Silver prices fell sharply in June

On May 29, 2026, the silver market quoted 14185.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 21.86% from the spot price of 18154.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (6.1).
The general logic of silver operation in June is as follows:
The sharp drop in silver prices this month is due to the resonance of multiple factors, including the reversal of expectations of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the strengthening of the US dollar and bond yields, the retreat of safe haven funds, the stampede of speculative funds, and the weakening of industrial demand. The main reason is that the strong inflation and employment data in the United States have raised expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The hawkish signals released at the interest rate meeting have driven the real interest rates of US bonds and the US dollar index to rise simultaneously, reducing the attractiveness of interest free precious metals; Combined with the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the concentration of safe haven funds leaving the market, the previous crowding of long positions triggered a stop loss stampede. At the same time, the slowdown in the growth of silver demand for photovoltaics weakened the support of industrial fundamentals. Silver itself has greater volatility elasticity than gold, and the decline is further amplified under the linkage of internal and external markets.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy expectations have completely reversed
Expected to fully switch from “interest rate cuts” to “interest rate hikes”; At the beginning of the year, the market bet on multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, which was the core driving force behind the surge in silver prices in the first half of the year; However, the stickiness of US CPI and PCE inflation data in May and June exceeded expectations, and the resilience of non farm employment was extremely strong, with inflation falling short of the target.
On June 17th, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting released hawkish signals; The interest rate remains unchanged at 3.5% -3.75%, but the dot matrix chart raises the annual interest rate expectation, with nearly half of officials expecting a rate hike within 2026; Walsh made it clear that anti inflation should be prioritized and liquidity should be tightened, and deleted the forward-looking wording of interest rate cuts.
Price significantly based on the probability of interest rate hikes; According to data from the Zhishang Exchange, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December has risen to over 86%, completely ending the logic of interest rate cuts.
The rise in real interest rates suppresses silver; Silver is an interest free asset, with a significant increase in nominal and real yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds. The opportunity cost of holding silver has skyrocketed, and funds have shifted from precious metals to fixed income assets in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, putting immense pressure on silver prices.
Middle East geopolitical easing and collective escape of safe haven funds
In June, the US Iran conflict cooled down, and both sides reached a memorandum of understanding. The risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz was lifted, and the geopolitical panic premium quickly dissipated; In the first half of the year, a large amount of safe haven speculative funds flowed into gold and silver for hedging. After the risk landed, they concentrated on redeeming, selling and leaving, and gold and silver weakened synchronously.
The marginal weakening of industrial demand cannot offset macroeconomic pressures due to fundamental factors
The core industrial demand for silver comes from the photovoltaic industry. Currently, the photovoltaic industry is generally promoting silver reduction and silver substitution technologies, resulting in a continuous decline in silver consumption per unit of photovoltaic power. The growth rate of silver demand for photovoltaic power has slowed down and the increment is lower than expected; Although there has been an annual gap in global silver supply and demand for the sixth consecutive year, the market circulation stock is extremely large, and the short-term supply and demand gap cannot withstand the selling pressure brought by macro monetary policies. It can only support long-term prices and cannot prevent short-term sharp declines.
Silver’s high speculative attribute breaks through and experiences a stampede like sharp drop

The fluctuation range of silver is usually 1.5-2 times that of gold, and the long positions are extremely crowded in the early stage; In the early stage, long positions gained substantial profits. After the price fell below the key support level, programmed stop loss, long kill, and long stampede were triggered, and concentrated selling amplified the decline; COMEX’s net long positions in silver speculation have rapidly fallen from historical highs, while ETFs continue to reduce their holdings, leading to negative feedback and a decline in fund outflows.

In June 2026, the overall market situation of domestic antimony ingots continued to weaken, with the price center continuously shifting downwards. The trading atmosphere in the market was quiet, and both domestic and foreign markets were running weakly. The industry as a whole was in a downward trend during the off-season, and there was a clear game of long and short in the market. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market continued to decline in June 2026, with an average market price of 149500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 123500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a cumulative decline of 17.39% throughout the month.

