1、 Trend analysis

Nickel prices have fluctuated widely this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 129783 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from the beginning of the week and up 7.95% year-on-year.
Macroscopically, long and short positions are intertwined at the macro level. Influenced by the unexpected announcement of the US Treasury Secretary to expand the scale of long-term treasury bond bond repo, the US dollar weakened, the nonferrous metals sector strengthened as a whole, and nickel prices were boosted. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has once again released hawkish signals, with multiple officials leaning towards raising interest rates, and market trading logic shifting towards the risk of another rate hike within the year. The situation in the Middle East continues to fluctuate, with both the United States and Iran continuing to make tough statements, and cross-strait shipping has not yet resumed. Domestically, the LPR remained unchanged in August, and the fixed assets investment fell significantly in July, with real estate still the main drag. Although the macro atmosphere has warmed up, the fundamentals still lack directional driving.
Supply side: The overall supply side is relatively loose. Indonesia’s RKAB quota policy has entered a close game stage, with more than ten companies approved for revision, and expectations of quota relaxation are heating up. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines has announced that it has begun approving quota increases for some companies RKAB, but the specific amount has not been disclosed. In terms of refined nickel, the global explicit inventory has returned to a high level of accumulation, with a weekly increase to 395000 tons. LME nickel inventory is reported at 268488 tons, with 112277 tons of nickel inventory from the previous period. The explicit inventory of approximately 380000 tons in both domestic and foreign markets constitutes the core suppression. China’s refined nickel inventory is about 116600 tons, and the overall supply is abundant.
On the demand side: The overall demand side is weak. In terms of stainless steel, traditional consumer demand is weak during the off-season, and downstream acceptance of high priced resources is limited. Transactions only show a temporary recovery before returning to a flat state. This week, steel mills have significantly loosened their prices, and the profit margin of 304 cold rolling has turned negative, causing steel mills to fall into cost inversion. The inventory of 300 series stainless steel has increased to 586000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.56%, further highlighting the contradiction between supply and demand. In terms of new energy, the production of ternary cathode materials in July was 89220 tons, an increase of 2.48% compared to the previous month. However, downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to purchase, mainly for essential needs. Overall, the two main lines of nickel demand – stainless steel rigid bottom support and cautious replenishment of battery nickel – are difficult to provide strong support.
Influencing factors: The main factors affecting nickel prices this week include: firstly, the uncertainty of Indonesia’s RKAB quota policy continues to disrupt the market, with expectations of quota relaxation alternating with expectations of supply tightening; Secondly, high global inventory is the core factor suppressing the rebound in nickel prices. LME inventory is approaching the 270000 ton mark, and the explicit inventory of about 380000 tons, both internally and externally, forms a solid resistance band; Thirdly, mining costs provide bottom support, with Indonesia’s HMA nickel price rising to $16960/ton in the second half of August, and sulfur prices operating at a high level; Fourthly, at the macro level, the weakening of the US dollar and the hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve are mutually pulling each other, and nickel prices are fluctuating with the non-ferrous sector.

In summary, the nickel market showed a pattern of “high inventory suppression, cost support, and weak supply and demand” last week. Although the macro sentiment has warmed up, the trend of nickel in the non-ferrous sector is relatively under pressure due to high inventory. The approval result of Indonesia’s RKAB quota is still a core concern in the market. If the quota increment is lower than expected, it may drive nickel prices to recover upwards. If new quotas are concentrated and implemented, the rebound space will be limited. Looking ahead to next week, nickel is expected to maintain range fluctuations, with a focus on the progress of Indonesia’s quota approval, LME inventory changes, and downstream replenishment willingness.

