July, the polyethylene market has mainly fluctuated and operated weakly. The market is not driven by effective positive news, and the market trend is not good. There are still expectations of an increase in the supply side, with the restart of maintenance equipment in the early stage and the gradual production of equipment. According to data statistics, it is expected that a production capacity of 3.1 million tons per year will be put into operation in the third and fourth quarters, and the pressure on the supply side is still ongoing. In July, the demand for agricultural film was in the off-season, and most enterprises were in a state of shutdown. The operating rate remained low, which dragged down the polyethylene market on the demand side. Positive macro policy news has boosted the polyethylene market.
Supply side pressure remains; The demand side is in the traditional off-season, and downstream factories are operating at a low level; With the support of domestic policies, it is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate in a narrow and weak range.

Recently (7.1-7.9), the butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 9th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 11690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.10% from 11820 yuan/ton on the 1st. The price of raw material butadiene fluctuated slightly lower, but the cost of butadiene rubber still has support; The production of butadiene rubber is basically stable; Downstream semi steel tire production has slightly decreased, providing weak support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of July 9th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 11550-11900 yuan/ton.

Recently (7.1-7.9), the price of butadiene has been weak and fluctuating, and the cost of butadiene rubber continues to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 9th, the price of butadiene was 8966 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% from 9000 yuan/ton on July 1st.
Recently (7.1-7.9), the domestic Shunding plant has been operating steadily at around 6.70%, but there are plans to restart 200000 ton plants from Xinke and Yanshan in the later stage, resulting in a slight increase in supply pressure.
Demand side: Recently (7.1-7.9), the production of downstream semi steel tires has slightly decreased, providing strong support for the demand in the butadiene rubber market. As of July 4th, the production of semi steel tires by domestic tire companies has slightly decreased to around 7.0%; Around 6.40% of all steel tire production in Shandong tire enterprises has started..
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will consolidate weakly, and the cost of butadiene rubber will still be supported; Downstream semi steel tire production has slightly decreased, with weak supply and demand. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding rubber market will be mainly weak and volatile in the later period.

Price trend: first rising and then falling, short-term pressure (7.1-7.8)
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 8th, spot electrolytic nickel was reported at 121450 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.21% and a year-on-year decline of 11.98%, continuing to fluctuate weakly.

Reason for fluctuation:
Rising first: The disturbance of Indonesia’s nickel ore quota policy (planned to be shortened to 1 year, and later the association strives to maintain it for 3 years), coupled with the decline in LME and domestic inventories, provides short-term support for the rebound of nickel prices.
Backward decline: Increased macro risk aversion (Trump tariff threat)+weak demand (stainless steel off-season, new energy substitution effect), suppressing rebound momentum.
Macro perspective: long and short intertwined, dominated by Federal Reserve policies and trade risks
Domestically:
The manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7% (two consecutive months of recovery), and the new orders index returned to the expansion range, indicating a marginal improvement in the manufacturing outlook, but it has not yet been transmitted to nickel demand.
The China Europe Strategic Dialogue is based on cooperation and has not yet had a direct impact on nickel trade.
Overseas:
The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has cooled down: June’s non farm payroll data exceeded expectations (adding 147000 people and reducing the unemployment rate to 4.1%), traders reduced their bets on interest rate cuts in July and September, and the strengthening of the US dollar suppressed metal prices.
Trump’s tariff threat: plans to impose 25% -40% tariffs on multiple countries (including nickel rich countries such as Indonesia and South Africa), which will take effect on August 1st. Market risk aversion is heating up, and the macro outlook is bearish on nickel prices. Indonesia has stated that as part of its tariff negotiations with the United States, it has proposed joint investment in a key mineral project. Involving the electric vehicle ecosystem related to nickel and other materials.
Supply side: Indonesian policy disturbance+loose mining side, cost decline
Indonesia’s nickel ore quota policy game: The government plans to shorten the quota cycle from 3 years to 1 year, but the Association of Nickel Miners (APNI) strongly opposes and demands to maintain it for 3 years. Policy uncertainty will support nickel prices in the short term.
Philippine nickel ore supply increases: With the end of the rainy season, shipments have rebounded and nickel ore inventories have accumulated at Chinese ports.
Cost reduction: Indonesia’s nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in July decreased by 1.81% -1.84%. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has weakened (NI1.3% CIF 45-47 US dollars/wet ton, NI1.5% CIF 58-61 US dollars/wet ton), and the marginal profit margin of smelting has improved.
Inventory changes: LME nickel inventory decreased by 1386 tons to 204620 tons during the cycle, and domestic Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 388 tons to 20833 tons during the cycle. Global explicit inventory has decreased, but the surplus pattern has not changed.
Demand side: Weakness in both lines, obvious off-season characteristics
Stainless steel (accounting for over 70% of nickel demand):
Low season suppression: The high temperature in July suppressed construction and manufacturing activities, resulting in slow depletion of social inventory.