Supply side:
Strict total quantity control policies are implemented in domestic antimony mining, and environmental security checks are carried out on a regular basis. Local mining is restricted, and the release of primary antimony production capacity is limited, resulting in a long-term overall tight supply of antimony resources in China. However, there has been a significant change in the overseas raw material circulation pattern this month, with Thailand’s export volume of antimony raw materials to China sharply decreasing, and the previously high export volume falling sharply. The impact of the reduction in raw material supply is gradually lagging behind, but the country’s import volume of raw materials from Myanmar has not significantly declined, and the short-term raw material supply gap has not yet been fully reflected. At the same time, there has been a continuous increase in the inflow of antimony raw materials from Africa, which to some extent offsets the impact of tightening overseas supply. The overall supply of raw materials by domestic smelting enterprises is still acceptable, production has remained stable, and the market spot circulation supply is sufficient. Coupled with the market price continuously approaching the production cost line, the low-priced circulation of goods in the market has increased, highlighting the overall loose supply situation.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. June is the off-season for traditional consumption of antimony products, and the overall market consumption atmosphere is sluggish, with weak overall support for demand
Antimony oxide: The downstream market performance of traditional antimony oxide is weak, and the overall production of the flame retardant industry is insufficient. The price of bromine based flame retardants is low, and the industry orders are relatively few. The purchasing enthusiasm of end manufacturers is sluggish, and most of them purchase in small quantities according to demand. The overall stocking willingness is weak, and market transactions are very flat.
Photovoltaics: The photovoltaic field is an emerging demand growth point for antimony ingots, mainly used for photovoltaic glass production. In June, the demand in the photovoltaic field weakened synchronously, and the production pace of photovoltaic glass enterprises slowed down. The daily melting volume continued to decrease, and the overall pressure of the industry to reduce inventory was too high. Enterprises strictly controlled the amount of raw material procurement, and the purchasing intensity of antimony related raw materials continued to decline.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the off-season pattern of the industry has not yet ended, and the pace of downstream demand recovery is slow. Coupled with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, the price of antimony ingots still lacks strong upward momentum, and the market is likely to continue a weak and volatile trend at a low level. There is still room for slight downward price exploration. As the off-season gradually comes to an end, the operating rates of major downstream industries are expected to steadily rebound, and traditional consumer demand will gradually be released, driving the concentrated release of market demand procurement. In terms of supply, the lagging impact of overseas raw material reduction will gradually become prominent, and the later tightening of raw material sources will provide substantial support to the market. Overall, the antimony market is unlikely to change its weak pattern in the short term, with a focus on bottoming out and consolidation. When the demand side recovers substantially and overseas supply tightens, the antimony ingot market is expected to gradually stop falling and stabilize from late June to the third quarter, ushering in a trend of stabilization and recovery.

This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an average market price of 423750 yuan/ton on June 17th and 395620 yuan/ton as of June 24th, a decrease of 6.64%.

Since June 2026, Shanghai tin has experienced a sustained decline. On June 8th, the main contract of Shanghai tin fell 6.74%, closing at 398000 yuan/ton; On June 23rd, it fell again by 4.1%; On June 24th, it fell 3.64% and closed at 395250 yuan/ton. This round of decline is the result of multiple factors resonating in the same time window.
Macroscopic perspective
The macro level constitutes the main suppressive force. The non farm payroll data for May in the United States exceeded expectations and was strong. Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike sharply increased, and the US dollar index hit a 13 month high, putting overall pressure on US dollar denominated base metals. At the same time, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced two rounds of sharp declines, directly impacting the demand expectations for “computing power metals”, and the AI narrative that had previously supported the strengthening of tin prices was temporarily shaken.
Supply and demand side: intertwining long and short positions
On the supply side, tin concentrate imports increased by 17% month on month in May, breaking Myanmar’s expectations for resuming production. The continuous increase in processing fees indicates a easing of raw material shortages; However, LME tin inventory is only 8825 tons, and the previous futures inventory is 9286 tons, both at historically low levels, with extremely fragile supply elasticity, forming the core support at the bottom. The demand side is dragged down by the traditional off-season consumption, and downstream procurement is cautious.
Inventory end
Inventory is at a historically low level: LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange are both reducing inventory in the same direction, and global explicit tin inventory has fallen to a historically low level. At such a low inventory level, any supply side disturbance could trigger a rebound.
comprehensive analysis
All technical indicators are pointing towards the bearish direction, with the mean difference in the “negative expansion” stage. The acceleration of the decline is evident, and there is no signal of a stop to the decline yet. The focus below is on the integer level of 380000 yuan/ton and the support of 375000 yuan/ton (near the 120 day moving average). The negative divergence rate between the current price and the short-term moving average has exceeded 8%, and the degree of short-term oversold has intensified. However, there is no turning point in the moving average, and the rebound still needs to wait. In the medium term, extremely low inventory and rigid supply constraints will provide bottom support for tin prices, and it is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations.