1、 Trend analysis
Copper prices have slightly decreased this week. As of August 21st, the copper price was reported at 107893.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.79% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 36.93%.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 239925 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 15.45% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the US CPI rose by 3.4% year-on-year in July, while the core CPI slowed down to 2.5%; PPI rose 4.7% year-on-year, lower than expected. Inflation continues to cool down, coupled with lower than expected non farm employment, the market’s pricing for the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate hike has dropped to around 35%, and the US dollar index has fallen to the 99th level, ushering in a valuation repair window for commodities. But the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting released a hawkish signal, with long-term US bond yields rising again and geopolitical risks continuing to suppress risk appetite.
Supply side: Global copper mine supply contraction intensifies, with Chile’s copper production in the first half of the year decreasing by 6.7% year-on-year and Peru’s copper production in June decreasing by 4.7% year-on-year. This week, Las Bambas mine was temporarily shut down due to an accident, and Caserones mine’s recovery was hindered by a snowstorm. BHP has lowered its production guidance. Copper concentrate TC has fallen to a historical low of -175.37 US dollars per dry ton, making it difficult to alleviate the short-term shortage situation in the mining sector.
On the demand side: Currently in the off-season of consumption, high copper prices significantly suppress downstream purchasing intentions, and market transactions are mainly driven by essential needs. The domestic spot price has changed from a premium of 80 yuan/ton to a discount of 170 yuan/ton. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises is 65.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.08 percentage points. The operating rate of refined copper is still weak year-on-year, and the overall consumption in traditional fields is weak.
Influencing factors:
Positive factors: cooling inflation in the United States, falling expectations of interest rate hikes, weakening of the US dollar, and improvement in macroeconomic sentiment; The long-term contradiction of insufficient capital expenditure in global copper mines persists, with deep negative TC values, making it difficult to alleviate the shortage at the mining end; COMEX and LME inventories are severely differentiated, putting pressure on spot liquidity in non US regions; The peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” is approaching, and the demand for new energy and other fields continues to grow.
Negative factors: LME inventory is rapidly recovering, squeezing sentiment is easing, and copper prices are being suppressed; Traditional consumption is suppressed by high prices during the off-season, and downstream purchasing intentions are insufficient, resulting in the continuation of the spot discount pattern; The Federal Reserve’s policy expectations are fluctuating, long-term bond yields are rising, and geopolitical risks persist; The US tariff policy is currently the biggest variable, and its implementation may trigger a “win-win” adjustment.
In summary, copper prices have surged and fallen this week, putting pressure on LME as it approaches historical highs. On the macro level, the cooling of inflation and the expected decline in interest rate hikes provide support, but long-term bond rates and geopolitical risks suppress sentiment. The shortage of mining resources has not changed, but LME inventory has rebounded to alleviate the pressure of short selling; The demand side is weak overall due to the combination of low season and high price suppression. The core contradiction – supply constraints at the mining end and structural mismatch of inventory – has not undergone fundamental changes.
In the short term, LME inventory continues to rise and the squeeze sentiment eases, putting pressure on copper prices to fluctuate and adjust. However, the mining sector is tight and TC continues to weaken, coupled with the support of the expected peak consumption season, there may not be much room for adjustment. In the medium to long term, the logic of insufficient capital expenditure and expansion of emerging demand in copper mines still holds true.

In August, domestic nitrile rubber first fell and then rose with a narrow range of fluctuations. According to the commodity market analysis system, as of August 20th, the price was 17000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.64% from 16725 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of August 20th, Lanhua Nitrile N41E in East China offered a price range of 17200 to 17300 yuan/ton; The mainstream price for 2665 in Russia ranges from 16400 to 16500 yuan/ton.