Export decline: Stainless steel exports in May decreased by 2.56% month on month and 4.66% year-on-year (due to the impact of anti-dumping policies).
Weak price rebound: On July 8th, the benchmark price of stainless steel was 12887.5 yuan/ton (up 0.88% weekly), but due to the expectation of steel mills reducing production, there is limited support for nickel demand.
New energy (ternary battery):
Policy benefits: Subsidies for new energy vehicles continue or stimulate demand for ternary batteries, but the increase in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate LFP batteries (cost advantage) weakens nickel consumption growth.
Market outlook: weak oscillation, central downward shift
Short term (July): Indonesia’s policy disturbance, inventory decline, and cost support have boosted prices, but the off-season demand and oversupply have hindered the upward trend. It is expected that nickel prices will remain within a range of fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on July 7th, the polyester filament market continued its promotion mode, and prices showed an overall downward trend. POY (150D/48F), a mainstream polyester filament factory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, quoted prices between 6750-7050 yuan/ton, DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) between 8000-8400 yuan/ton, and FDY (150D/96F) between 7050-7300 yuan/ton.

Entering July, the terminal textile market entered the traditional off-season of demand, with a reduction in foreign trade orders. The overall production and sales rate of polyester filament was 30% -40%, a decrease of 10% compared to the average production and sales rate at the end of June. At the beginning of July, the inventory of polyester filament increased slightly, and the industry average inventory level was around 24 days, an increase of 18% compared to the end of June. Among them, POY increased significantly, rising 4-5 days compared to the end of June. Under the imbalance of supply and demand, the polyester filament market continues to be weak.
From the supply side, the previous shutdown reduction devices have gradually restarted and heated up. Currently, the average capacity utilization rate of the polyester filament industry has increased to over 90%, and the supply has significantly increased. On the demand side, the terminal demand is sluggish, the purchasing enthusiasm of users is not high, the inventory of conventional fabrics is high, and the production enthusiasm of textile production enterprises is not high, continuing to reduce negative pressure and avoid risks. In addition, the high temperature weather has also affected the normal operation of the downstream elastic textile industry, further suppressing the demand for polyester filament.
Business Society believes that today’s polyester filament market continues to bottom out under the triple pressure of cost collapse, high inventory, and off-season demand, and structural opportunities only exist in high-end segmented varieties. The short-term decline has not stopped, and prices are running weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province rose slightly this week (6.30-7.4), with an average market price of 16175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16250 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.46%.

Starting from July this week, magnesium prices have remained stable and rebounded, with a continuous upward trend during the week and a stalemate over the weekend, resulting in a slight decline in prices.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, due to the advantage of small spot inventory, factories continue to maintain a willingness to raise prices, and low-priced goods are extremely scarce in the market. Some companies have explicitly stated that they will not ship when the price is below 16200 yuan/ton, and choose to observe changes in the market situation.
On the demand side, although downstream demand has shown some signs of improvement, it still maintains a cautious procurement pace. Downstream customers and intermediaries mainly carry out small-scale replenishment operations based on rigid demand, and the overall procurement volume has achieved moderate growth this week.
Raw material end
The price of ferrosilicon remains stable and unchanged, while the price of blue charcoal remains basically stable. The coal market price shows a slight decline, and the overall cost did not show significant changes this week.
comprehensive analysis
In the near future, magnesium prices are expected to maintain a strong trend, showing small fluctuations within a narrow range, and there will be no significant price fluctuations overall.