The hydrogen peroxide market weakened in June, with prices continuously falling. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 676 yuan/ton, and on June 24th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 626 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.39%.

Reasons for the decline in the hydrogen peroxide market
Supply side: Since June, manufacturers have restarted their equipment after maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate has remained high. Further increasing the market commodity volume has led to increased pressure on the supply side. At the same time, new facilities are expected to be put into operation in Sichuan and other places, which has intensified the market’s wait-and-see and bearish sentiment,
On the demand side: June belongs to the traditional off-season for pulp and printing and dyeing, and paper mills purchase according to demand, without the space for high volume during the peak season; The stable release of demand for environmental water treatment only provides a basic support, and cannot drive the market to strengthen. The downstream performance of the two main players is not ideal. Caprolactam: the industry is experiencing heavy losses, with a low operating rate, and only maintaining essential procurement of raw materials. Epoxy propane: Production is also at a low level, with average purchasing sentiment, unable to provide strong support for the market.
Technical Prediction of Business Society’s Hydrogen Peroxide Spot Analysis: From the price trend chart of Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide, it can be seen that the key indicator is that on May 10th, the 10 day moving average of hydrogen peroxide crossed the 20 day moving average, and hydrogen peroxide showed a downward trend. Starting from June, the 10 day and 20 day moving averages of hydrogen peroxide have been infinitely close, with the difference continuously narrowing, indicating a slowdown in the decline. The spot market for hydrogen peroxide weakened in June, with prices continuing to bottom out. The price of hydrogen peroxide is expected to rise in early July.
Auxiliary indicators: In late June, the price of hydrogen peroxide was at a mid low level on the 10th, mid low level on the 20th, and low level on the 30th, indicating that in the long run, the hydrogen peroxide market has strong upward momentum.
In summary, in July, the domestic hydrogen peroxide fundamentals remained dominated by negative factors, with supply pressure doubling and terminal demand weakening. From a technical perspective, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market was at a low level in June, and there is room for further growth in the future. At the beginning of July, the overall market for hydrogen peroxide fluctuated widely, with a high probability of increase, and the expected price is between 600 yuan/ton and 700 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

As of June 23rd, the price of high-performance power grade lithium iron phosphate is 61000 yuan/ton. Currently, the price of lithium iron phosphate is declining narrowly, with a 0.5% decrease compared to the same period last week. The industry average operating rate remains above 85%, and top integrated enterprises maintain 95% -100% full production.
2、 Market analysis
In terms of the market, the supply of goods is highly concentrated in the top integrated large factories, and there are very few available spot goods for small and medium-sized traders. There is a clear price stratification in the market, and the price difference continues to widen. Energy storage special materials are priced at 57000-60000 yuan/ton, conventional power type materials are priced at 6020-65300 yuan/ton, and high-pressure solid high-end fast charging materials are priced at 70000 yuan/ton. The premium of high-end goods continues to rise.
Upstream: The short-term slight decline is only followed by the pullback of lithium carbonate. Currently, the spot price of lithium carbonate has fallen by nearly 4000 yuan/ton within the day. Downstream point price purchases have slightly increased, driving a slight downward adjustment of conventional power lithium iron, but the decline is limited. The cost of phosphorus and sulfur has formed a strong bottom support, and there is no basis for a deep decline.
In terms of demand, the current market has formed a high prosperity pattern of new energy vehicles and energy storage dual wheel drive, with strong support for demand. The downstream market has obvious characteristics of “increasing demand and locking in orders”. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in China remains above 60%, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the power battery installation structure has exceeded 81%. In May, the domestic export of new energy vehicles was 446000, a year-on-year increase of 110.4%. The demand for low-priced lithium iron models in overseas ASEAN and European markets continues to increase, and the production schedule of top battery factories steadily increased in June. Commercial vehicles, heavy-duty trucks, and hybrid models continue to switch to the iron lithium route, with stable growth. In the first quarter of 2026, domestic energy storage lithium battery shipments surged by 139% year-on-year. Large scale energy storage on the grid side, industrial and commercial energy storage, overseas household storage, and AI data center backup batteries almost all use lithium iron phosphate. Centralized bidding for energy storage at home and abroad has been implemented, and energy storage material orders have increased by nearly 50% year-on-year, becoming the core increment driving iron lithium demand.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the short-term supply margin of upstream lithium carbonate has improved, and lithium salt prices may continue to experience a slight correction, which will slightly drag down the spot price of lithium iron. In mid to late July, some new low-end production capacity will gradually climb, and the supply of conventional energy storage materials will increase slightly. The cost support of lithium iron phosphate is insufficient, and it is expected that lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend in the short term.