Multiple sets of cracking units for upstream raw material butadiene supply have been overhauled, resulting in a month on month decline in domestic production. The inventory of ports in East China has dropped to around 32000 tons, and there is a shortage of imported cargo arriving at the port. Spot resources have tightened, and coupled with the rise in crude oil prices again, butadiene manufacturers have strong efforts to raise prices. Data shows that the price of butadiene has risen from 10016 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12000 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.80%; The acrylonitrile industry has maintained a production rate of 69-71%, with some units undergoing periodic maintenance, and overall it is at a relatively low level. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of acrylonitrile has risen from 11133 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11866 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.59%.
On the supply side, domestic nitrile rubber enterprises maintain a high operating rate of 82% -86%, with low factory inventory and strong willingness from manufacturers to raise prices; The pace of imported goods arriving at the port has slowed down, and the arrival of Japanese and Korean goods at the port has declined month on month. The shortage of spot goods of tight brands has formed a bottom support.
The demand side remains the main drag, with seal and hose sample enterprises operating at 48% -53% capacity. The nitrile glove industry is experiencing differentiated production, with downstream operations generally running at low inventory levels. Raw material procurement is mainly driven by rigid demand, with weak willingness to proactively replenish inventory and limited acceptance of high prices. Traditional off-season orders have not shown significant volume growth, suppressing upward potential.
Market forecast:
Nitrile rubber experienced a continuous decline for three months in the early stage, and the price was found to be at a low level in early July. From July to August, nitrile rubber hit the bottom and stabilized, rebounding. The 5/10 day moving average took the lead in turning upwards, standing above the 20, 30, and 60 day moving averages, completing the bullish repair of the moving average. The current price is above various moving averages, indicating a short-term rebound pattern; The recent upward trend has slowed down and entered a period of oscillation and grinding.
Overall, the short-term volatility of nitrile rubber is dominant, with limited downward space. Butadiene and crude oil are core variables, and if monomers continue to strengthen, there will be a slight upward trend in spot prices; If the raw materials fall, the market will follow suit and weaken. There are expectations for the “Golden September” in September, but whether downstream product production can rebound still needs to be verified.

Since August, the domestic PTA market has shown an overall trend of “first stabilizing and oscillating, then rising strongly”, and the overall price has shown a significant increase in upward momentum.
In early August, the PTA market was under overall pressure and fluctuated, with flat market trading. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark spot price in East China remained at around 5945 yuan/ton, with narrow fluctuations in price. The market was balanced between long and short positions, with smooth fluctuations in upstream costs and insufficient follow-up of downstream textile demand. Coupled with the stable operation of some equipment, the supply and demand were relatively balanced, and the market lacked clear upward momentum.
Starting from mid August, the PTA market experienced a strong rebound, with prices rapidly rising. Due to factors such as centralized maintenance of equipment and weather affecting logistics transportation, the domestic PTA operating rate fell to a low point this year, and the market spot supply significantly contracted, while social inventory continued to deplete, highlighting the tight supply pattern. The steady rise in international crude oil and PX raw material prices has provided strong support for PTA on the cost side, leading to a surge in the market. As of August 19th, the spot price of PTA surged to 6310 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 6.13% during the month.
Analysts believe that in the short term, there is no sign of easing in the confrontation between the United States and Iran, and the pattern of high volatility in crude oil is difficult to change, which continues to build a cost bottom for PTA. In addition, the rebound in demand has further boosted the upward trend of the market, with downstream polyester factories steadily increasing their operating rates to around 82%. The traditional textile peak season stocking demand has started, and the pace of replenishing inventory for essential needs has accelerated, effectively digesting the market’s stock of goods and further consolidating the basis for price increases. However, in late August, multiple sets of maintenance equipment on the supply side were restarted, and the increase in market supply was released, gradually easing the tight supply-demand balance and suppressing the momentum of price increases. Therefore, PTA will maintain a high and wide range of fluctuations from late August to early September, and we still need to pay attention to the geopolitical news of crude oil, the progress of equipment resumption, and the recovery of downstream orders.

Since August, the domestic natural rubber market has fluctuated and risen. As of August 17th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 17133 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.94% from 16483 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. ​
The supply side’s strong production season resulted in lower than expected increase in production, with strong cost support. Since August, frequent rainfall in Thailand and Vietnam has disrupted rubber cutting, and Thai cup rubber has maintained a high level of around 67 baht/kg, with strong support from raw material costs for natural rubber. Yunnan Province in China continues to experience heavy rainfall, while Hainan is approaching a halt to logging, resulting in limited production of adhesive. The supply of raw materials is tight both domestically and internationally.
The inventory side continues to destocking, with a total inventory of 642100 tons at Qingdao Port as of August 16, a slight destocking of 2900 tons compared to the previous month; The futures warehouse receipts of the previous exchange fell synchronously, easing the pressure of explicit inventory and limiting the downward space.
The demand side is in the off-season of summer, with insufficient upward momentum. As of August 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 64.32%, while the operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 63.01%. Finished product inventory remains high, with domestic tire companies having 40.2 days of full steel tire finished product inventory and 46.1 days of semi steel tire finished product inventory. Factories mainly adopt on-demand procurement and have a weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. ​
Recently, market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have risen, and risk appetite has been restored; The strengthening of international crude oil prices has pushed up the cost of synthetic rubber, highlighting the comparative advantage and indirectly boosting trading sentiment in the natural rubber market. ​
Market forecast:
From a fundamental perspective, the short-term market for Tianjiao is expected to fluctuate within a range. The peak season for rubber cutting in Southeast Asia has suppressed the upward potential of rubber prices, but rainfall and El Ni ñ o hazards in production areas may bring pulse like fluctuations. Domestic port inventory is slowly decreasing, with low warehouse receipts providing bottom support; Tires are still in the off-season, with limited recovery in production. Downstream demand is mainly driven by essential purchases, making it difficult for demand to drive upward trends.
In September, tires enter the traditional peak season, and factory stocking is expected to drive the recovery of production, resulting in a slight increase in rubber prices. At the same time, overseas monetary policies and crude oil will also disrupt the market for Tianjiao.