Since the beginning of this year, the melamine market has suffered a Waterloo, with prices continuously bottoming out. As of June 30th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5875.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the beginning of this month (5950.00 yuan/ton), setting a new record for the lowest price of the year. Compared to the same period last year (when the highest price exceeded 7500/ton), the current price has decreased by 15.94%. In June, it fell below 6000 yuan. The core driving force behind this deep correction is undoubtedly the fundamental shift in the market supply and demand pattern.

Production cost impact
In the first half of this year, the high profit margin and stable operation of the melamine industry greatly stimulated production enthusiasm. Manufacturers have increased their operating rates, resulting in a rise in production and a significant increase in net market supply. Especially in June, social inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level. However, in sharp contrast to the hot demand on the supply side is the weakness of downstream demand. As the main consumer sector, the artificial board industry has shown a sluggish performance in the entire industry chain, and the operating rate of domestic board companies has also remained low. This makes the demand for melamine appear particularly flat.
As the core raw material of melamine, the price fluctuation of urea directly affects the market trend. The volatile decline in melamine prices in June was largely due to the cost collapse of urea – dragged down by weakened terminal demand and international oil prices. As of July 1st, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1823.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.65% compared to the beginning of last month (1892.00 yuan/ton). This not only directly lowers the production cost line of melamine, but also exacerbates the downward pressure on its price through market expectations transmission
Export is the focus of demand increment
In 2025, the cumulative monthly export of melamine from January to May will be 263100 tons (+0.34% year-on-year), with an estimated annual total of 302200 tons.
Annual average urea price predicted to be lower than the first half of the year
Preliminary judgment shows that the average price of domestic urea (Shandong small and medium-sized granules) in the second half of the year will be lower than that in the first half, and the core operating range may be between 170-2100. Market driven by stages: loose supply and demand in July and August may lead to a stepped decline; Benefiting from local production restrictions and light storage, there may be a slight rebound in September and October; At the end of the year (November December), under the influence of multiple uncertain factors (exports, light storage, gas head, macro, and unexpected events), price volatility increased and fluctuated repeatedly. Supply and demand forecast for the second half of the year
With the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year, the melamine industry’s production capacity may reach 220 tons per year by 2025.
The trend of loosening real estate policies in the second half of the year may continue, but the significant increase in incremental demand still needs to wait. Specific demand rhythm: The off-season from July to August restricts the recovery of domestic demand; After September, with the end of the off-season, melamine consumption is expected to increase.

Based on comprehensive supply and demand, the melamine market is unlikely to see a significant rebound in the second half of the year. July: The concentrated maintenance of faults supported the price increase in the first half of the month, and the market weakened in the second half with the recovery of equipment. August: Prices may remain stable under the support of major repairs in Xinjiang. September October: Benefiting from improved demand and rising prices of urea raw materials, the market is expected to rise. November December: As the domestic Spring Festival approaches, demand is decreasing, but export plans are being supported by pre production or incremental growth. The mainstream ex factory price range is expected to be between 5400-6300 yuan/ton in the second half of the year.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on July 3rd, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 8850 yuan/ton. Compared to June 29th (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 8640 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 210 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 has shown an overall upward trend this week. During the week, the spot market price of silicon metal was generally adjusted upwards, with reference to 8300-8400 yuan/ton for the 553 # market price in the East China region, with an increase of 200-300 yuan/ton during the week; The market price of Metal Silicon 441 # in the East China region is based on 8800-8900 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 300-400 yuan/ton. The market price of Metal Silicon 441 in the Huangpu Port region is based on around 8800-8900 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 200 yuan/ton. The market price of metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin area is based on 8700~8800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 300-400 yuan/ton.
Fundamental information
In terms of supply and production: In June, the reference production of silicon metal was around 327600 tons, with an increase in production. In July, we entered a period of abundant water supply. Although a small portion of production capacity resumed in Yunnan and southwestern regions, the overall supply of silicon metal decreased due to reduced production in Xinjiang alone.
In terms of demand: Currently, the demand for metallic silicon remains mainly driven by rigid procurement, and there has been a slight increase in downstream polycrystalline silicon production, which may boost future demand.
Market analysis in the future
Currently, the trading in the metal silicon spot market is moderate, and the supply and demand transmission performance is still good. The metal silicon data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon spot market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.