Recently, the domestic market for 85% industrial grade formic acid has maintained a weak and volatile downward trend. As of June 22, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.45% compared to last week.
Market fundamentals: weak supply and demand sides, no positive support
Demand side: Traditional off-season consumption, weak follow-up on essential needs
At present, the downstream of formic acid has entered the traditional consumption off-season, and the operating rates of mainstream downstream application industries such as leather, medicine, pesticides, rubber, etc. have generally remained low. The finished product inventory of downstream factories is high, and the procurement mode is mainly based on small orders for urgent needs replenishment. The willingness to stock up in large quantities is extremely low. Even if the upstream shipment situation shows a slight month on month improvement after the price drop, it is only sporadic replenishment stimulated by low prices, and it is not a true rebound in terminal demand, which cannot fundamentally improve the weak market pattern. The weak demand side continues to suppress the upward space of formic acid prices.
Supply side: High inventory levels combined with delayed maintenance, resulting in high market supply pressure
On the one hand, at present, the overall inventory of the domestic formic acid industry remains above the median level. Under the normal operation of the equipment in the early stage, the supply of goods continues to accumulate, and the speed of inventory turnover from manufacturers is slow. The supply of spot goods is sufficient, and there is no confidence in upstream prices; On the other hand, the expected equipment maintenance and resumption plan in the industry is likely to be delayed, and the expectation of reduced market supply is dashed, further increasing the pressure on on-site spot supply.
Market forecast: formic acid prices still have downward potential

This week’s supply reduction combined with export pull, local spot resources are tight, and supplier quotations are overall pushed up, causing the acrylonitrile market to rise against the trend. As of June 18th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 10900-11100 yuan/ton, which is 700-800 yuan/ton higher than last week’s 10200-10300 yuan/ton; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 10850-10950 yuan/ton, an increase of 900-950 yuan/ton compared to last week’s 9900-10050 yuan/ton.

Market Overview: Recently, with the easing of the external situation, the prices of major energy products such as crude oil and propylene have continued to decline. However, acrylonitrile products stand out among them, with prices rising against the trend. This round of acrylonitrile price increase is mainly driven by favorable fundamentals – supply reduction combined with concentrated export shipments, resulting in tight spot resources, especially in the Shandong region where spot resources are tight and factory inventories are low. Under the tight supply of local spot resources, we are following up on demand buying, and overall supplier quotes are pushing up, with market quotes continuing to rise.
Supply side:
During the week, there were no fluctuations in the equipment, and major factories maintained low load operation. Currently, the overall capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry is less than 70%. According to statistics, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories this week (June 12-18) was 66.67%, unchanged from the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 77800 tons, which is the same as the previous cycle. The supply level remained low during the week, and at the same time, there was a significant decrease in inventory for some companies due to the follow-up of demand buying. According to statistics, as of June 17th, the total inventory was about 40000 tons, an increase of -60000 tons from last week.
Demand side:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 58.1%, unchanged from last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 83.54%, an increase of 9.54% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 52.62%, which was -0.66% compared to last week. Overall, there has been an increase in demand.
Cost aspect:
During the week, while the price of acrylonitrile rose rapidly, the price of its main raw material propylene also experienced a wide decline, resulting in a simultaneous weakening of cost support. Currently, the theoretical production profit of acrylonitrile has turned losses into profits. According to statistics, as of June 18th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 7300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1550 yuan/ton from last week’s 8850 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 10396 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 6.81%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was 315 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 1220 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, although the cost of raw materials has decreased, the current fundamental changes dominate the price trend. The inventory of various enterprises is still low, and manufacturers still have the conditions to raise prices. In addition, the demand for essential goods is still following suit. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will remain strong in the short term, but the theoretical production profit will be restored, which may lead to further changes in the planned equipment load reduction or parking situation. The upward space may continue to narrow.