The trend of antimony markets at home and abroad has shown significant differentiation this week. Overseas antimony ingot prices continue to decline, while antimony oxide prices remain relatively firm. The domestic antimony price has ended a half month continuous rise, and the game between upstream and downstream in the market has intensified. The overall market has entered a period of oscillation and adjustment. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market fluctuated and rose from August 1 to 17, 2026. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 88250 yuan/ton, and the average price on the 17th was 95750 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 8.5%.

Supply side:
The overall trend of overseas antimony ingots is weak, with prices continuing to decline, while the price of antimony oxide remains firm. The domestic supply of raw materials is tight, and the rainy season in Myanmar has not yet ended, resulting in continued restrictions on land transportation of raw materials. The cost of purchasing antimony ore from smelters remains high, coupled with smelting and processing expenses, and spot prices have fallen to near the cost line of some enterprises. Enterprises are unwilling to sell at low prices and actively control quantity and raise prices. The spot market has both low-priced circulating sources from traders and high quoted sources from smelters, and the structure of spot sources is clearly stratified.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. The overall pace of downstream procurement this week has cooled down compared to the previous price increase stage. At the beginning of the week, we observed the downstream market entering the purchasing window when spot prices surged and fell, but the overall purchasing scale was limited, and the performance of various downstream industries was uneven.
Antimony oxide: The current flame retardant market is in the traditional off-season of consumption, and the overall demand in the industry is weak. Although upstream bromine prices have risen due to tight supply and cost support, it has not led to an improvement in terminal demand. Downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and traditional peak season stocking has not yet started. The overall pace of essential procurement is flat.
Photovoltaics: The demand for photovoltaic glass has remained relatively stable, with the industry’s daily melting rate maintaining a high level of operation. Currently, there is no large-scale production reduction situation, which provides sustained rigid support for antimony products. However, the market terminal demand is under pressure, and there is always an expectation of production reduction in the industry, with limited incremental space at this stage.
Market forecast:
This round of antimony price correction is a reasonable correction after the previous continuous rise. In the short term, with the support of high raw material procurement costs and smelter price control, the downward space for antimony prices is limited. Coupled with market expectations for demand recovery during the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season, antimony prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate overall. It is expected that the domestic antimony ingot price will maintain a range oscillation in the short term, and the price of antimony oxide will fluctuate synchronously with the market.

1、 Trend analysis

This week, copper prices first rose and then fell. As of August 14th, copper prices were reported at 108103.33 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the beginning of the week and up 35.96% year-on-year.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 207725 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 4.8% from the beginning of the week.
Macro wise: This week’s macro sentiment first suppressed and then rose. At the beginning of the week, the market continued to digest the US non farm payroll data that fell short of expectations, and the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates eased slightly; During the week, there was an increase in hawkish voices within the Federal Reserve, and concerns about interest rate hikes escalated; At the end of the week, the US July CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI fell to 2.5%. After confirming the cooling of inflation, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped sharply to about 70%. The weakening of the US dollar directly benefits the financial pricing of copper. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in July has fallen below the boom bust line, and domestic demand momentum continues to be weak.
Supply side: The shortage pattern in the mining sector continues to deepen, and the spot processing fee (TC) for copper concentrate has fallen to a deep negative range, hitting a record low of negative $175.7 per ton on August 7th. Due to severe shortages of raw materials, China’s refined copper production in August is expected to be 1.05 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.83%, marking the second consecutive month of year-on-year decline; In July, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased by 1.59% month on month, mainly due to difficulties in purchasing waste anode plates and centralized maintenance of smelters. The ban on the export of copper concentrate from the Democratic Republic of Congo has disrupted the market, but its actual impact is limited.
On the demand side: This week is in the off-season of traditional consumption, and high copper prices have significantly suppressed downstream procurement. The operating rate of domestic copper rod enterprises is only 59.3%, and terminals such as cables and enameled wires are continuously suppressed by high copper prices; The spot price of Shanghai copper has rapidly shifted from premium to discount, and the price of flat copper has dropped to around 300 yuan/ton discount. Downstream purchases are mainly made at low prices due to strong demand, and there is a lack of willingness to chase after high prices. However, the demand for emerging industries remains resilient, and the year-on-year increase of 12.6% in power grid investment provides structural support for copper consumption.
Influencing factors: The inventory side shows significant differentiation – LME copper inventory has been declining for 42 consecutive trading days, setting a record for the longest continuous destocking since 2014; COMEX inventory continued to increase to approximately 666000 tons, reflecting the siphon effect of North American cargo grabbing. The US tariff policy is undecided, and the market is waiting for whether to announce the imposition of tariffs on copper before the end of September. In addition, the rebound in demand for AI is seen by the market as an important driving force behind this round of price increases, reshaping the medium and long-term demand logic of the copper market.
In summary, copper prices have fluctuated at a high level in the macro and fundamental long short game this week, with extremely low inventory and scarce minerals forming a solid bottom. However, weak consumption during the off-season and high copper prices have suppressed upward elasticity. Looking ahead to next week, copper prices are expected to remain strong.

As of August 13, 2026, the spot market price of gold was 954.24 yuan/gram, an increase of 7.67% yuan/gram compared to the spot market price of 886.23 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month (August 1).

On August 13th, the price of gold continued to decline, and in terms of spot trading:
On August 13, 2026, the benchmark price of Shanghai Gold (gold ingots with a standard weight of 1 kilogram and a purity of not less than 99.99%; pricing contract) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 950.18 yuan/gram in the afternoon session, down 6.26 yuan/gram (-0.65%) from the earlier benchmark price of 956.44 yuan/gram; Compared to the benchmark price of 955.85 yuan/gram in the afternoon session of the previous trading day, it has decreased by 5.67 yuan/gram (-0.59%).
In terms of futures:
On August 13, 2026, the opening price of the Shanghai Gold Main Contract was 964.38 yuan/gram, and the closing price was 952.96 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.26% from yesterday’s settlement price of 955.44 yuan/gram; Compared to the closing price of 888.30 yuan/gram on July 31st, it has increased by 7.28%.
Reasons for the recent rebound of precious metal gold
Since mid July, the prices of precious metals have continued to rebound, driven by the weakening of US economic data, which has led the market to lower expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The actual yield of US bonds and the US dollar index have fallen temporarily, reducing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals; Combined with the previous price oversold, which triggered short covering and long capital backflow, global central banks continued to purchase gold, forming bottom support. The easing of the Middle East situation weakened energy inflation concerns, further improving market sentiment. Silver benefited from the dual logic of financial attributes and industrial demand, showing more flexibility.
Future forecast of precious metal gold prices
This round of precious metal gold recovery belongs to oversold repair rebound. Short term high volatility may digest profit taking, but global central bank gold purchases provide bottom support, limiting significant downward space. Short term gold prices tend to fluctuate strongly and are prone to rise but difficult to fall. The Jackson Hole annual meeting at the end of August is a turning point in direction; The medium-term volatile upward trend still exists, but the volatility is extremely high.