Since June, the price trend of heavy rare earths in the market has been rising. Due to the increase in terminal demand, market activity has gradually increased, and trading has improved compared to before. In addition, the strategic position of rare earths has risen, the pricing logic has been reshaped, and there have been fewer low-priced sales, resulting in an overall improvement in the market situation.

Supply side: Multiple contractions form a ‘perfect storm’
Myanmar is the most important source of heavy rare earths in the world, accounting for about 57% of China’s total rare earth imports. Since 2026, Myanmar’s mineral imports have plummeted by 42% year-on-year. Some ports have restricted customs clearance, directly cutting off the supply of key medium and heavy rare earth raw materials. At the same time, Vietnam has legislated to ban the export of rare earth ore since that year, further cutting off external supplementary channels. The second batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2026 will significantly decrease by 19% compared to the second batch in 2025, shifting from an increase to a decrease. The quota for mining medium and heavy rare earths has maintained zero growth for several consecutive years. In addition, the market originally expected that recycling rare earths could increase supply, but some recycling companies were unable to obtain complete legal certificates for their waste sources, resulting in unsold products and even forced production cuts and shutdowns. The supply of recycled rare earths did not increase as scheduled, and the heavy rare earth market rose.
Policy side: Rising strategic position, reshaping pricing logic
On June 15th, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law of the People’s Republic of China officially came into effect, and 36 key minerals including rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, gallium, germanium, etc. were officially included in the national strategic mineral resources catalog. This marks the official shift of rare earth pricing from cyclical products to a “strategic resource+policy constraint” driven logic, with national policies benefiting the domestic rare earth market.
Demand side: Double click between AI and new energy, increasing demand
Dysprosium oxide is the core raw material of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC). According to estimates, the combination of AI servers and MLCC for new energy vehicles will bring an additional demand for 1500 tons of dysprosium in 2027, while the global annual supply is only about 3500 tons, and 90% of the production capacity is controlled by China. Japanese MLCC giant Murata has only 30 days of dysprosium inventory left, and production stoppage in July and August is a high probability event. The supply-demand gap has just been torn apart, and the price elasticity is huge. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 55%, and the demand for permanent magnet motors has rigidly increased. In addition, due to policy driven energy efficiency standards for wind power and industrial motors, the penetration rate of rare earth permanent magnet motors continues to rise, leading to an improvement in demand and a rise in the heavy rare earth market.
Market forecast: Starting from 2026, the global supply and demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, and rare earth prices are expected to remain stable with some progress; In addition, the price of heavy rare earths has shown a significant downward trend, and the price center continues to rise. Since June, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have risen, with prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal all showing an upward trend. As of the 17th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.415 million yuan/ton, an increase of 10.98%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.37 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.93%; The price of dysprosium metal is 1.945 million yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 9.53%.

The geopolitical issues in the Middle East have eased, with crude oil significantly weakening and poor cost support leading to a significant decline in the PTA market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on June 16th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6127 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.34% from the previous trading day.