This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China saw a slight increase. On August 3rd, the average market price was 426920 yuan/ton, and as of August 12th, the average market price was 427550 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15%.
At this stage, the tin price has emerged from a roller coaster trend of “rapid rise and fall” – the front part of the mining end is tight and low inventory drives it to surge to 435540 yuan/ton and trigger a super rise, while the rear part is afraid of high sentiment and the marginal loosening of internal and external inventory leads to a rapid decline to around 427000 yuan/ton.

fundamentals
Supply side: The tight mining situation has not changed, but there are signs of looseness at the margin
Supply side constraints remain the core support for tin prices. The resumption of tin mining in the Wa State of Myanmar has been slower than expected due to the rainy season, mining area restoration, and production material supply restrictions; Due to export quotas and local smelting policies, Indonesia’s refined tin exports have significantly shrunk year-on-year; The Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo has raised concerns about mining operations. The overall supply from the mining end maintains a tight balance pattern.
However, there are some loose signals at the margin: Indonesia’s previously blocked export ships due to policy ambiguity have fully resumed operations, and imports of tin ingots from Indonesia may rebound in the later stage; Although the raw material supply of domestic smelting enterprises is still tight, the recent increase in processing fees has shown signs of easing the tight mining situation.
Demand side: Dual line repair provides resilience, but high prices suppress inventory replenishment
The demand side shows a structural rebound but the overall volume is suppressed:
Semiconductor recovery: The resumption of semiconductor packaging and testing has driven the replenishment of solder orders, and the expansion of AI computing infrastructure has driven the use of high-end PCB tin.
Volume of photovoltaic solder: The demand for photovoltaic solder strips forms the second demand clue, and the increase in component production scheduling drives the growth of tin solder usage.
New energy vehicles: The onboard solder and power components are stably supported by tin.
But currently in the off-season of electronic consumption, the downstream is clearly afraid of high tin prices, and solder companies lack the willingness to maintain essential procurement and actively replenish inventory. The spot market is affected by off-season factors and price trends, resulting in unstable trading conditions.
Inventory end
LME inventory: fell to 5795 tons on August 7th, continuing to hit a historic low, with spot premiums expanding. On August 10th, it slightly rebounded to 5640 tons (+50 tons), and on August 11th, it increased by another 50 tons, accumulating a small amount of inventory for two consecutive days, ending the previous trend of continuous depletion.
Domestic inventory: SHFE warehouse receipt reported 5199 tons on August 11th.
Comprehensive analysis: Short term high volatility is relatively weak
Downward risk: LME inventory has increased for two consecutive days, ending the continuous trend of destocking; Downstream fear of heights and urgent procurement are the main focus; Macro level US inflation data is about to be released, and market sentiment is cautious.
Upward support: The tight mining situation has not fundamentally changed; LME inventory remains at historically low levels; Provide bottom support for semiconductor+photovoltaic dual line demand repair.

On August 11, 2026, the reference market price for domestic silicon metal # 441 was 9300 yuan/ton, which increased by 20 yuan/ton or 0.22% compared to August 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9280 yuan/ton).
1、 Trend analysis

Since August, the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal 441 # has remained stable, followed by a slight upward trend. At the beginning of the month, the market price of metal silicon 441 # remained stable with little fluctuation within the market. On August 11th, the market price of metal silicon 441 # slightly increased to a narrow range, with some regions raising the market price by about 50 yuan/ton. As of August 11th, the domestic market price of metal silicon is around 9000-9450 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
Supply side: Recently, the overall supply of silicon metal in the market has decreased, with some regions or facilities reducing production or entering periodic maintenance. The overall operating rate of the market has decreased, and the tightening of the supply side has provided some market support, driving market prices to rise.
In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream market for silicon metal in the organic silicon industry is still undergoing an overall anti involution and production reduction. It is expected that the overall operating rate of the market will be lowered in the later stage, and the demand for silicon metal will also decrease. Jinjiu is coming soon, and the downstream polysilicon market demand may see a certain increase. The demand for downstream aluminum alloy ingots in the market remains basically stable. Narrow improvement in supply and demand conduction of metallic silicon.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is average, and it remains to be seen whether the destocking performance of the metal silicon spot market and the market demand can continue to improve. However, there is currently cost support, and the market situation has a certain bottoming out momentum. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend, and specific attention needs to be paid to the resumption of production in some regions and downstream start-up situations.