The crude oil market experienced a significant decline on Monday, June 15th, with the prices of the two main crude oil futures plummeting simultaneously. The settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $80.75 per barrel, a decrease of $4.13 or 4.9%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $83.17 per barrel, a decrease of $4.16 or 4.8%. Continuing the downward trend from last Friday, it hit a new low in three months. Due to the substantial easing of the geopolitical situation between the United States and Iran, the two sides have reached a memorandum of understanding, and the expectation that the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume navigation has led to a rapid disappearance of the risk premium supporting oil prices. However, in terms of fundamentals, a short-term pullback does not mean that the energy supply crisis is completely resolved, and the medium and long-term trend of oil prices still faces multiple games and uncertainties.
In terms of supply, PTA production has fluctuated and rebounded, with current PTA production increasing to around 68%, indicating an increase in market supply. With the restart of some maintenance equipment, the PTA inventory reduction in June has narrowed, and inventory reduction will continue in July.
In terms of demand, downstream polyester filament and short fiber manufacturers continue to reduce production to maintain prices, while there are signs of improvement in weaving end procurement and sales. The production of Jiangsu and Zhejiang elastic looms has increased for two consecutive weeks. Although the current situation of weak terminal demand has not changed, the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is at a historical low, and there is an expectation of replenishment. But the foreign trade orders are weak, and the expectations for textile and clothing exports from Europe and America are average. Therefore, there is a strong wait-and-see attitude, making it difficult to have sustained purchasing pull.
Analysts believe that the short-term cost center has shifted downward, with no significant improvement in demand during the off-season, and prices are still adjusting weakly with fluctuations.

In the first half of June, the domestic ABS market continued to decline, with most grades of spot prices decreasing. According to data from Shengyishe Spot News, as of June 15th, the average price of ABS sample products was 9266.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.63% from the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter June, the equipment load of the domestic ABS industry has decreased at a low level, and the overall operating rate within the range has slightly dropped to around 58%. The current weekly average production is less than 125000 tons. At the same time, the inventory of finished products has not decreased but increased, currently approaching around 230000 tons. The shipment situation of the aggregation plant remained sluggish within half a month, and the short-term production trend in the future was stable with a small increase. Overall, the ABS supply side provided sufficient support for spot prices in the first half of June.
Cost factor: Since June, there have been frequent reports of preliminary peace agreements between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. As the middle of the month approaches, high-level officials from both sides are intensively releasing positive signals. Although it will take some time for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to resume, the market predicts that the Middle East conflict is easing and oil prices are once again plummeting. Affected by it, the cost value of the upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the petrochemical chain, has been dragged. The cost value of acrylonitrile has decreased, and downstream consumption is weak. However, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has once again declined, and the supply side continues to shrink. Low price spot resources on the market are also gradually being digested. The buying trend in the spot market has been followed up, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized, reaching a temporary bottom. However, without positive guidance, the rebound momentum is still insufficient.
The domestic butadiene market experienced a decline after consolidation in the first half of June. Although some companies have fulfilled their maintenance obligations, downstream end products have poor profits and there is a lack of inventory expansion operations. Butadiene is also dragged by the current market trend of synthetic rubber, and it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to consolidate at a low level.
For the past half month, the styrene market has continued to decline. From the perspective of raw materials, although the decline of pure benzene has slowed down compared to the end of May, it still maintains a negative trend. However, the domestic supply of goods has shifted from tight to balanced, and coupled with the lack of effective driving force for styrene consumption, the market lacks upward momentum. In the second half of the month, there are plans to restart multiple sets of styrene plants in China. In the medium to long term, the supply and demand of styrene will weaken and prices will be under pressure.
On the demand side: In the first half of June, there were limited changes in the start-up situation of downstream ABS enterprises. The main terminal appliance industry has officially entered the off-season, with poor consumption of appliance casings and no improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises. The atmosphere inside the venue is buying up instead of buying down, and there has been a significant reduction in replenishing and building positions. However, merchants engage in low price buyback operations, while the buyer camp has a high resistance to high priced goods. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
In the first half of June, the domestic ABS market continued to decline. The production load of the aggregation plant has fluctuated narrowly at a low level, but inventory has accumulated and the on-site supply remains within a sufficient range. The overall trend of cost and material is weak. The current supply-demand contradiction of ABS is still prominent, with a loose focus on spot prices and relatively quiet trading on the market.